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Shaq and Kobe

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  • Dean Oliver
    After doing the defensive study a few messages ago, I realized that Shaq and Kobe have now both missed a fair amount of time with the Lakers and they both have
    Message 1 of 2 , Mar 28, 2001
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      After doing the defensive study a few messages ago, I realized that
      Shaq and Kobe have now both missed a fair amount of time with the
      Lakers and they both have been blamed for the Lakers defensive woes
      this year. So I decided to take a look using the same methodology as
      before...

      With Player Without Player
      Off. Rtg. Def. Rtg. Off. Rtg. Def. Rtg.
      Shaq 107.0 104.1 99.8 97.4
      Bryant 106.2 103.2 105.8 104.3

      Well, this is starting to say something. The Lakers defense is
      actually much better when Shaq is not on the floor and it is
      statistically significant at 5%. Neither of the differences without
      Bryant are statistically significant.

      What this shows is that Shaq is vital to the Laker offense. Without
      him, they hurt a lot. On the other hand, Shaq is hurting the Laker
      D, a dramatic difference from a year ago. Having seen the Lakers
      several times this year, I certainly would have blamed Shaq first,
      Kobe second for the defensive problems. This tends to support that,
      but I would definitely not have expected the big difference shown
      here. (Remember, as mentioned before, this type of study reflects a
      player vs. his subs. Madsen, Foster, and Grant get increased time
      when Shaq is out. Shaq, Fox, and George get increased time when
      Bryant is out.)

      Finally, to be fair, the games without Shaq have had the following
      opponents:

      den
      van
      nyk
      cle
      min
      cha
      sac
      pho

      All but Sacramento and Minnesota are mediocre offensively. Kobe's
      missed games are against a more mixed bag of competition. I really
      should be apply a Kalman filter to the results to account for
      strength of schedule. That, unfortunately, is not automatic. Maybe
      next month.

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
    • Dean Oliver
      ... Err, Shaw, Fox, and George get increased time when Bryant is out. Not Shaq, Shaw.
      Message 2 of 2 , Mar 29, 2001
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
        > when Shaq is out. Shaq, Fox, and George get increased time when
        > Bryant is out.)
        >

        Err, Shaw, Fox, and George get increased time when Bryant is out. Not
        Shaq, Shaw.
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