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Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Shane Battier - a great player?

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  • Coach McCormick
    Of course, there is no guarantee that the shot would have gone in had it not been blocked. So your argument works both ways. If you miss a steal/block and are
    Message 1 of 22 , Jan 28, 2005
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      Of course, there is no guarantee that the shot would have gone in had it not been blocked. So your argument works both ways. If you miss a steal/block and are not sure whether the miss is punished by the made basket, you cannot say the steal/block prevented a made basket. It may have prevented a missed shot.

      bchaikin@... wrote:
      The thing with both shot blocks and steals is that a missed attempt isn't recorded.
       
      agreed -
       
      but, that still does not negate the fact that both a steal and a block - when they do indeed occur - are positive (and excellent) defensive plays. you can assume all you want that by going for a steal and block and by not getting it may put you in a worse defensive position, but are you trying to intimate that it is in some way bad to try for steals and blocks? if so i have yet to see any data supporting this (you may be quite right, i just haven't seen any data to support this - just coaching lore)...
       
      on the contrary, i can easily show you data (such that harvey pollack used to keep for the 76ers in his nba statistical yearbook) that for example very good shot blockers, even when they don't block a shot, many times alter the flight path of the shot such that the shot doesn'y go in. he called these "intimidations", and when he kept track of these for 76ers players like shawn bradley and manute bol, his data revealed that they stopped just as many if not more shots from going in without physically touching the shot than they did with their actual blocks....

      If Raef LaFrentz goes for a block and misses, and as a result his man gets an easy follow dunk on the rebound, that isn't recorded.
       
      i'm sure this occurs, and often. but on the other hand what about all those times lafrentz goes for a block, misses the block, but forces the shooter to alter the shot just enough that it still does not go in? that is still an excellent play because then on average the defense will get about 2/3 of the available rebounds of that missed shot. again anything preventing a shot from going in in the 1st place is good defense...
       
      If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about five times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that isn't recorded either.
       
      correct - it is not recorded. but iverson has throughout his career averaged 2.5 steals per game. that's 2.5 opponent team possessions where they do not score. if he misses another 5 times, are you saying you know the opponent will score more than 2.5 of those times? those steal attempts that are missed may result in a 5 on 4 situation, but i don't know that the opponent will score more often or not than if iverson hadn't gone for a steal. the assumption may assuredly be true, but i have yet to see any data supporting it (i don't mean from you, i mean anywhere, pollack's books, roland's website, etc)...
       
      if you don't get a steal but play great defense and force a shot to be missed, your opponent still has on average about a 1/3 chance to get an offensive rebound. but when you do get a steal you end their possession and stop them from scoring...

      I actually think Eaton's blocks might have been as valuable as you say, or at least somewhere close to it. Utah was first or second in the league in FG% defense in most of his best seasons. But the thing about Eaton is that he could get those blocks without jumping half the time, and almost never took himself out of the play. Tim Duncan is like that, too. But most of the top guys in blocks and steals aren't.
      i certainly don't believe that there is an nba coach out there that is telling their players not to go for blocks or steals because that would put their team in a worse defensive position. they always say don't commit fouls, but i doubt they say don't go for good defensive plays like ST and BS....
       
      also players who do get alot of steals and blocks do not commit significantly more fouls than players who do not. in a previous posting (APBR posting 19440) i showed the foul rates for players who got 200+ BS or ST in a season, 150+ BS or ST, and 100+ BS or ST, versus those that didn't, and it wasn't even 1-2% more fouls per 100 minutes on average...
       
      bob chaikin
       
       
       
       
       
       
       


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    • Stephen Greenwell
      If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about five times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that isn t recorded either.
      Message 2 of 22 , Jan 28, 2005
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        If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about five
        times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that
        isn't recorded either.

        Out of curiosity, has anyone ever looked at what NBA players shoot when they're WIDE OPEN?  I'm talking about practice, game time, etc.  From anecdotal experience, I generally shoot about the same (or at least I think I do!) assuming I have a clean look and don't have to alter a shot - The distance of the guy/girl from me doesn't matter.

        Even if there *is* a difference, does the increase in shooting percentage negate the value of an occasional block or steal?  For example, does Iverson's man improve from a 40 to 75 percent shooter if he's left unguarded?  Can anyone shoot a jumper for this high of a percentage even if they're left wide open?  Watching players in practice, I've seen some people go on streaks of 3 to 10 threes in a row, but I've also seen this in a game where the shot sample size is much smaller.  At what point does improved shooting percentage from an out-of-position defender make up for steals and blocks generated?

