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  • HoopStudies
    2 things came up tonight while watching the Celtics game: 1. It looked like there were a fair number of points scored off of offensive rebounds of Walker
    Message 1 of 9 , Jan 31, 2002
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      2 things came up tonight while watching the Celtics game:

      1. It looked like there were a fair number of points scored off of
      offensive rebounds of Walker missed shots. I remember hearing that
      this happened a lot of Dominique Wilkins, too. This would be a way
      that a guy makes his teammates better. I'm just not sure how often
      it happens. My thought was that Stuart M may have tracked whether,
      say, Kobe's missed shots were more likely to be rebounded by the
      Lakers than other players since Kobe definitely draws interior
      defense, leaving guys near the basket.

      2. I wanted to know roughly the percentage of turnovers that were
      bad passes. Basically, how hard is it to get an assist vs making the
      shot depends on how many of those passes go astray. There are
      confounding factors in that not all bad pass turnovers are off
      potential assists, but hopefully offsetting that is that passes on
      potential assists get knocked away, but stay in the possession of the
      offense. Anyway, I looked at the play-by-play for the last 3 nights
      and got a pretty stable estimate of ast/(ast+bp), where bp is bad
      pass turnovers. That estimate was 0.77. About 40% of all turnovers
      were bp's. If you multiply that 40% by turnovers of seasons past,
      you also come up with about 77% for the ast/(ast+bp). The next thing
      to do would be to see whether ast/(ast+bp) is actually a good
      estimate of the percentage of potential assist passes that actually
      get to the player. I know, this is a little esoteric, but it's
      useful to me. Knowing how hard it is to do different aspects of
      basketball gives you a sense for how to weight the different
      contributions....

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
    • mikel_ind
      ... Any time a player plays a lot of minutes for a good team, and is a featured scorer, despite a low shooting percentage, you might assume there is sound
      Message 2 of 9 , Feb 1, 2002
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
        > 1. It looked like there were a fair number of points scored off of
        > offensive rebounds of Walker missed shots. I remember hearing that
        > this happened a lot of Dominique Wilkins, too. This would be a way
        > that a guy makes his teammates better. I'm just not sure how often
        > it happens.

        Any time a player plays a lot of minutes for a good team, and is a
        featured scorer, despite a low shooting percentage, you might assume
        there is sound reasoning behind it.
        Finley, Sprewell, Jordan (this year), Stackhouse, Iverson, for
        example.
        Even on bad teams, Mercer, Jamison, Van Exel, perhaps even Jason
        Williams, can chuck up lots of misses, yet their presence on the
        floor is preferable to their not being there.
        You might even say these players' gunning is essential to their
        teams' well-being. (The Finley discussion we had earlier doesn't
        make sense outside the context of the Mavs' weak schedule for those
        13 games he missed.)

        Not only do the creative scorers disrupt the defense, opening up
        offensive-rebounding possibilities. The fact that you have a
        Stackhouse creates a job for a Ben Wallace. He wouldn't do as much
        with, say, the Jazz.
        Not only rebounding "specialists", but spot-up shooters see more
        playing time when you have the "creators" mixing it up. Thus you see
        Nash, Houston, Whitney, Atkins, McKie, Hoiberg, Lenard, etc. getting
        open looks thanks to their more active runningmates.

        Offensive "efficiency" is not what one player does when he has the
        ball, it's what his team can do when he has it.

        Mike Goodman
      • HoopStudies
        ... assume ... I think the problem is the assumption that gets made (that it s better having low efficiency creative scorers). What I d like to get past is
        Message 3 of 9 , Feb 1, 2002
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          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "mikel_ind" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
          > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
          >
          > Any time a player plays a lot of minutes for a good team, and is a
          > featured scorer, despite a low shooting percentage, you might
          assume
          > there is sound reasoning behind it.
          > Finley, Sprewell, Jordan (this year), Stackhouse, Iverson, for
          > example.
          > Even on bad teams, Mercer, Jamison, Van Exel, perhaps even Jason
          > Williams, can chuck up lots of misses, yet their presence on the
          > floor is preferable to their not being there.

