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Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Shane Battier - a great player?

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  • bchaikin@aol.com
    Bob, Intuitively the FG% adjustment seems logical, but have you looked at stats that support the range of adjustment between +/- 5% . . is it possible if you
    Message 1 of 22 , Jan 27 9:30 AM
      Bob,

      Intuitively the FG% adjustment seems logical, but have you looked at stats that support the range of adjustment between +/- 5% . . is it possible if you take away a single good defensive player all other players defensive rating would be effected . For example looking at
      the Bulls data from 82games Griffith appears to have a 5.5% effect on the entire teams FG% allowed (and 8% effect from the average). Do you already adjust on team basis?

      PS Although just looking the FG% allowed results in some strange conclusions (like Griffin being more impactful than Wallace and Garnett on FG%)
       
      back in the late 1980s early 1990s when i first developed the simulation software i felt i had to come up with a way to increase and/or decrease opponent FG%s for the defense to work properly - on an individual player basis, not on a team basis (the simulation does not have any "team" ratings, just player ratings, because players can be traded from team to team). at that time i looked at the previous decade's worth of data and found that in any one season the largest difference between the best and worst shooting teams was about 9%, and the largest difference between the best and worst shooting teams over the span of a few seasons was about 11%. so i picked a happy medium of about 10%, figuring no one actual team would ever have all -5.0% players on defense at any one time nor all +5.0% players. but since using the computer game one could draft up players to create teams of drafted players, this could be done so the results had to be realistic...
       
      if you run a simulation of say 8200 games for a team, but first switch all of the players on a team to individual defensive ratings of -5.0%s, then do the same thing but switch all of that team's players to +5.0%, you'll see a swing of upwards of 20-25 games over 82 games (like making a 30-52 team a 55-27 team, or vice versa). keep in mind this means that no other player parameters were changed, i.e. all player rebounding ratings were still the same, as were their steals and blocks ratings, etc - just the individual defensive FG% ratings. so as you can see the individual defensive FG%s do indeed have a great deal to do with the results, which they should (i.e. as the 04-05 chi bulls and charlotte bobcats data in a previous posting showed)...
       
      now what would be even better is if we had data showing that certain players actually increase or decrease the amount of FGAs by the players they guard, not just increase or decrease their FG%s, and that may be coming soon, but i haven't had this kind of data over the past two decades (forced turnover data would be equally welcome to)...
       
      and keep in mind this individual defensive FG% rating is competely separate from a player's defensive ability to block shots (or get steals). thus a player who is a -5.0% on defense, but who also blocks alot of shots, has a much greater impact on decreasing an opponent team's FG% than a player with just a -5.0% individual defensive player rating who does not block alot of shots or a +5.0% defender who does block alot of shots. a defender's individual defensive FG% rating affects only the shooting of the opponent's player he guards directly (including those he picks up on defensive switches) but his shot blocking rating affects all opponent's FGAs, not just the player he is directly guarding..
       
      having said that keep in mind that the bulls griffin data you see at www.82games.com and quoted above is not an individual defensive mark, but what the team did when that person was in the game (and not in the game). valuable information, but not quite the same..
       
      also in developing the simulation shot blocking had to be of import, i.e. whenever a shot was attempted there had to be an opportunity for it to be blocked by the defense (i.e. the vast majority of the time the average FGA is not blocked). if it was not blocked it has to have a chance to go in (based on the shooting player's FG% and the defender's ability to increase or decrease that FG%), but if blocked have no chance of going in. so in the simulation you can determine the "value" of shot blocking (along with the value of other player abilities). so for example the year mark eaton blocked 456 shots for the jazz in the early/mid 1980s, i can run the sim with him blocking all those shots, then set his shot block rating to 0.0%, and when i do this playing him 36 min/g both ways, you'll see a swing of about 8 games - i.e. his 456 blocks, and those blocks alone, represent about 8 more wins for his team...
       
      bob chaikin
       
       
       
       
       

    • Coach McCormick
      Regarding the blocked shots, I can t see them being worth 8 games a season. Do you have stats on how many of those blocks the Jazz recovered vs how many the
      Message 2 of 22 , Jan 27 9:54 AM
        Regarding the blocked shots, I can't see them being worth 8 games a season. Do you have stats on how many of those blocks the Jazz recovered vs how many the offense recovered vs how many went out of bounds?
        bchaikin@... wrote:
        Bob,

        Intuitively the FG% adjustment seems logical, but have you looked at stats that support the range of adjustment between +/- 5% . . is it possible if you take away a single good defensive player all other players defensive rating would be effected . For example looking at
        the Bulls data from 82games Griffith appears to have a 5.5% effect on the entire teams FG% allowed (and 8% effect from the average). Do you already adjust on team basis?

