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RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Stats that make you go hmmm...

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  • Ed Ouellette
    PTS = OFFENSE - DEFENSE ratings (note that DEFENSE is inversely scored, so negative rating adds to PTS). That s the obvious way of getting there...
    Message 1 of 10 , Jan 4, 2005
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      PTS = OFFENSE - DEFENSE ratings (note that DEFENSE is inversely scored, so negative rating adds to PTS).
       
      That's the obvious way of getting there... understanding what OFFENSE and DEFENSE are is another matter :)
       
      Ed O.
       


      From: mrintp2000 [mailto:shzys@...]
      Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2005 6:07 PM
      To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Stats that make you go hmmm...


      I doubt it's PER, but I can't make any sense of his PTS index???

      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas <gabefark@y...> wrote:
      > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest
      blog entry:
      >
      href="http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973">http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
      >
      > Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
      >
      guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
      > prominently
      involved....
      >
      >
      __________________________________________________
      > Do You
      Yahoo!?
      > Tired of spam?  Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection
      around
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      href="http://mail.yahoo.com">http://mail.yahoo.com

    • thedawgsareout
      ... POINTS= OFFENSE-DEFENSE Assumedly, that s how much better the player makes his team s offense when on the court, adjusted for the lineups, and then
      Message 2 of 10 , Jan 4, 2005
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        > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
        > http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?

        POINTS= OFFENSE-DEFENSE

        Assumedly, that's how much better the player makes his team's
        offense when on the court, adjusted for the lineups, and then
        defense. As EdO says, Points is the net of those two ratings.

        IMPACT%

        No idea how that's created.

        MINUTES

        Uh, minutes.

        Z-SCORE

        I'm guessing this takes into account the variability of the player's
        ratings, based heavily on his minutes played. It doesn't show much
        here because these guys all play lots of minutes. (I think.)

        PT_WINS

        This assumedly translates the points rating above into wins.

        ZS_WINS

        same but with the Z-score.

        PSALARY$
        ZSALARY$

        Now let's turn those into something really useful - $$$. W&S find
        many of these guys to be worth significantly more than the maximum
        salary. That's interesting. I get different results with my method
        for going to salaries (but it's seriously flawed).

        SALARY$

        Cuban zeroed out the player's actual salary. He's not supposed to
        tell us that.

        TEAMIN AGE POS HT

        Boring

        ALGEBRA

        No idea.

        +/-

        This appears to be good, old-fashioned +/- per 48 minutes. It's
        similar to what Roland is reporting for these players.
      • John Hollinger
        Nope, nothing to do with PER. I think it s related to the same system that told him Hedo Turkoglu was the MVP last year. How long do you suppose it will be
        Message 3 of 10 , Jan 4, 2005
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          Nope, nothing to do with PER. I think it's related to the same system
          that told him Hedo Turkoglu was the MVP last year. How long do you
          suppose it will be before the Mavs sign Mitchell Butler?




          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas <gabefark@y...>
          wrote:
          > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
          > http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
          >
          > Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
          > guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
          > prominently involved....
          >
          > __________________________________________________
          > Do You Yahoo!?
          > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
          > http://mail.yahoo.com
        • Michael Tamada
          ... From: Gabe Farkas [mailto:gabefark@yahoo.com] Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2005 5:54 PM ... From his description at the beginning, it sounds a lot more like
          Message 4 of 10 , Jan 4, 2005
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            -----Original Message-----
            From: Gabe Farkas [mailto:gabefark@...]
            Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2005 5:54 PM


            >Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
            >http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
            >
            >Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
            >guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
            >prominently involved....

            From his description at the beginning, it sounds a lot
            more like WinVal, or some version of it. But as for
            the actual numbers, besides the points = offense-defense
            calculation already explained, I don't know what's
            going on with the other numbers.

            Some guesses:

            impact%: we know that Sagarin and Winston devalue
            stats accumulated during garbage time, so this might
            be a measure of what percent of a player's minutes
            were non-garbage time, or perhaps an overall measure
            of the non-garbage-ness of his overall minutes.

