## RE: [APBR_analysis] Stats that make you go hmmm...

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• ... From: Gabe Farkas [mailto:gabefark@yahoo.com] Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2005 5:54 PM ... From his description at the beginning, it sounds a lot more like
Message 1 of 10 , Jan 4, 2005
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-----Original Message-----
From: Gabe Farkas [mailto:gabefark@...]
Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2005 5:54 PM

>Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
>http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
>
>Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
>guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
>prominently involved....

From his description at the beginning, it sounds a lot
more like WinVal, or some version of it. But as for
the actual numbers, besides the points = offense-defense
calculation already explained, I don't know what's
going on with the other numbers.

Some guesses:

impact%: we know that Sagarin and Winston devalue
stats accumulated during garbage time, so this might
be a measure of what percent of a player's minutes
were non-garbage time, or perhaps an overall measure
of the non-garbage-ness of his overall minutes.

Minutes: my first guess is it's the player's minutes
played so far, this'd be easy to check but I'm rushing
through this

Z-score: Half of this is easy, a z-score in statistics
is the number of standard deviations that you are above
or below the mean, an often useful universal way (units
of measurement don't matter) of comparing different
observations, i.e. players. The more important half
though is: the mean of *what*? What is being measured
here? It might be the "points" variable, or it might
be a rawer +/- measure, or ? Actually, it's probably
not "points", see below.

PT_wins and ZS_wins: the numbers are far too high
to represent z-scores, but might represent some measure
of "wins produced" by the player (or by his typical
5-man lineup). I'm guessing one number represents
"wins produced" as estimated by "Points" and the other
as estimated by z-scores. Again, where these z-scores
and offense-defense calculations come from is not clear,
except probably from some sort of WinVal calculation.

PSalary\$, ZSalary\$, and Salary\$: more mysteries.
Presumably some sort of salary calculation (maybe actual
salary, maybe "estimated" or "deserved" salary), as
calculated using "points" and "z-scores). Why the
Salary\$ figures are all 0, and what they represent, is
a mystery to me.

Teamin: presumably team's minutes played, again it'd
be easy enough to verify this.

Age, Pos Ht: these are clear.

Algebra: the biggest mystery to me. And they're in
curly brackets. Maybe they represent a "wins produced"
calculation that comes more from theoretical algebraic
calculations, and which relies less of pure data.

+/-: Like z-scores, the general meaning is obvious,
but the specific calculation and meaning are unknown.

Does Cuban still use WinVal straight from Sagarin and
Winston, or has he turned to variations on it?

--MKT
• It might be awhile -- Butler is now an assistant coach with the Wizards.
Message 2 of 10 , Jan 5, 2005
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It might be awhile -- Butler is now an assistant coach with the Wizards.

--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
<alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
>
> Nope, nothing to do with PER. I think it's related to the same system
> that told him Hedo Turkoglu was the MVP last year. How long do you
> suppose it will be before the Mavs sign Mitchell Butler?
>
>
>
>
> --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas <gabefark@y...>
> wrote:
> > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
> > http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
> >
> > Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
> > guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
> > prominently involved....
> >
> > __________________________________________________
> > Do You Yahoo!?
> > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
> > http://mail.yahoo.com
• My guess on the salary stuff is that one of those is a kind of raw salary and the other contains some kind of adjustment. That s what I do in my version of a
Message 3 of 10 , Jan 5, 2005
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My guess on the salary stuff is that one of those is a kind of "raw"
salary and the other contains some kind of adjustment. That's what I
do in my version of a salary formula.

