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Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Jump Shots

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  • Michael K. Tamada
    ... But when looking at field goals, surely we d have to EXPECT to see differences in shooting percentages. Last year the Knicks held their opponents to 41.7%
    Message 1 of 8 , Feb 25, 2002
      On Sun, 24 Feb 2002, HoopStudies wrote:

      > No. Tversky looked at both foul shots and field goals. I've got 3
      > papers that he and Gilovich wrote. I suppose I could scan them in
      > sometime.

      But when looking at field goals, surely we'd have to EXPECT to see
      differences in shooting percentages. Last year the Knicks held their
      opponents to 41.7% shooting whereas the Warriors opponents shot 47.2%.
      Not only would we expect players to have better shooting nights against
      the Warriors, those stats show that they DID have better shooting nights.

      This doesn't address the issue of hot streaks inside a game (maybe teams
      shoot 37.2% against the Warriors in some quarters and 57.2% against them
      in other quarters), but those inside-the-game hot streaks (assuming
      they exist) are only one type of hot streak. Indeed, I think rather than
      identifying hot streaks that turn on and off during a game, most fans
      think of hot streaks along the lines of "well Reggie was certainly on
      fire last night wasn't he" i.e. big games.


      > Is this true? I did a quick ttest of Van Exel's performances against
      > Seattle vs the rest of his career and there was no significant
      > differences. Van Exel has had 8 single digit scoring nights against
      > Seattle, 5 games of 25 pts or more. I've definitely never noticed an
      > effect or even heard of it until it was raised here a little while
      > ago.

      Well the relatively small sample sizes involving head-to-head matchups are
      going to make it hard to reject a number of null hypotheses. How do
      the means compare? Van Exel's averaged about 15 points per game overall.
      Against the Sonics, he's fallen short of that average by 5 points or more
      eight times; he's exceeded that average by 10 points or more five times.
      Even just on those numbers, it sounds like he tends to score more against
      the Sonics than he does on average.


      > > "hot streak".
      > I'd just be curious to see how well you all predict it.

      To me a better test of hot streaks or perhaps more accurately hot games is
      seeing how players' shooting percentages vary from game to game. Actually
      not just their percentage, one would have to take into account the number
      of times they shot too. Needless to say, some games a player will shoot
      80% and some games he'll shot 20%. The question is, does this variation
      exceed that which we would expect to see from, say, the binomial model?
      My expectation is yes, simply on the basis that sometimes the opponent is
      the Warriors and sometimes the Knicks.

      Now as for free throws, I don't have any particular expectation that a hot
      hand exists. But field goal streaks could be created by crummy defense,
      and stopped by good defense. And teams and players do differ on the
      quality of the defense they play.

      I guess I'll have to look at those Tversky articles. Lack of hot hand for
      free throws I can believe. Lack of hot hand for field goals within a
      game I could also believe, although if we had detailed information on who
      the defenders at each point in time were, we might find something. But a
      hot hand for field goals between games is something that I would expect to

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