            Minutes: my first guess is it's the player's minutes
            played so far, this'd be easy to check but I'm rushing
            through this

            Z-score: Half of this is easy, a z-score in statistics
            is the number of standard deviations that you are above
            or below the mean, an often useful universal way (units
            of measurement don't matter) of comparing different
            observations, i.e. players. The more important half
            though is: the mean of *what*? What is being measured
            here? It might be the "points" variable, or it might
            be a rawer +/- measure, or ? Actually, it's probably
            not "points", see below.

            PT_wins and ZS_wins: the numbers are far too high
            to represent z-scores, but might represent some measure
            of "wins produced" by the player (or by his typical
            5-man lineup). I'm guessing one number represents
            "wins produced" as estimated by "Points" and the other
            as estimated by z-scores. Again, where these z-scores
            and offense-defense calculations come from is not clear,
            except probably from some sort of WinVal calculation.

            PSalary$, ZSalary$, and Salary$: more mysteries.
            Presumably some sort of salary calculation (maybe actual
            salary, maybe "estimated" or "deserved" salary), as
            calculated using "points" and "z-scores). Why the
            Salary$ figures are all 0, and what they represent, is
            a mystery to me.

            Teamin: presumably team's minutes played, again it'd
            be easy enough to verify this.

            Age, Pos Ht: these are clear.

            Algebra: the biggest mystery to me. And they're in
            curly brackets. Maybe they represent a "wins produced"
            calculation that comes more from theoretical algebraic
            calculations, and which relies less of pure data.

            +/-: Like z-scores, the general meaning is obvious,
            but the specific calculation and meaning are unknown.


            Does Cuban still use WinVal straight from Sagarin and
            Winston, or has he turned to variations on it?


            --MKT
          • wizardskev
            It might be awhile -- Butler is now an assistant coach with the Wizards.
            Message 5 of 10 , Jan 5, 2005
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              It might be awhile -- Butler is now an assistant coach with the Wizards.

              --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
              <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
              >
              > Nope, nothing to do with PER. I think it's related to the same system
              > that told him Hedo Turkoglu was the MVP last year. How long do you
              > suppose it will be before the Mavs sign Mitchell Butler?
              >
              >
              >
              >
              > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas <gabefark@y...>
              > wrote:
              > > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
              > > http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
              > >
              > > Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
              > > guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
              > > prominently involved....
              > >
              > > __________________________________________________
              > > Do You Yahoo!?
              > > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
              > > http://mail.yahoo.com
            • wizardskev
              My guess on the salary stuff is that one of those is a kind of raw salary and the other contains some kind of adjustment. That s what I do in my version of a
              Message 6 of 10 , Jan 5, 2005
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                My guess on the salary stuff is that one of those is a kind of "raw"
                salary and the other contains some kind of adjustment. That's what I
                do in my version of a salary formula.