        PS Although just looking the FG% allowed results in some strange conclusions (like Griffin being more impactful than Wallace and Garnett on FG%)
         
        back in the late 1980s early 1990s when i first developed the simulation software i felt i had to come up with a way to increase and/or decrease opponent FG%s for the defense to work properly - on an individual player basis, not on a team basis (the simulation does not have any "team" ratings, just player ratings, because players can be traded from team to team). at that time i looked at the previous decade's worth of data and found that in any one season the largest difference between the best and worst shooting teams was about 9%, and the largest difference between the best and worst shooting teams over the span of a few seasons was about 11%. so i picked a happy medium of about 10%, figuring no one actual team would ever have all -5.0% players on defense at any one time nor all +5.0% players. but since using the computer game one could draft up players to create teams of drafted players, this could be done so the results had to be realistic...
         
        if you run a simulation of say 8200 games for a team, but first switch all of the players on a team to individual defensive ratings of -5.0%s, then do the same thing but switch all of that team's players to +5.0%, you'll see a swing of upwards of 20-25 games over 82 games (like making a 30-52 team a 55-27 team, or vice versa). keep in mind this means that no other player parameters were changed, i.e. all player rebounding ratings were still the same, as were their steals and blocks ratings, etc - just the individual defensive FG% ratings. so as you can see the individual defensive FG%s do indeed have a great deal to do with the results, which they should (i.e. as the 04-05 chi bulls and charlotte bobcats data in a previous posting showed)...
         
        now what would be even better is if we had data showing that certain players actually increase or decrease the amount of FGAs by the players they guard, not just increase or decrease their FG%s, and that may be coming soon, but i haven't had this kind of data over the past two decades (forced turnover data would be equally welcome to)...
         
        and keep in mind this individual defensive FG% rating is competely separate from a player's defensive ability to block shots (or get steals). thus a player who is a -5.0% on defense, but who also blocks alot of shots, has a much greater impact on decreasing an opponent team's FG% than a player with just a -5.0% individual defensive player rating who does not block alot of shots or a +5.0% defender who does block alot of shots. a defender's individual defensive FG% rating affects only the shooting of the opponent's player he guards directly (including those he picks up on defensive switches) but his shot blocking rating affects all opponent's FGAs, not just the player he is directly guarding..
         
        having said that keep in mind that the bulls griffin data you see at www.82games.com and quoted above is not an individual defensive mark, but what the team did when that person was in the game (and not in the game). valuable information, but not quite the same..
         
        also in developing the simulation shot blocking had to be of import, i.e. whenever a shot was attempted there had to be an opportunity for it to be blocked by the defense (i.e. the vast majority of the time the average FGA is not blocked). if it was not blocked it has to have a chance to go in (based on the shooting player's FG% and the defender's ability to increase or decrease that FG%), but if blocked have no chance of going in. so in the simulation you can determine the "value" of shot blocking (along with the value of other player abilities). so for example the year mark eaton blocked 456 shots for the jazz in the early/mid 1980s, i can run the sim with him blocking all those shots, then set his shot block rating to 0.0%, and when i do this playing him 36 min/g both ways, you'll see a swing of about 8 games - i.e. his 456 blocks, and those blocks alone, represent about 8 more wins for his team...
         
        bob chaikin
         
         
         
         
         


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      • bchaikin@aol.com
        Regarding the blocked shots, I can t see them being worth 8 games a season. Do you have stats on how many of those blocks the Jazz recovered vs how many the
        Message 3 of 22 , Jan 27 10:41 AM
          Regarding the blocked shots, I can't see them being worth 8 games a season. Do you have stats on how many of those blocks the Jazz recovered vs how many the offense recovered vs how many went out of bounds?
           
          456 blocks in a season is about 5.5 per game. if you assume half of those shots would have gone in if they weren't blocked (50%, or even 45% or 40%), and for the sake of argument assume they were just 2pters, that means eaton alone with his shot blocking ability is saving a potential 4.4 pts/g - 5.5 pts/g. that's just with his blocks, not his ability to prevent shots going in by just playing defense other than with blocks...
           
          you don't think preventing 4-5 pts/g is worth at least 8 wins over the span of an 82 game season?...
           
          bob chaikin
           
           
           
           
           

        • tajallie@hotmail.com
          My question is that the simulation assigns team variance to individual player averages. Perhaps some players have much greater effects than +/- 5% even though
          Message 4 of 22 , Jan 27 3:50 PM
            My question is that the simulation assigns team variance to
            individual player averages. Perhaps some players have much greater
            effects than +/- 5% even though the overall effect of five players
            rarely deviates by more than that. Intuitively it seems logical that
            better defensive players will cover for poorer ones, thus smoothing
            the effects.