        I doubt there are answers to all (or any) of my questions, but I'm interested to know if anyone has any thoughts.

        Stephen Greenwell
      • Philip Maymin
        I tracked practice shots for a variety of players in shootaround before the media access times (the real shootaround as opposed to the one for the fans) and
        Message 3 of 22 , Jan 29, 2005
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          I tracked practice shots for a variety of players in shootaround
          before the media access times (the "real" shootaround as opposed to
          the one for the fans) and though it seemed a little higher, especially
          when someone initially unexpected like Richard Jefferson started
          nailing consecutive very long threes halfway to halfcourt, when I
          compared the percentages they weren't all that different from his game
          performances. There's a confirmatory bias at work if you just watch
          someone shoot: you dismiss a couple clanks as "near hits", a bunch of
          clanks as "warming up," and when they hit a couple in a row you think
          they are 100%. Turns out your experience is about right in that the
          defender tends not to matter too much, though I don't have an
          extremely large sample size. Certainly free throw shooting didn't seem
          to be any different in practice than in games.


          On Sat, 29 Jan 2005 02:03:21 -0500, Stephen Greenwell
          <sgre6768@...> wrote:
          > If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about five
          > times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that
          > isn't recorded either.
          > Out of curiosity, has anyone ever looked at what NBA players shoot when
          > they're WIDE OPEN? I'm talking about practice, game time, etc. From
          > anecdotal experience, I generally shoot about the same (or at least I think
          > I do!) assuming I have a clean look and don't have to alter a shot - The
          > distance of the guy/girl from me doesn't matter.
          >
          > Even if there *is* a difference, does the increase in shooting percentage
          > negate the value of an occasional block or steal? For example, does
          > Iverson's man improve from a 40 to 75 percent shooter if he's left
          > unguarded? Can anyone shoot a jumper for this high of a percentage even if
          > they're left wide open? Watching players in practice, I've seen some people
          > go on streaks of 3 to 10 threes in a row, but I've also seen this in a game
          > where the shot sample size is much smaller. At what point does improved
          > shooting percentage from an out-of-position defender make up for steals and
          > blocks generated?
          >
          > I doubt there are answers to all (or any) of my questions, but I'm
          > interested to know if anyone has any thoughts.
          >
          > Stephen Greenwell
          > ________________________________
          > Yahoo! Groups Links
          > To visit your group on the web, go to:
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        • Roland Beech
          We ve done some charting of contested versus uncontested shots, and yes there is quite a difference: http://www.82games.com/saccon.htm ... From: Stephen
          Message 4 of 22 , Jan 29, 2005
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            We've done some charting of contested versus uncontested shots, and yes there is quite a difference:
             
            ----- Original Message -----
            Sent: Friday, January 28, 2005 11:03 PM
            Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Shane Battier - a great player?

            If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about five
            times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that
            isn't recorded either.

            Out of curiosity, has anyone ever looked at what NBA players shoot when they're WIDE OPEN?  I'm talking about practice, game time, etc.  From anecdotal experience, I generally shoot about the same (or at least I think I do!) assuming I have a clean look and don't have to alter a shot - The distance of the guy/girl from me doesn't matter.

            Even if there *is* a difference, does the increase in shooting percentage negate the value of an occasional block or steal?  For example, does Iverson's man improve from a 40 to 75 percent shooter if he's left unguarded?  Can anyone shoot a jumper for this high of a percentage even if they're left wide open?  Watching players in practice, I've seen some people go on streaks of 3 to 10 threes in a row, but I've also seen this in a game where the shot sample size is much smaller.  At what point does improved shooting percentage from an out-of-position defender make up for steals and blocks generated?

            I doubt there are answers to all (or any) of my questions, but I'm interested to know if anyone has any thoughts.

            Stephen Greenwell
          • Coach McCormick
            I ve seen Peja Stojakovic make about 25-30 threes in a row in practice. Heck, I saw Mateen Cleaves make 10 in a row... Philip Maymin
            Message 5 of 22 , Jan 29, 2005
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              I've seen Peja Stojakovic make about 25-30 threes in a row in practice. Heck, I saw Mateen Cleaves make 10 in a row...

