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Stats that make you go hmmm...

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  • Gabe Farkas
    Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban s latest blog entry: http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ? Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I m
    Message 1 of 10 , Jan 4, 2005
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      Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
      http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?

      Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
      guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
      prominently involved....

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    • mrintp2000
      I doubt it s PER, but I can t make any sense of his PTS index???
      Message 2 of 10 , Jan 4, 2005
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        I doubt it's PER, but I can't make any sense of his PTS index???

        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas <gabefark@y...> wrote:
        > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
        > http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
        >
        > Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
        > guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
        > prominently involved....
        >
        > __________________________________________________
        > Do You Yahoo!?
        > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
        > http://mail.yahoo.com
      • Ed Ouellette
        PTS = OFFENSE - DEFENSE ratings (note that DEFENSE is inversely scored, so negative rating adds to PTS). That s the obvious way of getting there...
        Message 3 of 10 , Jan 4, 2005
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          PTS = OFFENSE - DEFENSE ratings (note that DEFENSE is inversely scored, so negative rating adds to PTS).
           
          That's the obvious way of getting there... understanding what OFFENSE and DEFENSE are is another matter :)
           
          Ed O.
           


          From: mrintp2000 [mailto:shzys@...]
          Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2005 6:07 PM
          To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
          Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Stats that make you go hmmm...


          I doubt it's PER, but I can't make any sense of his PTS index???

          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas <gabefark@y...> wrote:
          > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest
          blog entry:
          >
          href="http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973">http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
          >
          > Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
          >
          guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
          > prominently
          involved....
          >
          >
          __________________________________________________
          > Do You
          Yahoo!?
          > Tired of spam?  Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection
          around
          >
          href="http://mail.yahoo.com">http://mail.yahoo.com

        • thedawgsareout
          ... POINTS= OFFENSE-DEFENSE Assumedly, that s how much better the player makes his team s offense when on the court, adjusted for the lineups, and then
          Message 4 of 10 , Jan 4, 2005
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            > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
            > http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?

            POINTS= OFFENSE-DEFENSE

            Assumedly, that's how much better the player makes his team's
            offense when on the court, adjusted for the lineups, and then
            defense. As EdO says, Points is the net of those two ratings.

            IMPACT%

            No idea how that's created.

            MINUTES

            Uh, minutes.

            Z-SCORE

            I'm guessing this takes into account the variability of the player's
            ratings, based heavily on his minutes played. It doesn't show much
            here because these guys all play lots of minutes. (I think.)

            PT_WINS

            This assumedly translates the points rating above into wins.

            ZS_WINS

            same but with the Z-score.

            PSALARY$
            ZSALARY$

            Now let's turn those into something really useful - $$$. W&S find
            many of these guys to be worth significantly more than the maximum
            salary. That's interesting. I get different results with my method
            for going to salaries (but it's seriously flawed).

            SALARY$

            Cuban zeroed out the player's actual salary. He's not supposed to
            tell us that.

            TEAMIN AGE POS HT

            Boring

            ALGEBRA

            No idea.

            +/-

            This appears to be good, old-fashioned +/- per 48 minutes. It's
            similar to what Roland is reporting for these players.
          • John Hollinger
            Nope, nothing to do with PER. I think it s related to the same system that told him Hedo Turkoglu was the MVP last year. How long do you suppose it will be
            Message 5 of 10 , Jan 4, 2005
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              Nope, nothing to do with PER. I think it's related to the same system
              that told him Hedo Turkoglu was the MVP last year. How long do you
              suppose it will be before the Mavs sign Mitchell Butler?




              --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas <gabefark@y...>
              wrote:
              > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
              > http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
              >
              > Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
              > guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
              > prominently involved....
              >
              > __________________________________________________
              > Do You Yahoo!?
              > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
              > http://mail.yahoo.com
            • Michael Tamada
              ... From: Gabe Farkas [mailto:gabefark@yahoo.com] Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2005 5:54 PM ... From his description at the beginning, it sounds a lot more like
              Message 6 of 10 , Jan 4, 2005
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                -----Original Message-----
                From: Gabe Farkas [mailto:gabefark@...]
                Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2005 5:54 PM


                >Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
                >http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
                >
                >Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
                >guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
                >prominently involved....

                From his description at the beginning, it sounds a lot
                more like WinVal, or some version of it. But as for
                the actual numbers, besides the points = offense-defense
                calculation already explained, I don't know what's
                going on with the other numbers.