            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, bchaikin@a... wrote:
            > Bob,
            >
            > Intuitively the FG% adjustment seems logical, but have you looked
            at stats
            > that support the range of adjustment between +/- 5% . . is it
            possible if you
            > take away a single good defensive player all other players
            defensive rating
            > would be effected . For example looking at
            > the Bulls data from 82games Griffith appears to have a 5.5% effect
            on the
            > entire teams FG% allowed (and 8% effect from the average). Do you
            already
            > adjust on team basis?
            >
            > PS Although just looking the FG% allowed results in some strange
            conclusions
            > (like Griffin being more impactful than Wallace and Garnett on FG%)
            >
            > back in the late 1980s early 1990s when i first developed the
            simulation
            > software i felt i had to come up with a way to increase and/or
            decrease opponent
            > FG%s for the defense to work properly - on an individual player
            basis, not on
            > a team basis (the simulation does not have any "team" ratings,
            just player
            > ratings, because players can be traded from team to team). at that
            time i
            > looked at the previous decade's worth of data and found that in
            any one season
            > the largest difference between the best and worst shooting teams
            was about 9%,
            > and the largest difference between the best and worst shooting
            teams over the
            > span of a few seasons was about 11%. so i picked a happy medium of
            about
            > 10%, figuring no one actual team would ever have all -5.0% players
            on defense at
            > any one time nor all +5.0% players. but since using the computer
            game one
            > could draft up players to create teams of drafted players, this
            could be done
            > so the results had to be realistic...
            >
            > if you run a simulation of say 8200 games for a team, but first
            switch all
            > of the players on a team to individual defensive ratings of -5.0%s,
            then do the
            > same thing but switch all of that team's players to +5.0%, you'll
            see a
            > swing of upwards of 20-25 games over 82 games (like making a 30-52
            team a 55-27
            > team, or vice versa). keep in mind this means that no other player
            parameters
            > were changed, i.e. all player rebounding ratings were still the
            same, as were
            > their steals and blocks ratings, etc - just the individual
            defensive FG%
            > ratings. so as you can see the individual defensive FG%s do indeed
            have a great
            > deal to do with the results, which they should (i.e. as the 04-05
            chi bulls
            > and charlotte bobcats data in a previous posting showed)...
            >
            > now what would be even better is if we had data showing that
            certain players
            > actually increase or decrease the amount of FGAs by the players
            they guard,
            > not just increase or decrease their FG%s, and that may be coming
            soon, but i
            > haven't had this kind of data over the past two decades (forced
            turnover data
            > would be equally welcome to)...
            >
            > and keep in mind this individual defensive FG% rating is competely
            separate
            > from a player's defensive ability to block shots (or get steals).
            thus a
            > player who is a -5.0% on defense, but who also blocks alot of
            shots, has a much
            > greater impact on decreasing an opponent team's FG% than a player
            with just a
            > -5.0% individual defensive player rating who does not block alot
            of shots or
            > a +5.0% defender who does block alot of shots. a defender's
            individual
            > defensive FG% rating affects only the shooting of the opponent's
            player he guards
            > directly (including those he picks up on defensive switches) but
            his shot
            > blocking rating affects all opponent's FGAs, not just the player
            he is directly
            > guarding..
            >
            > having said that keep in mind that the bulls griffin data you see
            at
            > _www.82games.com_ (http://www.82games.com) and quoted above is not
            an individual
            > defensive mark, but what the team did when that person was in the
            game (and not
            > in the game). valuable information, but not quite the same..
            >
            > also in developing the simulation shot blocking had to be of
            import, i.e.
            > whenever a shot was attempted there had to be an opportunity for it
            to be
            > blocked by the defense (i.e. the vast majority of the time the
            average FGA is not
            > blocked). if it was not blocked it has to have a chance to go in
            (based on
            > the shooting player's FG% and the defender's ability to increase or
            decrease
            > that FG%), but if blocked have no chance of going in. so in the
            simulation you
            > can determine the "value" of shot blocking (along with the value of
            other
            > player abilities). so for example the year mark eaton blocked 456
            shots for the
            > jazz in the early/mid 1980s, i can run the sim with him blocking
            all those
            > shots, then set his shot block rating to 0.0%, and when i do this
            playing him 36
            > min/g both ways, you'll see a swing of about 8 games - i.e. his
            456 blocks,
            > and those blocks alone, represent about 8 more wins for his team...
            >
            > bob chaikin
            > _bchaikin@b..._ (mailto:bchaikin@b...)
          • Coach McCormick
            the flip side is that probably 3 of those were recovered by the offensive team; so, they still could score on that possession. and, while there is the
            Message 5 of 22 , Jan 27 10:02 PM
              the flip side is that probably 3 of those were recovered by the offensive team; so, they still could score on that possession. and, while there is the acknowledgement that intimidation plays a factor, how many fouls were committed in the pursuit of blocked shots?
               


              bchaikin@... wrote:
              Regarding the blocked shots, I can't see them being worth 8 games a season. Do you have stats on how many of those blocks the Jazz recovered vs how many the offense recovered vs how many went out of bounds?
               
