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Jerry's 57: Example net pts

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  • Dean Oliver
    Just because Jerry Stackhouse had a big game, I figured I d look at my former Tar Heel mate to show the difference between the Net Point calculations I make.
    Message 1 of 3 , Apr 3, 2001
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      Just because Jerry Stackhouse had a big game, I figured I'd look at my
      former Tar Heel mate to show the difference between the Net Point
      calculations I make.

      Version 1 is

      Points Produced - Poss*DRtg/100

      Version 2 is

      Points Produced - MIN*TmPoss/TMMIN*DRtg/100

      Basically, I can calculate the number of points produced by a player, but
      then what is the number of points allowed??? In Version 1, a player is
      assumed to allow points only on possessions he uses at an efficiency given
      by his defensive rating. In Version 2, a player is assumed to allow
      points at the same efficiency (his defensive rating), but the number of
      possessions he faces is now estimated as the average number of possessions
      during the minutes he plays.

      What is better? Neither. There is no real physical meaning to either
      because no one player is a team (even Jerry). In this game, I estimate
      Jerry to be either +16 or +33 -- a big difference (though either number is
      awesome). I have no way to reality-check the numbers other than making
      sure that the team totals add up -- and they do. Detroit won by 27 and
      both columns add up to about 26.

      But that is the difference between the 2 NetPt calcs I presented for the
      season for "Top Players in 2001".

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
      www.tsoft.com/~deano/index.html
      deano@...
    • msg_53@hotmail.com
      Deano: do rebounds count at all in your points produced (not ratings )lists ? The reason I ask is, I tried like heck to reconcile your lists with mine, and
      Message 2 of 3 , Apr 11, 2001
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        Deano: do rebounds count at all in your "points produced"
        (not "ratings")lists ?
        The reason I ask is, I tried like heck to reconcile your lists with
        mine, and the big obstacle seems to be that I rank rebounders higher
        than you do. Rebounds do not produce points directly, but they yield
        possessions, which may lead to points.
        Pardon my ignorance.
      • Dean Oliver
        ... with ... higher ... yield ... No problem. I ve only partially explained what the methods are and, given my current 70 hr/week schedule, that s all it s
        Message 3 of 3 , Apr 11, 2001
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          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., msg_53@h... wrote:
          > Deano: do rebounds count at all in your "points produced"
          > (not "ratings")lists ?
          > The reason I ask is, I tried like heck to reconcile your lists
          with
          > mine, and the big obstacle seems to be that I rank rebounders
          higher
          > than you do. Rebounds do not produce points directly, but they
          yield
          > possessions, which may lead to points.
          > Pardon my ignorance.

          No problem. I've only partially explained what the methods are and,
          given my current 70 hr/week schedule, that's all it's gonna be for a
          while.

          Rebounds definitely go into points produced, but only offensive
          rebounds. Defensive rebounds go into the defensive rating.
          Offensive rebounds are credited for what they are worth on a team.
          On a team that shoots horribly, they are worth more.

          Basically, I calculate the team's floor percentage with offensive
          rebounds and subtract off their floor percentage without them. The
          weight I generally assign to ORs is

          ScPoss/(Poss + OR)

          where

          ScPoss = FG + (1-(1-FT%)^2)*0.4*FTA
          Poss = FGA - OR + 0.4*FTA + TO

          This is only partially accurate. I have noticed that ORs tend to
          increase the likelihood of scoring, whereas this assumes that they do
          not.

          You then also have to take away credit from guys who have benefitted
          from the ORs. That's a bit more complicated.

          Generally, though, I agree that a big difference between what I do
          and what others do is in rebounds. Other people effectively weight
          them more heavily than I do. Mine actually have a pretty big weight
          defensively, but few people have had much credit coming from
          offensive rebounds. (This is quite different from HS ball, where
          offensive rebounds end up much more important by my theory/formula.)

          I would, however, submit that defensive rebounds really don't produce
          points. Nor do steals or blocks. They end an opponent's possession.
          (They can create points, but this is almost negligible
          statistically.) They are defensive stats. Including them in the
          offense makes what you're calculating not measurable or confirmable.
          That's why I keep them separate. It still makes for an approximate
          value technique, which is what you do.

          Does that help?

          Dean Oliver
          Journal of Basketball Studies
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