              Philip Maymin <pmaymin@...> wrote:
              I tracked practice shots for a variety of players in shootaround
              before the media access times (the "real" shootaround as opposed to
              the one for the fans) and though it seemed a little higher, especially
              when someone initially unexpected like Richard Jefferson started
              nailing consecutive very long threes halfway to halfcourt, when I
              compared the percentages they weren't all that different from his game
              performances. There's a confirmatory bias at work if you just watch
              someone shoot: you dismiss a couple clanks as "near hits", a bunch of
              clanks as "warming up," and when they hit a couple in a row you think
              they are 100%. Turns out your experience is about right in that the
              defender tends not to matter too much, though I don't have an
              extremely large sample size. Certainly free throw shooting didn't seem
              to be any different in practice than in games.


              On Sat, 29 Jan 2005 02:03:21 -0500, Stephen Greenwell
              <sgre6768@...> wrote:
              > If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about five
              > times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that
              > isn't recorded either.
              > Out of curiosity, has anyone ever looked at what NBA players shoot when
              > they're WIDE OPEN?  I'm talking about practice, game time, etc.  From
              > anecdotal experience, I generally shoot about the same (or at least I think
              > I do!) assuming I have a clean look and don't have to alter a shot - The
              > distance of the guy/girl from me doesn't matter.
              >
              > Even if there *is* a difference, does the increase in shooting percentage
              > negate the value of an occasional block or steal?  For example, does
              > Iverson's man improve from a 40 to 75 percent shooter if he's left
              > unguarded?  Can anyone shoot a jumper for this high of a percentage even if
              > they're left wide open?  Watching players in practice, I've seen some people
              > go on streaks of 3 to 10 threes in a row, but I've also seen this in a game
              > where the shot sample size is much smaller.  At what point does improved
              > shooting percentage from an out-of-position defender make up for steals and
              > blocks generated?
              >
              > I doubt there are answers to all (or any) of my questions, but I'm
              > interested to know if anyone has any thoughts.
              >
              > Stephen Greenwell
              > ________________________________
              > Yahoo! Groups Links
              > To visit your group on the web, go to:
              > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/
              >  
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              >  
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            • John Hollinger
              I m with you on that -- I ve seen NBA players (and not even good ones) make an amazing number of consecutive 3s in warm ups. ... practice. Heck, I saw Mateen
              Message 6 of 22 , Jan 30, 2005
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                I'm with you on that -- I've seen NBA players (and not even good
                ones) make an amazing number of consecutive 3s in warm ups.


                --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Coach McCormick
                <highfivehoopschool@y...> wrote:
                > I've seen Peja Stojakovic make about 25-30 threes in a row in
                practice. Heck, I saw Mateen Cleaves make 10 in a row...
                >
                > Philip Maymin <pmaymin@g...> wrote:I tracked practice shots for a
                variety of players in shootaround
                > before the media access times (the "real" shootaround as opposed to
                > the one for the fans) and though it seemed a little higher,
                especially
                > when someone initially unexpected like Richard Jefferson started
                > nailing consecutive very long threes halfway to halfcourt, when I
                > compared the percentages they weren't all that different from his
                game
                > performances. There's a confirmatory bias at work if you just watch
                > someone shoot: you dismiss a couple clanks as "near hits", a bunch
                of
                > clanks as "warming up," and when they hit a couple in a row you
                think
                > they are 100%. Turns out your experience is about right in that the
                > defender tends not to matter too much, though I don't have an
                > extremely large sample size. Certainly free throw shooting didn't
                seem
                > to be any different in practice than in games.
                >
                >
                > On Sat, 29 Jan 2005 02:03:21 -0500, Stephen Greenwell
                > <sgre6768@p...> wrote:
                > > If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about
                five
                > > times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that
                > > isn't recorded either.
                > > Out of curiosity, has anyone ever looked at what NBA players
                shoot when
                > > they're WIDE OPEN? I'm talking about practice, game time, etc.
                From
                > > anecdotal experience, I generally shoot about the same (or at
                least I think
                > > I do!) assuming I have a clean look and don't have to alter a
                shot - The
                > > distance of the guy/girl from me doesn't matter.
                > >
                > > Even if there *is* a difference, does the increase in shooting
                percentage
                > > negate the value of an occasional block or steal? For example,
                does
                > > Iverson's man improve from a 40 to 75 percent shooter if he's left
                > > unguarded? Can anyone shoot a jumper for this high of a
                percentage even if
                > > they're left wide open? Watching players in practice, I've seen
                some people
                > > go on streaks of 3 to 10 threes in a row, but I've also seen this
                in a game
                > > where the shot sample size is much smaller. At what point does
                improved
                > > shooting percentage from an out-of-position defender make up for
                steals and
                > > blocks generated?
                > >
                > > I doubt there are answers to all (or any) of my questions, but I'm
                > > interested to know if anyone has any thoughts.
                > >
                > > Stephen Greenwell
                > > ________________________________
                > > Yahoo! Groups Links
                > > To visit your group on the web, go to:
                > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/
                > >
                > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
                > > APBR_analysis-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
                > >
                > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
                Service.
                >
                >
                > ---------------------------------
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                >
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              • Dean Oliver
                Even worse, I ve seen me make 8 in a row. A hand in the face matters. How you do it matters. When you do it matters. Defense is what I did... because I
                Message 7 of 22 , Jan 30, 2005
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                  Even worse, I've seen me make 8 in a row.