              456 blocks in a season is about 5.5 per game. if you assume half of those shots would have gone in if they weren't blocked (50%, or even 45% or 40%), and for the sake of argument assume they were just 2pters, that means eaton alone with his shot blocking ability is saving a potential 4.4 pts/g - 5.5 pts/g. that's just with his blocks, not his ability to prevent shots going in by just playing defense other than with blocks...
               
              you don't think preventing 4-5 pts/g is worth at least 8 wins over the span of an 82 game season?...
               
              bob chaikin
               
               
               
               
               


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            • John Hollinger
              The thing with both shot blocks and steals is that a missed attempt isn t recorded. If Raef LaFrentz goes for a block and misses, and as a result his man gets
              Message 6 of 22 , Jan 28 3:42 PM
                The thing with both shot blocks and steals is that a missed attempt
                isn't recorded.

                If Raef LaFrentz goes for a block and misses, and as a result his man
                gets an easy follow dunk on the rebound, that isn't recorded. If
                Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about five
                times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that
                isn't recorded either.

                I actually think Eaton's blocks might have been as valuable as you
                say, or at least somewhere close to it. Utah was first or second in
                the league in FG% defense in most of his best seasons. But the thing
                about Eaton is that he could get those blocks without jumping half
                the time, and almost never took himself out of the play. Tim Duncan
                is like that, too. But most of the top guys in blocks and steals
                aren't.


                --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Coach McCormick
                <highfivehoopschool@y...> wrote:
                > the flip side is that probably 3 of those were recovered by the
                offensive team; so, they still could score on that possession. and,
                while there is the acknowledgement that intimidation plays a factor,
                how many fouls were committed in the pursuit of blocked shots?
                >
                >
                >
                > bchaikin@a... wrote:
                > Regarding the blocked shots, I can't see them being worth 8 games a
                season. Do you have stats on how many of those blocks the Jazz
                recovered vs how many the offense recovered vs how many went out of
                bounds?
                >
                > 456 blocks in a season is about 5.5 per game. if you assume half of
                those shots would have gone in if they weren't blocked (50%, or even
                45% or 40%), and for the sake of argument assume they were just
                2pters, that means eaton alone with his shot blocking ability is
                saving a potential 4.4 pts/g - 5.5 pts/g. that's just with his
                blocks, not his ability to prevent shots going in by just playing
                defense other than with blocks...
                >
                > you don't think preventing 4-5 pts/g is worth at least 8 wins over
                the span of an 82 game season?...
                >
                > bob chaikin
                > bchaikin@b...
                >
                >
                >
                >
                >
                >
                >
                >
                >
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              • bchaikin@aol.com
                The thing with both shot blocks and steals is that a missed attempt isn t recorded. agreed - but, that still does not negate the fact that both a steal and a
                Message 7 of 22 , Jan 28 7:59 PM
                  The thing with both shot blocks and steals is that a missed attempt isn't recorded.
                   
                  agreed -
                   
                  but, that still does not negate the fact that both a steal and a block - when they do indeed occur - are positive (and excellent) defensive plays. you can assume all you want that by going for a steal and block and by not getting it may put you in a worse defensive position, but are you trying to intimate that it is in some way bad to try for steals and blocks? if so i have yet to see any data supporting this (you may be quite right, i just haven't seen any data to support this - just coaching lore)...
                   
                  on the contrary, i can easily show you data (such that harvey pollack used to keep for the 76ers in his nba statistical yearbook) that for example very good shot blockers, even when they don't block a shot, many times alter the flight path of the shot such that the shot doesn'y go in. he called these "intimidations", and when he kept track of these for 76ers players like shawn bradley and manute bol, his data revealed that they stopped just as many if not more shots from going in without physically touching the shot than they did with their actual blocks....

                  If Raef LaFrentz goes for a block and misses, and as a result his man gets an easy follow dunk on the rebound, that isn't recorded.
                   
                  i'm sure this occurs, and often. but on the other hand what about all those times lafrentz goes for a block, misses the block, but forces the shooter to alter the shot just enough that it still does not go in? that is still an excellent play because then on average the defense will get about 2/3 of the available rebounds of that missed shot. again anything preventing a shot from going in in the 1st place is good defense...
                   
                  If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about five times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that isn't recorded either.
                   
                  correct - it is not recorded. but iverson has throughout his career averaged 2.5 steals per game. that's 2.5 opponent team possessions where they do not score. if he misses another 5 times, are you saying you know the opponent will score more than 2.5 of those times? those steal attempts that are missed may result in a 5 on 4 situation, but i don't know that the opponent will score more often or not than if iverson hadn't gone for a steal. the assumption may assuredly be true, but i have yet to see any data supporting it (i don't mean from you, i mean anywhere, pollack's books, roland's website, etc)...
                   
                  if you don't get a steal but play great defense and force a shot to be missed, your opponent still has on average about a 1/3 chance to get an offensive rebound. but when you do get a steal you end their possession and stop them from scoring...