                Some guesses:

                impact%: we know that Sagarin and Winston devalue
                stats accumulated during garbage time, so this might
                be a measure of what percent of a player's minutes
                were non-garbage time, or perhaps an overall measure
                of the non-garbage-ness of his overall minutes.

                Minutes: my first guess is it's the player's minutes
                played so far, this'd be easy to check but I'm rushing
                through this

                Z-score: Half of this is easy, a z-score in statistics
                is the number of standard deviations that you are above
                or below the mean, an often useful universal way (units
                of measurement don't matter) of comparing different
                observations, i.e. players. The more important half
                though is: the mean of *what*? What is being measured
                here? It might be the "points" variable, or it might
                be a rawer +/- measure, or ? Actually, it's probably
                not "points", see below.

                PT_wins and ZS_wins: the numbers are far too high
                to represent z-scores, but might represent some measure
                of "wins produced" by the player (or by his typical
                5-man lineup). I'm guessing one number represents
                "wins produced" as estimated by "Points" and the other
                as estimated by z-scores. Again, where these z-scores
                and offense-defense calculations come from is not clear,
                except probably from some sort of WinVal calculation.

                PSalary$, ZSalary$, and Salary$: more mysteries.
                Presumably some sort of salary calculation (maybe actual
                salary, maybe "estimated" or "deserved" salary), as
                calculated using "points" and "z-scores). Why the
                Salary$ figures are all 0, and what they represent, is
                a mystery to me.

                Teamin: presumably team's minutes played, again it'd
                be easy enough to verify this.

                Age, Pos Ht: these are clear.

                Algebra: the biggest mystery to me. And they're in
                curly brackets. Maybe they represent a "wins produced"
                calculation that comes more from theoretical algebraic
                calculations, and which relies less of pure data.

                +/-: Like z-scores, the general meaning is obvious,
                but the specific calculation and meaning are unknown.


                Does Cuban still use WinVal straight from Sagarin and
                Winston, or has he turned to variations on it?


                --MKT
              • wizardskev
                It might be awhile -- Butler is now an assistant coach with the Wizards.
                Message 7 of 10 , Jan 5, 2005
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                  It might be awhile -- Butler is now an assistant coach with the Wizards.

                  --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
                  <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
                  >
                  > Nope, nothing to do with PER. I think it's related to the same system
                  > that told him Hedo Turkoglu was the MVP last year. How long do you
                  > suppose it will be before the Mavs sign Mitchell Butler?
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas <gabefark@y...>
                  > wrote:
                  > > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
                  > > http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
                  > >
                  > > Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
                  > > guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
                  > > prominently involved....
                  > >
                  > > __________________________________________________
                  > > Do You Yahoo!?
                  > > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
                  > > http://mail.yahoo.com
                • wizardskev
                  My guess on the salary stuff is that one of those is a kind of raw salary and the other contains some kind of adjustment. That s what I do in my version of a
                  Message 8 of 10 , Jan 5, 2005
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                    My guess on the salary stuff is that one of those is a kind of "raw"
                    salary and the other contains some kind of adjustment. That's what I
                    do in my version of a salary formula.