                  A hand in the face matters. How you do it matters. When you do it
                  matters. Defense is what I did... because I certainly couldn't make 8
                  in a row in a game.

                  DeanO

                  Dean Oliver
                  Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics
                  Author, Basketball on Paper
                  http://www.basketballonpaper.com
                  "Oliver's book provides an insightful framework for basketball. His
                  approach highlights and simplifies the basic goals of team offenses
                  and defenses, with an interesting description of how teamwork among
                  players with different roles can be evaluated. This book is a unique
                  and surprisingly practical addition to a coach's library." Dean
                  Smith, Hall of Fame Basketball Coach, University of North Carolina


                  --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Coach McCormick
                  <highfivehoopschool@y...> wrote:
                  > I've seen Peja Stojakovic make about 25-30 threes in a row in
                  practice. Heck, I saw Mateen Cleaves make 10 in a row...
                  >
                  > Philip Maymin <pmaymin@g...> wrote:I tracked practice shots for a
                  variety of players in shootaround
                  > before the media access times (the "real" shootaround as opposed to
                  > the one for the fans) and though it seemed a little higher, especially
                  > when someone initially unexpected like Richard Jefferson started
                  > nailing consecutive very long threes halfway to halfcourt, when I
                  > compared the percentages they weren't all that different from his game
                  > performances. There's a confirmatory bias at work if you just watch
                  > someone shoot: you dismiss a couple clanks as "near hits", a bunch of
                  > clanks as "warming up," and when they hit a couple in a row you think
                  > they are 100%. Turns out your experience is about right in that the
                  > defender tends not to matter too much, though I don't have an
                  > extremely large sample size. Certainly free throw shooting didn't seem
                  > to be any different in practice than in games.
                  >
                  >
                  > On Sat, 29 Jan 2005 02:03:21 -0500, Stephen Greenwell
                  > <sgre6768@p...> wrote:
                  > > If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about
                  five
                  > > times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that
                  > > isn't recorded either.
                  > > Out of curiosity, has anyone ever looked at what NBA players shoot
                  when
                  > > they're WIDE OPEN? I'm talking about practice, game time, etc. From
                  > > anecdotal experience, I generally shoot about the same (or at
                  least I think
                  > > I do!) assuming I have a clean look and don't have to alter a shot
                  - The
                  > > distance of the guy/girl from me doesn't matter.
                  > >
                  > > Even if there *is* a difference, does the increase in shooting
                  percentage
                  > > negate the value of an occasional block or steal? For example, does
                  > > Iverson's man improve from a 40 to 75 percent shooter if he's left
                  > > unguarded? Can anyone shoot a jumper for this high of a
                  percentage even if
                  > > they're left wide open? Watching players in practice, I've seen
                  some people
                  > > go on streaks of 3 to 10 threes in a row, but I've also seen this
                  in a game
                  > > where the shot sample size is much smaller. At what point does
                  improved
                  > > shooting percentage from an out-of-position defender make up for
                  steals and
                  > > blocks generated?
                  > >
                  > > I doubt there are answers to all (or any) of my questions, but I'm
                  > > interested to know if anyone has any thoughts.
                  > >
                  > > Stephen Greenwell
                  > > ________________________________
                  > > Yahoo! Groups Links
                  > > To visit your group on the web, go to:
                  > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/
                  > >
                  > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
                  > > APBR_analysis-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
                  > >
                  > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
                  >
                  >
                  > ---------------------------------
                  > Yahoo! Groups Links
                  >
                  > To visit your group on the web, go to:
                  > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/
                  >
                  > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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                  >
                  > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  > ---------------------------------
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