                  I actually think Eaton's blocks might have been as valuable as you say, or at least somewhere close to it. Utah was first or second in the league in FG% defense in most of his best seasons. But the thing about Eaton is that he could get those blocks without jumping half the time, and almost never took himself out of the play. Tim Duncan is like that, too. But most of the top guys in blocks and steals aren't.
                  i certainly don't believe that there is an nba coach out there that is telling their players not to go for blocks or steals because that would put their team in a worse defensive position. they always say don't commit fouls, but i doubt they say don't go for good defensive plays like ST and BS....
                   
                  also players who do get alot of steals and blocks do not commit significantly more fouls than players who do not. in a previous posting (APBR posting 19440) i showed the foul rates for players who got 200+ BS or ST in a season, 150+ BS or ST, and 100+ BS or ST, versus those that didn't, and it wasn't even 1-2% more fouls per 100 minutes on average...
                   
                  bob chaikin
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                • Coach McCormick
                  Of course, there is no guarantee that the shot would have gone in had it not been blocked. So your argument works both ways. If you miss a steal/block and are
                  Message 8 of 22 , Jan 28 8:51 PM
                    Of course, there is no guarantee that the shot would have gone in had it not been blocked. So your argument works both ways. If you miss a steal/block and are not sure whether the miss is punished by the made basket, you cannot say the steal/block prevented a made basket. It may have prevented a missed shot.

                    bchaikin@... wrote:
                    The thing with both shot blocks and steals is that a missed attempt isn't recorded.
                     
                    agreed -
                     
                    but, that still does not negate the fact that both a steal and a block - when they do indeed occur - are positive (and excellent) defensive plays. you can assume all you want that by going for a steal and block and by not getting it may put you in a worse defensive position, but are you trying to intimate that it is in some way bad to try for steals and blocks? if so i have yet to see any data supporting this (you may be quite right, i just haven't seen any data to support this - just coaching lore)...
                     
                    on the contrary, i can easily show you data (such that harvey pollack used to keep for the 76ers in his nba statistical yearbook) that for example very good shot blockers, even when they don't block a shot, many times alter the flight path of the shot such that the shot doesn'y go in. he called these "intimidations", and when he kept track of these for 76ers players like shawn bradley and manute bol, his data revealed that they stopped just as many if not more shots from going in without physically touching the shot than they did with their actual blocks....

                    If Raef LaFrentz goes for a block and misses, and as a result his man gets an easy follow dunk on the rebound, that isn't recorded.
                     
                    i'm sure this occurs, and often. but on the other hand what about all those times lafrentz goes for a block, misses the block, but forces the shooter to alter the shot just enough that it still does not go in? that is still an excellent play because then on average the defense will get about 2/3 of the available rebounds of that missed shot. again anything preventing a shot from going in in the 1st place is good defense...
                     
                    If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about five times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that isn't recorded either.
                     
                    correct - it is not recorded. but iverson has throughout his career averaged 2.5 steals per game. that's 2.5 opponent team possessions where they do not score. if he misses another 5 times, are you saying you know the opponent will score more than 2.5 of those times? those steal attempts that are missed may result in a 5 on 4 situation, but i don't know that the opponent will score more often or not than if iverson hadn't gone for a steal. the assumption may assuredly be true, but i have yet to see any data supporting it (i don't mean from you, i mean anywhere, pollack's books, roland's website, etc)...
                     
                    if you don't get a steal but play great defense and force a shot to be missed, your opponent still has on average about a 1/3 chance to get an offensive rebound. but when you do get a steal you end their possession and stop them from scoring...

                    I actually think Eaton's blocks might have been as valuable as you say, or at least somewhere close to it. Utah was first or second in the league in FG% defense in most of his best seasons. But the thing about Eaton is that he could get those blocks without jumping half the time, and almost never took himself out of the play. Tim Duncan is like that, too. But most of the top guys in blocks and steals aren't.
                    i certainly don't believe that there is an nba coach out there that is telling their players not to go for blocks or steals because that would put their team in a worse defensive position. they always say don't commit fouls, but i doubt they say don't go for good defensive plays like ST and BS....
                     
                    also players who do get alot of steals and blocks do not commit significantly more fouls than players who do not. in a previous posting (APBR posting 19440) i showed the foul rates for players who got 200+ BS or ST in a season, 150+ BS or ST, and 100+ BS or ST, versus those that didn't, and it wasn't even 1-2% more fouls per 100 minutes on average...
                     
                    bob chaikin
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     


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                  • Stephen Greenwell
                    If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about five times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that isn t recorded either.
                    Message 9 of 22 , Jan 28 11:03 PM
                      If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about five
                      times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that
                      isn't recorded either.