          I think the problem is the "assumption" that gets made (that it's
          better having low efficiency creative scorers). What I'd like to get
          past is that assumption. What is it that they do that helps the team
          and, more importantly, can we measure it? We all seem to agree that
          these other things they do are

          1. Freeing people up for offensive rebounds.
          2. Freeing people up for easy shots.

          Basically, they raise the efficiency of their teammates relative to
          other people (whoever those "other people" are). The problem is how
          to measure this. I don't want to identify guys who we think do this
          and measure only them. I want to possibly measure the number of
          offensive rebounds off all players' shots. I want to possibly
          measure the FG% off different players' assists. That kind of stuff.
          Supposedly, Sprewell, Finley, Stack, etc. improve something about the
          efficiency of their teammates. What is it? How does it happen? We
          MUST be able to measure it.

          -Isiah Rider was a very good example of a guy who was a "creative
          scorer", but who really was a bad player.

          -All those guys left for expansion drafts -- many of them became high
          scorers on bad teams. Does that mean they're good? No. Ron Mercer
          fits that mold a little right now.

          -Latrell Sprewell is someone who has not been a very efficient scorer
          and has generally been on teams with indisputably poor offenses. He
          didn't become top scorer in GS until the good players -- Webber and
          Hardaway -- left and the team's offense went to hell. Would NY now
          be worse without him? I'm not convinced, though it clearly depends
          on who you replace him with. (Allan Houston ain't great either.)

          -Iverson, despite his rap as a poor shooter, has generally been at or
          above the league average efficiency because the guy gets to the line,
          passes the ball (yes), and doesn't turn the ball over all that much.

          -Jamison's numbers fluctuate tremendously, but average below the
          league numbers for efficiency. His back-to-back 50 pt games last
          year were outstanding games, but relied on his unreliable jump shot.

          -Van Exel actually has been a pretty efficient scorer throughout his
          career, just very erratic from game to game, and a poor defender.

          -Stackhouse has improved his efficiency a bit through his career, but
          last year's Pistons team was still well below average offensively
          last year. Stackhouse was less efficient last year than Iverson (and
          Detroit was less efficient than Philly).

          One of the studies I'm bound to do is to look at all the teams of the
          last decade or so, collect their offensive efficiency ratings as a
          team, and look at the individual offensive ratings I calculate for
          their top scorer (along with how many possessions they use). There
          should be a strong correlation. Given the doubt there can be in
          individual efficiency numbers and their effect on a team's offense, I
          would hope this would clear things up a bit.

          >
          > Not only do the creative scorers disrupt the defense, opening up
          > offensive-rebounding possibilities. The fact that you have a
          > Stackhouse creates a job for a Ben Wallace. He wouldn't do as much
          > with, say, the Jazz.
          > Not only rebounding "specialists", but spot-up shooters see more
          > playing time when you have the "creators" mixing it up. Thus you
          see
          > Nash, Houston, Whitney, Atkins, McKie, Hoiberg, Lenard, etc.
          getting
          > open looks thanks to their more active runningmates.
          >

          Nash creates for himself very well. So does Nowitzki. I think that
          may be why the absence of Finley really didn't hurt the Dallas
          offense.

          > Offensive "efficiency" is not what one player does when he has the
          > ball, it's what his team can do when he has it.

          Teammates give a guy the ball because they know he can score or find
          someone who can score more efficiently than they can. That is what I
          try to measure.

          Dean Oliver
          Journal of Basketball Studies
        • John W. Craven
          ... I d guess that you d need to track rebound rates off of missed shots for each of these shooters. Personally, I m not sure that I buy the argument, but as
          Message 4 of 9 , Feb 1, 2002
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            On Fri, 1 Feb 2002, HoopStudies wrote:

            > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "mikel_ind" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
            > > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
            > >
            > > Any time a player plays a lot of minutes for a good team, and is a
            > > featured scorer, despite a low shooting percentage, you might
            > assume
            > > there is sound reasoning behind it.
            > > Finley, Sprewell, Jordan (this year), Stackhouse, Iverson, for
            > > example.
            > > Even on bad teams, Mercer, Jamison, Van Exel, perhaps even Jason
            > > Williams, can chuck up lots of misses, yet their presence on the
            > > floor is preferable to their not being there.
            >
            > I think the problem is the "assumption" that gets made (that it's
            > better having low efficiency creative scorers). What I'd like to get
            > past is that assumption. What is it that they do that helps the team
            > and, more importantly, can we measure it? We all seem to agree that
            > these other things they do are
            >
            > 1. Freeing people up for offensive rebounds.
            > 2. Freeing people up for easy shots.
            >
            > Basically, they raise the efficiency of their teammates relative to
            > other people (whoever those "other people" are). The problem is how
            > to measure this. I don't want to identify guys who we think do this
            > and measure only them. I want to possibly measure the number of
            > offensive rebounds off all players' shots. I want to possibly
            > measure the FG% off different players' assists. That kind of stuff.
            > Supposedly, Sprewell, Finley, Stack, etc. improve something about the
            > efficiency of their teammates. What is it? How does it happen? We
            > MUST be able to measure it.
            >

            I'd guess that you'd need to track rebound rates off of missed shots for each of these shooters. Personally, I'm not sure that I buy the argument, but as of now there's really no evidence either way - except as I'll append below.

            > -Isiah Rider was a very good example of a guy who was a "creative
            > scorer", but who really was a bad player.
            >


            But was his ability to create his own shots the reason why he was a bad player? I'm thinking not; in fact, I'm thinking that it had more to do with his absolutely horrendous defense - this is a guy who said at the beginning of this season that he didn't work hard on that end of the floor and didn't see the need to. His stats actually show him to be a fairly efficient player - mid-40s shooting percentage throughout his career with a lot of 3s, and a pretty good amount of FTs until the last couple years.

            Also, he was reportedly a poor practice player, which won't show up in the stats but will make a guy a real pain in the ass for his team.

            > -All those guys left for expansion drafts -- many of them became high
            > scorers on bad teams. Does that mean they're good? No. Ron Mercer
            > fits that mold a little right now.

            That's attributable to the Bad Team Effect. I _know_ that this exists, but I want to quantify it. As of right now, my team-defense adjustments seem to account for it pretty well.

            >
            > -Latrell Sprewell is someone who has not been a very efficient scorer
            > and has generally been on teams with indisputably poor offenses. He
            > didn't become top scorer in GS until the good players -- Webber and
            > Hardaway -- left and the team's offense went to hell. Would NY now
            > be worse without him? I'm not convinced, though it clearly depends
            > on who you replace him with. (Allan Houston ain't great either.)
            >
            > -Iverson, despite his rap as a poor shooter, has generally been at or
            > above the league average efficiency because the guy gets to the line,
            > passes the ball (yes), and doesn't turn the ball over all that much.

            I actually had Iverson as one of the 10 best players in basketball last year. The way I figure scoring, I assume that, as a function of being a member of an offense, any player on a team will make a specific amount of baskets per minute on the floor (which I figure out for each team by dividing assists by minutes played). Anything above that is, so to speak, gravy; the net effect is that guys who shoot 50% from the floor but make 4 attempts per game aren't rated ahead of guys who shoot 25 times a night at a 45% clip.

            Today's game is predicated too much on the ability of individual players to create their own shots to ignore this, IMO. No team in the league eschews the isolation play, guys who run the pick and roll well are going to get freed up for more shots than those who don't, and when there are 2 or 3 seconds left on the shot clock then that create-shots ability is of tantamount importance.

            >
            > -Jamison's numbers fluctuate tremendously, but average below the
            > league numbers for efficiency. His back-to-back 50 pt games last
            > year were outstanding games, but relied on his unreliable jump shot.
            >

            Again thanks to the vaunted team-defense adjustment, I have Jamison rated very, very low. In some cases, I think that the team-defense thing is unfair, but in Jamison's case he's really not a very good defender at all, and this gets reflected somewhat.

            > -Van Exel actually has been a pretty efficient scorer throughout his
            > career, just very erratic from game to game, and a poor defender.

