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Re: [APBR_analysis] A thought

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  • bchaikin@aol.com
    this is an excellent idea and always fun, but for basketball today - probably moreso than the other major sports - not realistic unless you understand the
    Message 1 of 5 , Feb 4, 2002

      this is an excellent idea and always fun, but for basketball today - probably moreso than the other major sports - not realistic unless you understand the salary cap (which i don't and don't wish to)...

      statistical analysis is always fun - in particular determining thru analysis what attributes a team needs in a new player to balance and also improve what they've got, and then trying to find that player and seeing what it would take to get him. this is always key to improving a team's future fortunes, but now more than ever wholely unrealistic at the level of the nba without the cap being considered for any transaction. i just read that grizzlies center bryant reeves retired with back problems, and a few years back he was signed to a huge contract (by stu jackson i think) unbefitting a player of his caliber. so i think something like $10 million is against memphis' cap this year and $14 million next. so anything the team does is dependant on money available and not necessarily on the talent of a player(s) received via trades or free agency...

      i am a cleveland cavaliers fan, and we were strapped with shawn kemp's outrageous contract for a long time (how they managed to trade him and his contract was truly a stroke of genius - god bless paul allen) and then signed zydrunas ilgauskas to a maximum contract when it surely looked like he was the second coming of sam bowie and might not ever play again (he didn't play much in the next calendar year and is being limited to backup minutes now despite being the team best player). so many teams are "trapped" like the cavaliers, who now have second line players like brian skinner, ricky davis, and even wes person playing solid minutes to compliment ilgauskas and andre miller as they struggle thru a dozen game losing streak...

      plus any trades made today have to fit within "salary cap rules", such that (as i believe i understand it) the salary value of any players received must balance the value of the players being dealt away. this basically rules out any trades of veteran players for young players or vice versa unless others are "thrown in" to balance the $$$ books...

      bob chaikin
      bchaikin@...





    • mikel_ind
      ... and andre ... By my reckoning, Wesley Person is having a good year (after 3 seasons of decline), and should be starting for an NBA team. Standardized
      Message 2 of 5 , Feb 4, 2002
        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., bchaikin@a... wrote:
        >.... even wes person playing solid minutes to compliment ilgauskas
        and andre
        > miller as they struggle thru a dozen game losing streak...
        >
        By my reckoning, Wesley Person is having a good year (after 3 seasons
        of decline), and should be starting for an NBA team.

        Standardized production rates for Wes:

        in Phoenix:
        yr min pct sco. reb ast - Total
        95 23 .591 15.8 3.9 1.8 - 22.1
        96 32 .537 14.1 4.6 1.8 - 21.2
        97 29 .563 17.0 4.7 1.8 - 24.7

        in Cleveland:
        yr min pct sco. reb ast - Total
        98 39 .578 17.4 4.8 2.4 - 26.5
        99 30 .543 15.5 4.3 2.4 - 23.6
        00 26 .523 11.9 4.5 2.5 - 19.8
        01 22 .511 10.8 4.7 2.3 - 18.7
        02 35 .595 17.2 4.0 2.6 - 25.7
        ^^^ ^^^^ ^^^^

        Having career bests in shooting pct and assists, near best in scoring
        rate, Wes Person is having a resurgent season.

        I have the rest of the Cavs rated as such:

        36.7 A Miller
        29.4 Ilgauskas
        29.2 L Murray
        25.7 Person
        25.1 J Jones
        21.1 R Davis
        21.0 Mihm
        17.7 Stith
        17.2 Skinner
        17.0 Doleac
        14.3 Coles

        The Cavs have several good-all-around players, but very little punch
        off the bench. Without a top-notch rebounder, they seem to do
        alright with 8.5 rpg from their starting guards.

        A decent backup at most positions seems to be the big shortfall.



        Mike Goodman
      • bchaikin@aol.com
        wesley person is and always has been a one-trick pony - a good shooter. he is a luxury on a good team (a.k.a. steve kerr on the bulls/spurs) and a liability on
        Message 3 of 5 , Feb 4, 2002

          wesley person is and always has been a one-trick pony - a good shooter. he is a luxury on a good team (a.k.a. steve kerr on the bulls/spurs) and a liability on a poor team. person is a lifetime 50%+ on 2s and 40%+ on 3s and you're thinking "...who wouldn't take that?..."...

          the problem is that person has a possession factor (touches per minute) of 0.70 - 0.75, that is well below the average shooting guard. IF he was a good defender, IF he was a good rebounder, IF he got alot of steals, IF he did anything else other than shoot good he'd be a, for lack of a better term, two-trick pony, but he's not. he can't rebound, he can't play anything better than average D at most (and i think i'm being generous here), he doesn't get alot of steals, and on those nights where he isn't hitting his shots he's pretty much worthless if he's playing major minutes. he rarely if ever goes to the basket, and with such a low possession factor/touches-per-min that means someone else has to handle the ball more, and unless those people are good the team isn't being helped. i guarantee you he shouldn't be starting for an nba team, and is only starting for the cavs by default because stith is worthless and ricky davis is too erratic. very few players in this league who are good shooters only start for an nba team...