                      Out of curiosity, has anyone ever looked at what NBA players shoot when they're WIDE OPEN?  I'm talking about practice, game time, etc.  From anecdotal experience, I generally shoot about the same (or at least I think I do!) assuming I have a clean look and don't have to alter a shot - The distance of the guy/girl from me doesn't matter.

                      Even if there *is* a difference, does the increase in shooting percentage negate the value of an occasional block or steal?  For example, does Iverson's man improve from a 40 to 75 percent shooter if he's left unguarded?  Can anyone shoot a jumper for this high of a percentage even if they're left wide open?  Watching players in practice, I've seen some people go on streaks of 3 to 10 threes in a row, but I've also seen this in a game where the shot sample size is much smaller.  At what point does improved shooting percentage from an out-of-position defender make up for steals and blocks generated?

                      I doubt there are answers to all (or any) of my questions, but I'm interested to know if anyone has any thoughts.

                      Stephen Greenwell
                    • Philip Maymin
                      I tracked practice shots for a variety of players in shootaround before the media access times (the real shootaround as opposed to the one for the fans) and
                      Message 10 of 22 , Jan 29 6:14 AM
                        I tracked practice shots for a variety of players in shootaround
                        before the media access times (the "real" shootaround as opposed to
                        the one for the fans) and though it seemed a little higher, especially
                        when someone initially unexpected like Richard Jefferson started
                        nailing consecutive very long threes halfway to halfcourt, when I
                        compared the percentages they weren't all that different from his game
                        performances. There's a confirmatory bias at work if you just watch
                        someone shoot: you dismiss a couple clanks as "near hits", a bunch of
                        clanks as "warming up," and when they hit a couple in a row you think
                        they are 100%. Turns out your experience is about right in that the
                        defender tends not to matter too much, though I don't have an
                        extremely large sample size. Certainly free throw shooting didn't seem
                        to be any different in practice than in games.


                        On Sat, 29 Jan 2005 02:03:21 -0500, Stephen Greenwell
                        <sgre6768@...> wrote:
                        > If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about five
                        > times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that
                        > isn't recorded either.
                        > Out of curiosity, has anyone ever looked at what NBA players shoot when
                        > they're WIDE OPEN? I'm talking about practice, game time, etc. From
                        > anecdotal experience, I generally shoot about the same (or at least I think
                        > I do!) assuming I have a clean look and don't have to alter a shot - The
                        > distance of the guy/girl from me doesn't matter.
                        >
                        > Even if there *is* a difference, does the increase in shooting percentage
                        > negate the value of an occasional block or steal? For example, does
                        > Iverson's man improve from a 40 to 75 percent shooter if he's left
                        > unguarded? Can anyone shoot a jumper for this high of a percentage even if
                        > they're left wide open? Watching players in practice, I've seen some people
                        > go on streaks of 3 to 10 threes in a row, but I've also seen this in a game
                        > where the shot sample size is much smaller. At what point does improved
                        > shooting percentage from an out-of-position defender make up for steals and
                        > blocks generated?
                        >
                        > I doubt there are answers to all (or any) of my questions, but I'm
                        > interested to know if anyone has any thoughts.
                        >
                        > Stephen Greenwell
                        > ________________________________
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                        > To visit your group on the web, go to:
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                      • Roland Beech
                        We ve done some charting of contested versus uncontested shots, and yes there is quite a difference: http://www.82games.com/saccon.htm ... From: Stephen
                        Message 11 of 22 , Jan 29 8:37 AM
                          We've done some charting of contested versus uncontested shots, and yes there is quite a difference:
                           
                          ----- Original Message -----
                          Sent: Friday, January 28, 2005 11:03 PM
                          Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Shane Battier - a great player?

                          If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about five
                          times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that
                          isn't recorded either.

                          Out of curiosity, has anyone ever looked at what NBA players shoot when they're WIDE OPEN?  I'm talking about practice, game time, etc.  From anecdotal experience, I generally shoot about the same (or at least I think I do!) assuming I have a clean look and don't have to alter a shot - The distance of the guy/girl from me doesn't matter.

                          Even if there *is* a difference, does the increase in shooting percentage negate the value of an occasional block or steal?  For example, does Iverson's man improve from a 40 to 75 percent shooter if he's left unguarded?  Can anyone shoot a jumper for this high of a percentage even if they're left wide open?  Watching players in practice, I've seen some people go on streaks of 3 to 10 threes in a row, but I've also seen this in a game where the shot sample size is much smaller.  At what point does improved shooting percentage from an out-of-position defender make up for steals and blocks generated?

                          I doubt there are answers to all (or any) of my questions, but I'm interested to know if anyone has any thoughts.

                          Stephen Greenwell
                        • Coach McCormick
                          I ve seen Peja Stojakovic make about 25-30 threes in a row in practice. Heck, I saw Mateen Cleaves make 10 in a row... Philip Maymin
                          Message 12 of 22 , Jan 29 10:28 AM
                            I've seen Peja Stojakovic make about 25-30 threes in a row in practice. Heck, I saw Mateen Cleaves make 10 in a row...