            Also a very underrated passer. His defense seems to be erratic as well; for example, he gives Gary Payton fits on both ends of the court.

            >
            > -Stackhouse has improved his efficiency a bit through his career, but
            > last year's Pistons team was still well below average offensively
            > last year. Stackhouse was less efficient last year than Iverson (and
            > Detroit was less efficient than Philly).
            >
            > One of the studies I'm bound to do is to look at all the teams of the
            > last decade or so, collect their offensive efficiency ratings as a
            > team, and look at the individual offensive ratings I calculate for
            > their top scorer (along with how many possessions they use). There
            > should be a strong correlation. Given the doubt there can be in
            > individual efficiency numbers and their effect on a team's offense, I
            > would hope this would clear things up a bit.
            >
            > >
            > > Not only do the creative scorers disrupt the defense, opening up
            > > offensive-rebounding possibilities. The fact that you have a
            > > Stackhouse creates a job for a Ben Wallace. He wouldn't do as much
            > > with, say, the Jazz.
            > > Not only rebounding "specialists", but spot-up shooters see more
            > > playing time when you have the "creators" mixing it up. Thus you
            > see
            > > Nash, Houston, Whitney, Atkins, McKie, Hoiberg, Lenard, etc.
            > getting
            > > open looks thanks to their more active runningmates.
            > >
            >
            > Nash creates for himself very well. So does Nowitzki. I think that
            > may be why the absence of Finley really didn't hurt the Dallas
            > offense.
            >
            > > Offensive "efficiency" is not what one player does when he has the
            > > ball, it's what his team can do when he has it.
            >
            > Teammates give a guy the ball because they know he can score or find
            > someone who can score more efficiently than they can. That is what I
            > try to measure.
            >
            > Dean Oliver
            > Journal of Basketball Studies
            >
            >
            >
            > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
            > APBR_analysis-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
            >
            >
            >
            > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
            >
            >
            >
          • HoopStudies
            ... bad player? I m thinking not; in fact, I m thinking that it had more to do with his absolutely horrendous defense - this is a guy who said at the beginning
            Message 5 of 9 , Feb 1, 2002
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              --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John W. Craven" <john1974@u...> wrote:
              >
              > > -Isiah Rider was a very good example of a guy who was a "creative
              > > scorer", but who really was a bad player.
              > >
              >
              >
              > But was his ability to create his own shots the reason why he was a
              bad player? I'm thinking not; in fact, I'm thinking that it had more
              to do with his absolutely horrendous defense - this is a guy who said
              at the beginning of this season that he didn't work hard on that end
              of the floor and didn't see the need to. His stats actually show him
              to be a fairly efficient player - mid-40s shooting percentage
              throughout his career with a lot of 3s, and a pretty good amount of
              FTs until the last couple years.

              I don't have my numbers here at work and I hate speaking out of my
              bad memory, but here goes -- he was typically scoring the most for
              his team, but always less efficiently than his teammates and when he
              changed teams, the offense of his new team got worse, the offense of
              his old team got better. Would that qualify as a bad offensive
              player? Not necessarily. Not if he was being traded for outstanding
              offensive guys. I'd need to look.

              > > -All those guys left for expansion drafts -- many of them became
              high
              > > scorers on bad teams. Does that mean they're good? No. Ron
              Mercer
              > > fits that mold a little right now.
              >
              > That's attributable to the Bad Team Effect. I _know_ that this
              exists, but I want to quantify it. As of right now, my team-defense
              adjustments seem to account for it pretty well.

              The "Bad Team Effect"? A guy's teammates bring him down? Is that
              what you're saying? Do we have any evidence that Mercer was ever a
              good offensive player before? Why didn't Rider's offensive numbers
              get better when playing with better teammates?

              Other questions: Should David Robinson's efficiency get better
              because Duncan is around? Did Stephon Marbury make Kevin Garnett
              better? If Larry Hughes were to go to Chicago, would he or Mercer
              take more shots? Would Chicago get better? Was Antonio Davis a
              worse player in Indiana because he didn't score as much as he does in
              Toronto? Should Davis' efficiency have been higher when he was
              surrounded by Reggie Miller, Rik Smits, and Chris Mullin than when
              his teammates are Vince Carter, Alvin Williams, Keon Clark? Jason
              Terry has been playing on a rather pitiful team, but his efficiency
              is above average, well above Mercer's. Both bad teams and Terry
              didn't have Brand around last year.

