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Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Payton and Barry

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  • bchaikin@aol.com
    ... are ... still have ... D), but ... lynch - thats ... .....Welllll.... The numbers suggest otherwise. The Sixers offensive and defensive ratings were
    Message 1 of 41 , Feb 28, 2002
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., bchaikin@a... wrote:
      > right now the 76ers are playing about .500, and the reason is they
      > missing two great defenders - tyrone hill and george lynch. they
      still have
      > iverson (great scorer) and mutombo (great center - rebs and plays
      D), but
      > they have derrick coleman and matt harpring instead of hill and
      lynch - thats
      > the difference...

      ".....Welllll....  The numbers suggest otherwise.  The Sixers' offensive
      and defensive ratings were 102.2 and 97.8 last season, resp.  This
      year, they are 98.9 and 97.7 (roughly, thru 2/17).  The big decline
      is in the offense.  [Technically, having done estimates of
      possessions this year and checked against games, it could be that
      this year's ratings go up about 1% due to inaccuracies in the 0.4
      multiplier in the formula.  Doesn't change the story, though.]...."

      sure...make me eat my words.....my humbliest apologies, you are absolutely correct. my diatribe on the 76ers was a surficial look (without objectively looking at the data - no excuse however) and i was wrong, and i should have known better (didn't stop me tho!:)) . after looking at the numbers (using doug steeles data for this season), i come to the same conclusion. last year the 76ers scored 1.023 pts per team possession, and gave up 0.983 pts per opp team possession. this year their offense is down to 1.002 pts per team off possession, but the defense is close to last years mark at 0.988 pts per opp team possession. this year's defense is slightly worse than last year's, but the offense is significantly worse - the defense is up .005 pts/poss but the off down .021, four times worse. without looking at the individual player data yet tho, can't say why this is...

      as for iverson i still believe (subjectively, not objectively) that he is a worse than average defender for an SG, not including steals or blocks, i.e. when it comes to denying his man the ball, preventing him from scoring, etc. - based on what i've seen. he was definitely (again opinion) the 76ers worst defender of last years starting five (snow, he, lynch, hill, ratliff/mutombo), but would love to be convinced otherwise. do you have any data showing otherwise...

      bob chaikin, bchaikin@...

    • Dennis Keefe
      ... ..... And my 4-1 resistor model basically ... I suppose there would be some Celtics who agree with the 4-1 model: Like Bob Cousy, who didn t do defense,
      Message 41 of 41 , Mar 2, 2002
        --- HoopStudies <deano@...> wrote:
        > But
        > maybe it is more like 4 resistors in parallel and
        > with 1 resistor
        > (the center) in series. Centers really can define
        > how good a defense
        > is, even if their teammates are not good. Maybe
        > that is the case to
        > be made about Iverson.
        And my 4-1 resistor model basically
        > means that only
        > centers should win Defensive Player of the Year
        > awards. Maybe that
        > is ok.
        > DeanO

        I suppose there would be some Celtics who agree with
        the 4-1 model: Like Bob Cousy, who didn't do defense,
        since he had Russell in the last half of his career.
        Bird, of course, had Robert Parish.

        I suspect there might be some minor exceptions (Jerry
        West, Jason Kidd, Gary Payton, Bobby Jones, Dennis
        Johnson, John Havlicek, etc.) who might provide a
        benefit beyond the 4, but overall my intuition says
        your model would fit pretty well. And of course the
        model would probably need to be stochastic if you're a
        real stickler, but a simple discrete 4-1 model I bet
        would do a pretty decent job. (I'll bet a nickel.)
        dennis keefe

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