                            Philip Maymin <pmaymin@...> wrote:
                            I tracked practice shots for a variety of players in shootaround
                            before the media access times (the "real" shootaround as opposed to
                            the one for the fans) and though it seemed a little higher, especially
                            when someone initially unexpected like Richard Jefferson started
                            nailing consecutive very long threes halfway to halfcourt, when I
                            compared the percentages they weren't all that different from his game
                            performances. There's a confirmatory bias at work if you just watch
                            someone shoot: you dismiss a couple clanks as "near hits", a bunch of
                            clanks as "warming up," and when they hit a couple in a row you think
                            they are 100%. Turns out your experience is about right in that the
                            defender tends not to matter too much, though I don't have an
                            extremely large sample size. Certainly free throw shooting didn't seem
                            to be any different in practice than in games.


                            On Sat, 29 Jan 2005 02:03:21 -0500, Stephen Greenwell
                            <sgre6768@...> wrote:
                            > If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about five
                            > times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that
                            > isn't recorded either.
                            > Out of curiosity, has anyone ever looked at what NBA players shoot when
                            > they're WIDE OPEN?  I'm talking about practice, game time, etc.  From
                            > anecdotal experience, I generally shoot about the same (or at least I think
                            > I do!) assuming I have a clean look and don't have to alter a shot - The
                            > distance of the guy/girl from me doesn't matter.
                            >
                            > Even if there *is* a difference, does the increase in shooting percentage
                            > negate the value of an occasional block or steal?  For example, does
                            > Iverson's man improve from a 40 to 75 percent shooter if he's left
                            > unguarded?  Can anyone shoot a jumper for this high of a percentage even if
                            > they're left wide open?  Watching players in practice, I've seen some people
                            > go on streaks of 3 to 10 threes in a row, but I've also seen this in a game
                            > where the shot sample size is much smaller.  At what point does improved
                            > shooting percentage from an out-of-position defender make up for steals and
                            > blocks generated?
                            >
                            > I doubt there are answers to all (or any) of my questions, but I'm
                            > interested to know if anyone has any thoughts.
                            >
                            > Stephen Greenwell
                            > ________________________________
                            > Yahoo! Groups Links
                            > To visit your group on the web, go to:
                            > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/
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                          • John Hollinger
                            I m with you on that -- I ve seen NBA players (and not even good ones) make an amazing number of consecutive 3s in warm ups. ... practice. Heck, I saw Mateen
                            Message 13 of 22 , Jan 30 3:23 PM
                              I'm with you on that -- I've seen NBA players (and not even good
                              ones) make an amazing number of consecutive 3s in warm ups.


                              --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Coach McCormick
                              <highfivehoopschool@y...> wrote:
                              > I've seen Peja Stojakovic make about 25-30 threes in a row in
                              practice. Heck, I saw Mateen Cleaves make 10 in a row...
                              >
                              > Philip Maymin <pmaymin@g...> wrote:I tracked practice shots for a
                              variety of players in shootaround
                              > before the media access times (the "real" shootaround as opposed to
                              > the one for the fans) and though it seemed a little higher,
                              especially
                              > when someone initially unexpected like Richard Jefferson started
                              > nailing consecutive very long threes halfway to halfcourt, when I
                              > compared the percentages they weren't all that different from his
                              game
                              > performances. There's a confirmatory bias at work if you just watch
                              > someone shoot: you dismiss a couple clanks as "near hits", a bunch
                              of
                              > clanks as "warming up," and when they hit a couple in a row you
                              think
                              > they are 100%. Turns out your experience is about right in that the
                              > defender tends not to matter too much, though I don't have an
                              > extremely large sample size. Certainly free throw shooting didn't
                              seem
                              > to be any different in practice than in games.
                              >
                              >
                              > On Sat, 29 Jan 2005 02:03:21 -0500, Stephen Greenwell
                              > <sgre6768@p...> wrote:
                              > > If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about
                              five
                              > > times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that
                              > > isn't recorded either.
                              > > Out of curiosity, has anyone ever looked at what NBA players
                              shoot when
                              > > they're WIDE OPEN? I'm talking about practice, game time, etc.
                              From
                              > > anecdotal experience, I generally shoot about the same (or at
                              least I think
                              > > I do!) assuming I have a clean look and don't have to alter a
                              shot - The
                              > > distance of the guy/girl from me doesn't matter.
                              > >
                              > > Even if there *is* a difference, does the increase in shooting
                              percentage
                              > > negate the value of an occasional block or steal? For example,
                              does
                              > > Iverson's man improve from a 40 to 75 percent shooter if he's left
                              > > unguarded? Can anyone shoot a jumper for this high of a
                              percentage even if
                              > > they're left wide open? Watching players in practice, I've seen
                              some people
                              > > go on streaks of 3 to 10 threes in a row, but I've also seen this
                              in a game
                              > > where the shot sample size is much smaller. At what point does
                              improved
                              > > shooting percentage from an out-of-position defender make up for
                              steals and
                              > > blocks generated?
                              > >
                              > > I doubt there are answers to all (or any) of my questions, but I'm
                              > > interested to know if anyone has any thoughts.
                              > >
                              > > Stephen Greenwell
                              > > ________________________________
                              > > Yahoo! Groups Links
                              > > To visit your group on the web, go to:
                              > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/
                              > >
                              > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
                              > > APBR_analysis-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
                              > >
                              > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
                              Service.
                              >
                              >
                              > ---------------------------------
                              > Yahoo! Groups Links
                              >
                              > To visit your group on the web, go to:
                              > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/
                              >
                              > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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                              Service.
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                            • Dean Oliver
                              Even worse, I ve seen me make 8 in a row. A hand in the face matters. How you do it matters. When you do it matters. Defense is what I did... because I
                              Message 14 of 22 , Jan 30 8:50 PM
                                Even worse, I've seen me make 8 in a row.

