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Re: Jerry's 57: Example net pts

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... with ... higher ... yield ... No problem. I ve only partially explained what the methods are and, given my current 70 hr/week schedule, that s all it s
    Message 1 of 3 , Apr 11, 2001
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., msg_53@h... wrote:
      > Deano: do rebounds count at all in your "points produced"
      > (not "ratings")lists ?
      > The reason I ask is, I tried like heck to reconcile your lists
      with
      > mine, and the big obstacle seems to be that I rank rebounders
      higher
      > than you do. Rebounds do not produce points directly, but they
      yield
      > possessions, which may lead to points.
      > Pardon my ignorance.

      No problem. I've only partially explained what the methods are and,
      given my current 70 hr/week schedule, that's all it's gonna be for a
      while.

      Rebounds definitely go into points produced, but only offensive
      rebounds. Defensive rebounds go into the defensive rating.
      Offensive rebounds are credited for what they are worth on a team.
      On a team that shoots horribly, they are worth more.

      Basically, I calculate the team's floor percentage with offensive
      rebounds and subtract off their floor percentage without them. The
      weight I generally assign to ORs is

      ScPoss/(Poss + OR)

      where

      ScPoss = FG + (1-(1-FT%)^2)*0.4*FTA
      Poss = FGA - OR + 0.4*FTA + TO

      This is only partially accurate. I have noticed that ORs tend to
      increase the likelihood of scoring, whereas this assumes that they do
      not.

      You then also have to take away credit from guys who have benefitted
      from the ORs. That's a bit more complicated.

      Generally, though, I agree that a big difference between what I do
      and what others do is in rebounds. Other people effectively weight
      them more heavily than I do. Mine actually have a pretty big weight
      defensively, but few people have had much credit coming from
      offensive rebounds. (This is quite different from HS ball, where
      offensive rebounds end up much more important by my theory/formula.)

      I would, however, submit that defensive rebounds really don't produce
      points. Nor do steals or blocks. They end an opponent's possession.
      (They can create points, but this is almost negligible
      statistically.) They are defensive stats. Including them in the
      offense makes what you're calculating not measurable or confirmable.
      That's why I keep them separate. It still makes for an approximate
      value technique, which is what you do.

      Does that help?

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
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