wrote:
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Gabe Farkas [mailto:gabefark@y...]
> Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2005 5:54 PM
>
>
> >Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
> >http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
> >
> >Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
> >guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
> >prominently involved....
>
> From his description at the beginning, it sounds a lot
> more like WinVal, or some version of it. But as for
> the actual numbers, besides the points = offense-defense
> calculation already explained, I don't know what's
> going on with the other numbers.
>
> Some guesses:
>
> impact%: we know that Sagarin and Winston devalue
> stats accumulated during garbage time, so this might
> be a measure of what percent of a player's minutes
> were non-garbage time, or perhaps an overall measure
> of the non-garbage-ness of his overall minutes.
>
> Minutes: my first guess is it's the player's minutes
> played so far, this'd be easy to check but I'm rushing
> through this
>
> Z-score: Half of this is easy, a z-score in statistics
> is the number of standard deviations that you are above
> or below the mean, an often useful universal way (units
> of measurement don't matter) of comparing different
> observations, i.e. players. The more important half
> though is: the mean of *what*? What is being measured
> here? It might be the "points" variable, or it might
> be a rawer +/- measure, or ? Actually, it's probably
> not "points", see below.
>
> PT_wins and ZS_wins: the numbers are far too high
> to represent z-scores, but might represent some measure
> of "wins produced" by the player (or by his typical
> 5-man lineup). I'm guessing one number represents
> "wins produced" as estimated by "Points" and the other
> as estimated by z-scores. Again, where these z-scores
> and offense-defense calculations come from is not clear,
> except probably from some sort of WinVal calculation.
>
> PSalary\$, ZSalary\$, and Salary\$: more mysteries.
> Presumably some sort of salary calculation (maybe actual
> salary, maybe "estimated" or "deserved" salary), as
> calculated using "points" and "z-scores). Why the
> Salary\$ figures are all 0, and what they represent, is
> a mystery to me.
>
> Teamin: presumably team's minutes played, again it'd
> be easy enough to verify this.
>
> Age, Pos Ht: these are clear.
>
> Algebra: the biggest mystery to me. And they're in
> curly brackets. Maybe they represent a "wins produced"
> calculation that comes more from theoretical algebraic
> calculations, and which relies less of pure data.
>
> +/-: Like z-scores, the general meaning is obvious,
> but the specific calculation and meaning are unknown.
>
>
> Does Cuban still use WinVal straight from Sagarin and
> Winston, or has he turned to variations on it?
>
>
> --MKT
• Can someone repost his info so that the format is clear? I can t even read what s in the columns. DeanO Dean Oliver Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics
Message 4 of 10 , Jan 5, 2005
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Can someone repost his info so that the format is clear?

I can't even read what's in the columns.

DeanO

Dean Oliver
Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics
"Basketball on Paper is a revolutionary strike for statistical
analysis of the game of basketball..." Hoopsworld.com's Kevin Pelton

--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "mrintp2000" <shzys@n...> wrote:
>
> I doubt it's PER, but I can't make any sense of his PTS index???
>
> --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas <gabefark@y...> wrote:
> > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
> > http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
> >
> > Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
> > guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
> > prominently involved....
> >
> > __________________________________________________
> > Do You Yahoo!?
> > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
> > http://mail.yahoo.com
• Putting it into NotePad makes it slightly more readable, but I m still struggling with getting it into Excel. A small .txt file is attached... ...
Message 5 of 10 , Jan 5, 2005
• 0 Attachment
Putting it into NotePad makes it slightly more
readable, but I'm still struggling with getting it
into Excel.

A small ".txt" file is attached...

--- Dean Oliver <deano@...> wrote:

>
> Can someone repost his info so that the format is
> clear?
>
> I can't even read what's in the columns.
>
> DeanO
>
> Dean Oliver
> Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics
> "Basketball on Paper is a revolutionary strike for
> statistical
> analysis of the game of basketball..."
> Hoopsworld.com's Kevin Pelton
>
>
> --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "mrintp2000"
> <shzys@n...> wrote:
> >
> > I doubt it's PER, but I can't make any sense of
> his PTS index???
> >
> > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas
> <gabefark@y...> wrote:
> > > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog
> entry:
> > >
> http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
> > >
> > > Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
> > > guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
> > > prominently involved....
> > >
> > >
> __________________________________________________
> > > Do You Yahoo!?
> > > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam
> protection around
> > > http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
>
>

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