              Answering them all is above any simple rating system.

              > > -Iverson, despite his rap as a poor shooter, has generally been
              at or
              > > above the league average efficiency because the guy gets to the
              line,
              > > passes the ball (yes), and doesn't turn the ball over all that
              much.
              >
              > I actually had Iverson as one of the 10 best players in basketball
              last year. The way I figure scoring, I assume that, as a function of
              being a member of an offense, any player on a team will make a
              specific amount of baskets per minute on the floor (which I figure
              out for each team by dividing assists by minutes played). Anything
              above that is, so to speak, gravy; the net effect is that guys who
              shoot 50% from the floor but make 4 attempts per game aren't rated
              ahead of guys who shoot 25 times a night at a 45% clip.

              I don't officially rank players with one overall number. I calculate
              things like win-loss records, net points per game, offensive and
              defensive efficiencies. By everything but offensive efficiency,
              Iverson ranked very high last year. And I checked team numbers to
              see whether the individual numbers made sense. They generally did.
              He was important. I did that again this year when he missed time and
              posted it in an earlier message.

              >
              > Today's game is predicated too much on the ability of individual
              players to create their own shots to ignore this, IMO. No team in the
              league eschews the isolation play, guys who run the pick and roll
              well are going to get freed up for more shots than those who don't,
              and when there are 2 or 3 seconds left on the shot clock then that
              create-shots ability is of tantamount importance.

              Definitely. No one is questioning that.

              >
              > > -Van Exel actually has been a pretty efficient scorer throughout
              his
              > > career, just very erratic from game to game, and a poor defender.
              >
              > Also a very underrated passer. His defense seems to be erratic as
              well; for example, he gives Gary Payton fits on both ends of the
              court.

              I think Van Exel is underrated for his passing because he too often
              comes down court and throws up an early shot. He is not a bad passer
              nor a bad shooter, but he can be a very bad decision-maker.
              Especially when he played with Shaq, it really upset his teammates
              and coaches that he would come down the court at the end of a tight
              game where he was supposed to get the ball to Shaq, but just throw up
              a 3pt shot (and he admittedly made a few). Whenever I see him, he
              makes a couple bonehead decisions a game. With a less talented
              surrounding cast now, some of those 3pt shots don't seem as
              boneheaded, of course. Context is important. Decent player, but one
              that can drive a coach crazy.
            • John W. Craven
              ... Actually, exactly the opposite. A mediocre player on a bad team will put up numbers ahead of what he s shown to be capable of. I noticed this in the
              Message 6 of 9 , Feb 1, 2002
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                On Fri, 1 Feb 2002, HoopStudies wrote:

                > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John W. Craven" <john1974@u...> wrote:
                > >
                > > > -Isiah Rider was a very good example of a guy who was a "creative
                > > > scorer", but who really was a bad player.
                > > >
                > >
                > >
                > > But was his ability to create his own shots the reason why he was a
                > bad player? I'm thinking not; in fact, I'm thinking that it had more
                > to do with his absolutely horrendous defense - this is a guy who said
                > at the beginning of this season that he didn't work hard on that end
                > of the floor and didn't see the need to. His stats actually show him
                > to be a fairly efficient player - mid-40s shooting percentage
                > throughout his career with a lot of 3s, and a pretty good amount of
                > FTs until the last couple years.
                >
                > I don't have my numbers here at work and I hate speaking out of my
                > bad memory, but here goes -- he was typically scoring the most for
                > his team, but always less efficiently than his teammates and when he
                > changed teams, the offense of his new team got worse, the offense of
                > his old team got better. Would that qualify as a bad offensive
                > player? Not necessarily. Not if he was being traded for outstanding
                > offensive guys. I'd need to look.
                >
                > > > -All those guys left for expansion drafts -- many of them became
                > high
                > > > scorers on bad teams. Does that mean they're good? No. Ron
                > Mercer
                > > > fits that mold a little right now.
                > >
                > > That's attributable to the Bad Team Effect. I _know_ that this
                > exists, but I want to quantify it. As of right now, my team-defense
                > adjustments seem to account for it pretty well.
                >
                > The "Bad Team Effect"? A guy's teammates bring him down?