                    --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada" <tamada@o...>
                    wrote:
                    > -----Original Message-----
                    > From: Gabe Farkas [mailto:gabefark@y...]
                    > Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2005 5:54 PM
                    >
                    >
                    > >Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
                    > >http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
                    > >
                    > >Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
                    > >guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
                    > >prominently involved....
                    >
                    > From his description at the beginning, it sounds a lot
                    > more like WinVal, or some version of it. But as for
                    > the actual numbers, besides the points = offense-defense
                    > calculation already explained, I don't know what's
                    > going on with the other numbers.
                    >
                    > Some guesses:
                    >
                    > impact%: we know that Sagarin and Winston devalue
                    > stats accumulated during garbage time, so this might
                    > be a measure of what percent of a player's minutes
                    > were non-garbage time, or perhaps an overall measure
                    > of the non-garbage-ness of his overall minutes.
                    >
                    > Minutes: my first guess is it's the player's minutes
                    > played so far, this'd be easy to check but I'm rushing
                    > through this
                    >
                    > Z-score: Half of this is easy, a z-score in statistics
                    > is the number of standard deviations that you are above
                    > or below the mean, an often useful universal way (units
                    > of measurement don't matter) of comparing different
                    > observations, i.e. players. The more important half
                    > though is: the mean of *what*? What is being measured
                    > here? It might be the "points" variable, or it might
                    > be a rawer +/- measure, or ? Actually, it's probably
                    > not "points", see below.
                    >
                    > PT_wins and ZS_wins: the numbers are far too high
                    > to represent z-scores, but might represent some measure
                    > of "wins produced" by the player (or by his typical
                    > 5-man lineup). I'm guessing one number represents
                    > "wins produced" as estimated by "Points" and the other
                    > as estimated by z-scores. Again, where these z-scores
                    > and offense-defense calculations come from is not clear,
                    > except probably from some sort of WinVal calculation.
                    >
                    > PSalary$, ZSalary$, and Salary$: more mysteries.
                    > Presumably some sort of salary calculation (maybe actual
                    > salary, maybe "estimated" or "deserved" salary), as
                    > calculated using "points" and "z-scores). Why the
                    > Salary$ figures are all 0, and what they represent, is
                    > a mystery to me.
                    >
                    > Teamin: presumably team's minutes played, again it'd
                    > be easy enough to verify this.
                    >
                    > Age, Pos Ht: these are clear.
                    >
                    > Algebra: the biggest mystery to me. And they're in
                    > curly brackets. Maybe they represent a "wins produced"
                    > calculation that comes more from theoretical algebraic
                    > calculations, and which relies less of pure data.
                    >
                    > +/-: Like z-scores, the general meaning is obvious,
                    > but the specific calculation and meaning are unknown.
                    >
                    >
                    > Does Cuban still use WinVal straight from Sagarin and
                    > Winston, or has he turned to variations on it?
                    >
                    >
                    > --MKT
                  • Dean Oliver
                    Can someone repost his info so that the format is clear? I can t even read what s in the columns. DeanO Dean Oliver Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics
                    Message 9 of 10 , Jan 5, 2005
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                      Can someone repost his info so that the format is clear?

                      I can't even read what's in the columns.

                      DeanO

                      Dean Oliver
                      Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics
                      Author, Basketball on Paper
                      http://www.basketballonpaper.com
                      "Basketball on Paper is a revolutionary strike for statistical
                      analysis of the game of basketball..." Hoopsworld.com's Kevin Pelton


                      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "mrintp2000" <shzys@n...> wrote:
                      >
                      > I doubt it's PER, but I can't make any sense of his PTS index???
                      >
                      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas <gabefark@y...> wrote:
                      > > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog entry:
                      > > http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
                      > >
                      > > Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
                      > > guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
                      > > prominently involved....
                      > >
                      > > __________________________________________________
                      > > Do You Yahoo!?
                      > > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
                      > > http://mail.yahoo.com
                    • Gabe Farkas
                      Putting it into NotePad makes it slightly more readable, but I m still struggling with getting it into Excel. A small .txt file is attached... ...
                      Message 10 of 10 , Jan 5, 2005
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                        Putting it into NotePad makes it slightly more
                        readable, but I'm still struggling with getting it
                        into Excel.

                        A small ".txt" file is attached...



                        --- Dean Oliver <deano@...> wrote:

                        >
                        > Can someone repost his info so that the format is
                        > clear?
                        >
                        > I can't even read what's in the columns.
                        >
                        > DeanO
                        >
                        > Dean Oliver
                        > Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics
                        > Author, Basketball on Paper
                        > http://www.basketballonpaper.com
                        > "Basketball on Paper is a revolutionary strike for
                        > statistical
                        > analysis of the game of basketball..."
                        > Hoopsworld.com's Kevin Pelton
                        >
                        >
                        > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "mrintp2000"
                        > <shzys@n...> wrote:
                        > >
                        > > I doubt it's PER, but I can't make any sense of
                        > his PTS index???
                        > >
                        > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas
                        > <gabefark@y...> wrote:
                        > > > Has anyone checked out Mr Cuban's latest blog
                        > entry:
                        > > >
                        > http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973 ?
                        > > >
                        > > > Anyone want to take a crack at deciphering? I'm
                        > > > guessing that PER (or some permutation of it) is
                        > > > prominently involved....
                        > > >
                        > > >
                        > __________________________________________________
                        > > > Do You Yahoo!?
                        > > > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam
                        > protection around
                        > > > http://mail.yahoo.com
                        >
                        >
                        >
                        >

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