          "...the cavaliers have several good all-around players...". not sure who you are looking at here - or are you just trying to be politically correct in not saying bad things about some of the players? the cavaliers currently have the 4th worst record in the league (14-32) ahead of only memphis, chicago, and den. they have two really good players at best, and one isn't even playing much (andre miller and ilgauskas). this team doesn't even have several average all-around players...

          ricky davis and jumaine jones are former bench players getting now solid backup minutes (jones is starting some too). you typically only see this (two bench players the year before) on an expansion team or one chewed up with injuries. skinner is a journeyman at best. stith is a has been that never really had a lot of "has". doleac has shown very little in 3 years and mihm is only in his 2nd season and not progressing very well - he's on a team that needs frontcourt minutes and he's averaging less than 30 min/g on a team starved for frontcourt talent. coles is collecting a paycheck and lamond murray of all people is this team's "go-to" guy. no wonder andre miller has one of the highest possession factors in the league - no one else can get open, he often has to do it by himself....

          "...a decent backup at most positions seems to be the big shortfall..."? on the contrary, most of the players playing are backups. this team needs two starters just to play .500...

          if miller got hurt soon for the season, and ilgauskas continued to play all of 20 min/g, this team could easily lose 30 of its next 36 games and lose 60-65 games for the year...

          bob chaikin
          bchaikin@...











        • alleyoop2
          The Person-Murray-Jones-Davis combo on the wings looks good statwise. The problem is that none of them can guard their mother. In the case of Jones I m
          Message 4 of 5 , Feb 4, 2002
            The Person-Murray-Jones-Davis combo on the wings looks good statwise.
            The problem is that none of them can guard their mother. In the case
            of Jones I'm actually being literal: I'm really not sure the guy
            could guard his mother. Because of this, Cleveland is the worst
            defensive team in the league besides Atlanta; they've gotten better
            now that Stith's back but they're still pretty bad.

            I have them rated 20th offensively, which ain't great but is better
            than it sounds (they're near the bottom of a big cluster of teams).
            Andre helps get the other guys shots, and if they could play Z more
            than 20 minutes a night and had any other frontcourt players with a
            pulse they would have a pretty good offense. But it's the defense
            that kills them. Actually the lame frontcourt hurts their defense as
            much as their offense and makes the wing guys look even worse.






            --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "mikel_ind" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
            > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., bchaikin@a... wrote:
            > >.... even wes person playing solid minutes to compliment ilgauskas
            > and andre
            > > miller as they struggle thru a dozen game losing streak...
            > >
            > By my reckoning, Wesley Person is having a good year (after 3
            seasons
            > of decline), and should be starting for an NBA team.
            >
            > Standardized production rates for Wes:
            >
            > in Phoenix:
            > yr min pct sco. reb ast - Total
            > 95 23 .591 15.8 3.9 1.8 - 22.1
            > 96 32 .537 14.1 4.6 1.8 - 21.2
            > 97 29 .563 17.0 4.7 1.8 - 24.7
            >
            > in Cleveland:
            > yr min pct sco. reb ast - Total
            > 98 39 .578 17.4 4.8 2.4 - 26.5
            > 99 30 .543 15.5 4.3 2.4 - 23.6
            > 00 26 .523 11.9 4.5 2.5 - 19.8
            > 01 22 .511 10.8 4.7 2.3 - 18.7
            > 02 35 .595 17.2 4.0 2.6 - 25.7
            > ^^^ ^^^^ ^^^^
            >
            > Having career bests in shooting pct and assists, near best in
            scoring
            > rate, Wes Person is having a resurgent season.
            >
            > I have the rest of the Cavs rated as such:
            >
            > 36.7 A Miller
            > 29.4 Ilgauskas
            > 29.2 L Murray
            > 25.7 Person
            > 25.1 J Jones
            > 21.1 R Davis
            > 21.0 Mihm
            > 17.7 Stith
            > 17.2 Skinner
            > 17.0 Doleac
            > 14.3 Coles
            >
            > The Cavs have several good-all-around players, but very little
            punch
            > off the bench. Without a top-notch rebounder, they seem to do
            > alright with 8.5 rpg from their starting guards.
            >
            > A decent backup at most positions seems to be the big shortfall.
            >
            >
            >
            > Mike Goodman
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