                --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada" <tamada@o...>
                wrote:
                > -----Original Message-----
                > From: Gabe Farkas [mailto:gabefark@y...]
                > Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2005 5:54 PM
                >
                >
                > >Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
                > >http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
                > >
                > >Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
                > >guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
                > >prominently involved....
                >
                > From his description at the beginning, it sounds a lot
                > more like WinVal, or some version of it. But as for
                > the actual numbers, besides the points = offense-defense
                > calculation already explained, I don't know what's
                > going on with the other numbers.
                >
                > Some guesses:
                >
                > impact%: we know that Sagarin and Winston devalue
                > stats accumulated during garbage time, so this might
                > be a measure of what percent of a player's minutes
                > were non-garbage time, or perhaps an overall measure
                > of the non-garbage-ness of his overall minutes.
                >
                > Minutes: my first guess is it's the player's minutes
                > played so far, this'd be easy to check but I'm rushing
                > through this
                >
                > Z-score: Half of this is easy, a z-score in statistics
                > is the number of standard deviations that you are above
                > or below the mean, an often useful universal way (units
                > of measurement don't matter) of comparing different
                > observations, i.e. players. The more important half
                > though is: the mean of *what*? What is being measured
                > here? It might be the "points" variable, or it might
                > be a rawer +/- measure, or ? Actually, it's probably
                > not "points", see below.
                >
                > PT_wins and ZS_wins: the numbers are far too high
                > to represent z-scores, but might represent some measure
                > of "wins produced" by the player (or by his typical
                > 5-man lineup). I'm guessing one number represents
                > "wins produced" as estimated by "Points" and the other
                > as estimated by z-scores. Again, where these z-scores
                > and offense-defense calculations come from is not clear,
                > except probably from some sort of WinVal calculation.
                >
                > PSalary$, ZSalary$, and Salary$: more mysteries.
                > Presumably some sort of salary calculation (maybe actual
                > salary, maybe "estimated" or "deserved" salary), as
                > calculated using "points" and "z-scores). Why the
                > Salary$ figures are all 0, and what they represent, is
                > a mystery to me.
                >
                > Teamin: presumably team's minutes played, again it'd
                > be easy enough to verify this.
                >
                > Age, Pos Ht: these are clear.
                >
                > Algebra: the biggest mystery to me. And they're in
                > curly brackets. Maybe they represent a "wins produced"
                > calculation that comes more from theoretical algebraic
                > calculations, and which relies less of pure data.
                >
                > +/-: Like z-scores, the general meaning is obvious,
                > but the specific calculation and meaning are unknown.
                >
                >
                > Does Cuban still use WinVal straight from Sagarin and
                > Winston, or has he turned to variations on it?
                >
                >
                > --MKT
              • Dean Oliver
                Can someone repost his info so that the format is clear? I can t even read what s in the columns. DeanO Dean Oliver Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics
                Message 7 of 10 , Jan 5, 2005
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                  Can someone repost his info so that the format is clear?

                  I can't even read what's in the columns.

                  DeanO

                  Dean Oliver
                  Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics
                  Author, Basketball on Paper
                  http://www.basketballonpaper.com
                  "Basketball on Paper is a revolutionary strike for statistical
                  analysis of the game of basketball..." Hoopsworld.com's Kevin Pelton


                  --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "mrintp2000" <shzys@n...> wrote:
                  >
                  > I doubt it's PER, but I can't make any sense of his PTS index???
                  >
                  > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas <gabefark@y...> wrote:
                  > > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
                  > > http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
                  > >
                  > > Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
                  > > guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
                  > > prominently involved....
                  > >
                  > > __________________________________________________
                  > > Do You Yahoo!?
                  > > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
                  > > http://mail.yahoo.com
                • Gabe Farkas
                  Putting it into NotePad makes it slightly more readable, but I m still struggling with getting it into Excel. A small .txt file is attached... ...
                  Message 8 of 10 , Jan 5, 2005
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                    Putting it into NotePad makes it slightly more
                    readable, but I'm still struggling with getting it
                    into Excel.

                    A small ".txt" file is attached...



                    --- Dean Oliver <deano@...> wrote:

                    >
                    > Can someone repost his info so that the format is
                    > clear?
                    >
                    > I can't even read what's in the columns.
                    >
                    > DeanO
                    >
                    > Dean Oliver
                    > Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics
                    > Author, Basketball on Paper
                    > http://www.basketballonpaper.com
                    > "Basketball on Paper is a revolutionary strike for
                    > statistical
                    > analysis of the game of basketball..."
                    > Hoopsworld.com's Kevin Pelton
                    >
                    >
                    > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "mrintp2000"
                    > <shzys@n...> wrote:
                    > >
                    > > I doubt it's PER, but I can't make any sense of
                    > his PTS index???
                    > >
                    > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas
                    > <gabefark@y...> wrote:
                    > > > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog
                    > entry:
                    > > >
                    > http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
                    > > >
                    > > > Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
                    > > > guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
                    > > > prominently involved....
                    > > >
                    > > >
                    > __________________________________________________
                    > > > Do You Yahoo!?
                    > > > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam
                    > protection around
                    > > > http://mail.yahoo.com
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >

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