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Re: the Bad Team Effect

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  • mikel_ind
    ... were ... be ... This may be a good example of why the +/- value is sometimes screwy. Payton was carrying the Sonics, basically. The team wasn t the same
    Message 1 of 10 , Feb 5, 2002
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Michael K. Tamada" <tamada@o...> wrote:
      >
      > Obviously there are a lot of contaminating factors with plus-minus
      > ratings: who were Greg's teammates on the floor? Which 5 players
      were
      > they facing? And compared to Payton, just about any PG is going to
      be
      > looking relatively bad.

      This may be a good example of why the +/- value is sometimes screwy.
      Payton was carrying the Sonics, basically. The team wasn't the same
      without him. Unless his backup was pretty good (capable of
      starting), there would be a pronounced difference.

      Put another way: without Payton, the Sonics sucked; and Anthony was
      the one guy that was always in when Payton was out.

      > So there are things that go on beyond simply switching teams from
      good to
      > bad or bad to good. Even within a season, without switching teams
      or
      > positions, a player's stats can change; in the case of Anthony those
      > statistical changes reflect a true change in his quality of play.

      Actually, in 4 of the 5 groups I delineated, players seem to do worse
      their first year after a trade. Even if they are up to speed by mid-
      year, the effects of the bad 1st-half will show.

      The only group that showed improvement upon trading was best-to-worst
      (team) players, and it was about 1%, and probably attributable to
      more regular minutes.

      It looks like Anthony going from Vancouver to Seattle caused his
      productivity to drop about 10% for the year. (see Sheet 3, column AC)


      Mike Goodman
    • mikel_ind
      ... Yep, Anthony is way up from last year, particularly in assists, which have almost tripled (3.0 to 8.1, per-36 min.). ... points/assists ... is ... Anthony
      Message 2 of 10 , Feb 5, 2002
        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "alleyoop2" <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
        > You could practically create your own micro-study just with Greg
        > Anthony. I was reading this the other day and then it occurred to
        >me
        > that after this year he will AGAIN be at the top of the good-to-bad
        > list when his Portland to Chicago move gets put in.

        Yep, Anthony is way up from last year, particularly in assists, which
        have almost tripled (3.0 to 8.1, per-36 min.).

        > To me, there's two good tests for a rating system. One is the David
        > Wesley Test - when a guy changes positions so that his
        points/assists
        > rates are altered, he still should rate about the same. The second
        is
        > the Greg Anthony Test - when a guy goes from a good team to a crap
        > team or vice versa, he should still rate about the same.

        Anthony is obviously a guy who needs minutes, but not every player
        fits this mold. He gets assists, when asked to be the PG, and his
        scoring doesn't suffer.

        You just never know how a given player will respond to being asked to
        do more or less. Truck Robinson went from Phoenix to New York and
        was relieved of his scoring duties (he was playing alongside Bernard
        King). Truck complained like hell, and basically gave up.

        Vin Baker's problems cannot be attributed to his going to a better
        team.

        Every case is different, and even players who remain in place can
        suddenly swoon or burst into greatness one year.


        Mike Goodman
        > > >
      • Michael K. Tamada
        ... It s true that Payton was (and still is) a PG of paramount importance to his team. But not quite as much as you seem to be implying here. Remember, in
        Message 3 of 10 , Feb 5, 2002
          On Wed, 6 Feb 2002, mikel_ind wrote:

          > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Michael K. Tamada" <tamada@o...> wrote:
          > >
          > > Obviously there are a lot of contaminating factors with plus-minus
          > > ratings: who were Greg's teammates on the floor? Which 5 players
          > were
          > > they facing? And compared to Payton, just about any PG is going to
          > be
          > > looking relatively bad.
          >
          > This may be a good example of why the +/- value is sometimes screwy.
          > Payton was carrying the Sonics, basically. The team wasn't the same
          > without him. Unless his backup was pretty good (capable of
          > starting), there would be a pronounced difference.

          It's true that Payton was (and still is) a PG of paramount importance to
          his team. But not quite as much as you seem to be implying here.
          Remember, in 1998 the Sonics won 61 games. (Actually, I did not remember
          this stuff, I had to look it up.) They were therefore not like the Sonics
          of 2002 and 2001 who are/were a slightly-above .500 team WITH Payton, and
          much worse than .500 without him. One-man teams do not win 61 games.

          The 1998 Sonics had a second-team all-NBA power forward, Vin Baker.
          Detlef Schrempf was just one year off his last all-star year. Dale Ellis,
          Hersey Hawkins, and Sam Perkins provided role-playing long-distance
          bombing support.

          So with any kind of decent backup PG, the Sonics were not a team that
          would fall one point per minute behind its opposition. In fact, I'd say
          that without Payton, but with a decent backup PG they were a team that was
          probably around .500 level, and therefore a backup PG should have about a
          zero plus/minus rating. Certainly not -1 point per minute, as Greg
          Anthony had early on.

          > Put another way: without Payton, the Sonics sucked; and Anthony was

          That's an accurate description of the Sonics in 2002 and 2001 and for that
          matter 2000 and 1999 (the year that Baker went bust). But not accurate in
          1998, when Anthony was there. A more accurate description would be that
          without Payton, the Sonics were mediocre -- or should have been. But
          Anthony early in the season was making them suck at a point per minute.

          > the one guy that was always in when Payton was out.

          There's more to it than that: that's the way the Sonics (and Anthony)
          played in the first half of the season, but in the second half Anthony was
          highly productive. I didn't keep plus/minus stats then but I wouldn't be
          surprised if he was close to 0 in the second half of the season.



          --MKT
        • mikel_ind
          Michael T: I stand corrected, and henceforth I will either look it up, or leave Sonics commentary to the many Sonics fans in the group. ... that ... But ...
          Message 4 of 10 , Feb 6, 2002
            Michael T: I stand corrected, and henceforth I will either look it
            up, or leave Sonics commentary to the many Sonics fans in the group.

            --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Michael K. Tamada" <tamada@o...> wrote:

            > On Wed, 6 Feb 2002, mikel_ind wrote:
            >
            > > without Payton, the Sonics sucked; and Anthony was
            >

            >..... A more accurate description would be
            that
            > without Payton, the Sonics were mediocre -- or should have been.
            But
            > Anthony early in the season was making them suck at a point per
            minute.
            >
            > > the one guy that was always in when Payton was out.
            >
            > There's more to it than that: that's the way the Sonics (and
            Anthony)
            > played in the first half of the season, but in the second half
            Anthony was
            > highly productive. ...>
            >
            > --MKT

            Anthony played 13 mpg (80 G), Payton played 38 mpg; Nate McMillan
            even played 279 minutes that year. So GP and Anthony had to be on
            the floor together for at least 1/3 of the minutes Anthony played.

            So I was wrong all over.

            But I do concur that Anthony's year-end stats suggest he was one of
            the better backup PGs in '98.


            Mike Goodman
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