                                A hand in the face matters. How you do it matters. When you do it
                                matters. Defense is what I did... because I certainly couldn't make 8
                                in a row in a game.

                                DeanO

                                Dean Oliver
                                Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics
                                Author, Basketball on Paper
                                http://www.basketballonpaper.com
                                "Oliver's book provides an insightful framework for basketball. His
                                approach highlights and simplifies the basic goals of team offenses
                                and defenses, with an interesting description of how teamwork among
                                players with different roles can be evaluated. This book is a unique
                                and surprisingly practical addition to a coach's library." Dean
                                Smith, Hall of Fame Basketball Coach, University of North Carolina


                                --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Coach McCormick
                                <highfivehoopschool@y...> wrote:
                                > I've seen Peja Stojakovic make about 25-30 threes in a row in
                                practice. Heck, I saw Mateen Cleaves make 10 in a row...
                                >
                                > Philip Maymin <pmaymin@g...> wrote:I tracked practice shots for a
                                variety of players in shootaround
                                > before the media access times (the "real" shootaround as opposed to
                                > the one for the fans) and though it seemed a little higher, especially
                                > when someone initially unexpected like Richard Jefferson started
                                > nailing consecutive very long threes halfway to halfcourt, when I
                                > compared the percentages they weren't all that different from his game
                                > performances. There's a confirmatory bias at work if you just watch
                                > someone shoot: you dismiss a couple clanks as "near hits", a bunch of
                                > clanks as "warming up," and when they hit a couple in a row you think
                                > they are 100%. Turns out your experience is about right in that the
                                > defender tends not to matter too much, though I don't have an
                                > extremely large sample size. Certainly free throw shooting didn't seem
                                > to be any different in practice than in games.
                                >
                                >
                                > On Sat, 29 Jan 2005 02:03:21 -0500, Stephen Greenwell
                                > <sgre6768@p...> wrote:
                                > > If Allen Iverson goes for a steal and misses, which happens about
                                five
                                > > times a game, and as a result his man gets a wide-open shot, that
                                > > isn't recorded either.
                                > > Out of curiosity, has anyone ever looked at what NBA players shoot
                                when
                                > > they're WIDE OPEN? I'm talking about practice, game time, etc. From
                                > > anecdotal experience, I generally shoot about the same (or at
                                least I think
                                > > I do!) assuming I have a clean look and don't have to alter a shot
                                - The
                                > > distance of the guy/girl from me doesn't matter.
                                > >
                                > > Even if there *is* a difference, does the increase in shooting
                                percentage
                                > > negate the value of an occasional block or steal? For example, does
                                > > Iverson's man improve from a 40 to 75 percent shooter if he's left
                                > > unguarded? Can anyone shoot a jumper for this high of a
                                percentage even if
                                > > they're left wide open? Watching players in practice, I've seen
                                some people
                                > > go on streaks of 3 to 10 threes in a row, but I've also seen this
                                in a game
                                > > where the shot sample size is much smaller. At what point does
                                improved
                                > > shooting percentage from an out-of-position defender make up for
                                steals and
                                > > blocks generated?
                                > >
                                > > I doubt there are answers to all (or any) of my questions, but I'm
                                > > interested to know if anyone has any thoughts.
                                > >
                                > > Stephen Greenwell
                                > > ________________________________
                                > > Yahoo! Groups Links
                                > > To visit your group on the web, go to:
                                > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/
                                > >
                                > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
                                > > APBR_analysis-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
                                > >
                                > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
                                >
                                >
                                > ---------------------------------
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                                >
                                > To visit your group on the web, go to:
                                > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/
                                >
                                > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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                                >
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                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
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