                Actually, exactly the opposite. A mediocre player on a bad team will put up numbers ahead of what he's shown to be "capable" of. I noticed this in the expansion years.

                > Is that
                > what you're saying? Do we have any evidence that Mercer was ever a
                > good offensive player before?

                No, in fact we have evidence that he's *not* a good offensive player, and yet he puts up attractive offensive numbers. I'm of the opinion that this is a direct result of his playing for a crappy team and being the least bad of all the bad options available.

                > Why didn't Rider's offensive numbers
                > get better when playing with better teammates?

                Well, this is exactly my point. Sorry I didn't explain myself better.

                >
                > Other questions: Should David Robinson's efficiency get better
                > because Duncan is around? Did Stephon Marbury make Kevin Garnett
                > better? If Larry Hughes were to go to Chicago, would he or Mercer
                > take more shots? Would Chicago get better? Was Antonio Davis a
                > worse player in Indiana because he didn't score as much as he does in
                > Toronto? Should Davis' efficiency have been higher when he was
                > surrounded by Reggie Miller, Rik Smits, and Chris Mullin than when
                > his teammates are Vince Carter, Alvin Williams, Keon Clark? Jason
                > Terry has been playing on a rather pitiful team, but his efficiency
                > is above average, well above Mercer's. Both bad teams and Terry
                > didn't have Brand around last year.
                >
                > Answering them all is above any simple rating system.
                >
                > > > -Iverson, despite his rap as a poor shooter, has generally been
                > at or
                > > > above the league average efficiency because the guy gets to the
                > line,
                > > > passes the ball (yes), and doesn't turn the ball over all that
                > much.
                > >
                > > I actually had Iverson as one of the 10 best players in basketball
                > last year. The way I figure scoring, I assume that, as a function of
                > being a member of an offense, any player on a team will make a
                > specific amount of baskets per minute on the floor (which I figure
                > out for each team by dividing assists by minutes played). Anything
                > above that is, so to speak, gravy; the net effect is that guys who
                > shoot 50% from the floor but make 4 attempts per game aren't rated
                > ahead of guys who shoot 25 times a night at a 45% clip.
                >
                > I don't officially rank players with one overall number. I calculate
                > things like win-loss records, net points per game, offensive and
                > defensive efficiencies. By everything but offensive efficiency,
                > Iverson ranked very high last year. And I checked team numbers to
                > see whether the individual numbers made sense. They generally did.
                > He was important. I did that again this year when he missed time and
                > posted it in an earlier message.
                >
                > >
                > > Today's game is predicated too much on the ability of individual
                > players to create their own shots to ignore this, IMO. No team in the
                > league eschews the isolation play, guys who run the pick and roll
                > well are going to get freed up for more shots than those who don't,
                > and when there are 2 or 3 seconds left on the shot clock then that
                > create-shots ability is of tantamount importance.
                >
                > Definitely. No one is questioning that.
                >
                > >
                > > > -Van Exel actually has been a pretty efficient scorer throughout
                > his
                > > > career, just very erratic from game to game, and a poor defender.
                > >
                > > Also a very underrated passer. His defense seems to be erratic as
                > well; for example, he gives Gary Payton fits on both ends of the
                > court.
                >
                > I think Van Exel is underrated for his passing because he too often
                > comes down court and throws up an early shot. He is not a bad passer
                > nor a bad shooter, but he can be a very bad decision-maker.

                Yeah, I totally agree.

                > Especially when he played with Shaq, it really upset his teammates
                > and coaches that he would come down the court at the end of a tight
                > game where he was supposed to get the ball to Shaq, but just throw up
                > a 3pt shot (and he admittedly made a few). Whenever I see him, he
                > makes a couple bonehead decisions a game. With a less talented
                > surrounding cast now, some of those 3pt shots don't seem as
                > boneheaded, of course. Context is important. Decent player, but one
                > that can drive a coach crazy.

                Yeah, I've always kind of wondered about him. He seems to be the kind of guy who is, by dint of his playing style, completely unable to "tone down" his game to accomodate better teammates. I guess that if he could, he'd still be a Laker.

                John Craven
              • thedawgsareout
                ... will put up numbers ahead of what he s shown to be capable of. I noticed this in the expansion years. I may too be mis-reading this, but wouldn t that
                Message 7 of 9 , Feb 1, 2002
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                  --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John W. Craven" <john1974@u...> wrote:
                  > Actually, exactly the opposite. A mediocre player on a bad team
                  will put up numbers ahead of what he's shown to be "capable" of. I
                  noticed this in the expansion years.

                  I may too be mis-reading this, but wouldn't that really only be the
                  case if we were looking at primary statistics? Yes, the scoring
                  average may go up, but any effective system of statistical analysis
                  is going to show that this isn't an improvement, but merely the
                  effect of more chances.

                  If we're looking at a player's offensive effectiveness based in
                  significant part on an efficiency ratio like points in possessions
                  used, or something like that, I think the opposite effect is seen
                  with secondary players. A guy that depends on teammates (Steve Kerr,
                  for example) to create for him is going to have effectiveness which
                  is largely a function of the quality of said teammates.

                  It's my opinion (hope?) that doing something along the lines of my
                  unassisted/assisted field goal project (I'm putting the results at
                  www.sonicscentral.com/assists/index.html in case anyone besides DeanO
                  is interested) will help to control to some extent for this effect.
                • John Craven
                  ... From: thedawgsareout To: Sent: Friday, February 01, 2002 2:08 PM Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re:
                  Message 8 of 9 , Feb 1, 2002
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                    ----- Original Message -----
                    From: "thedawgsareout" <kpelton08@...>
                    To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
                    Sent: Friday, February 01, 2002 2:08 PM
                    Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Again on the Rider's of the world


                    > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John W. Craven" <john1974@u...> wrote:
                    > > Actually, exactly the opposite. A mediocre player on a bad team
                    > will put up numbers ahead of what he's shown to be "capable" of. I
                    > noticed this in the expansion years.
                    >
                    > I may too be mis-reading this, but wouldn't that really only be the
                    > case if we were looking at primary statistics? Yes, the scoring
                    > average may go up, but any effective system of statistical analysis
                    > is going to show that this isn't an improvement, but merely the
                    > effect of more chances.

                    From what I've seen so far, I don't think so. One of my points with the
                    creating-shots skill was that, all other things being equal, a 45% shooter
                    who takes 25 shots a game is a more skilled player than a 45% shooter who
                    takes 10 shots a game. The problem is, when one team wins 20 games and the
                    other wins 55, then all other things _aren't_ equal. Allen Iverson is a very
                    good player; Antawn Jamison (IMO) is not.

                    >
                    > If we're looking at a player's offensive effectiveness based in
                    > significant part on an efficiency ratio like points in possessions
                    > used, or something like that, I think the opposite effect is seen
                    > with secondary players. A guy that depends on teammates (Steve Kerr,
                    > for example) to create for him is going to have effectiveness which
                    > is largely a function of the quality of said teammates.
                    >
                    > It's my opinion (hope?) that doing something along the lines of my
                    > unassisted/assisted field goal project (I'm putting the results at
                    > www.sonicscentral.com/assists/index.html in case anyone besides DeanO
                    > is interested) will help to control to some extent for this effect.
                    >
                    >
                    > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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                    >
                    >
                    >
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                    >
                    >
                    >
                  • mikel_ind
                    ... Having played just a bit, I would say Jamison is very, very good, and Iverson is great; Jamison is a star, Iverson is a superstar. Mike Goodman
                    Message 9 of 9 , Feb 1, 2002
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                      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John Craven" <john1974@u...> wrote:
                      > . . . Allen Iverson is a very
                      > good player; Antawn Jamison (IMO) is not.

                      Having played just a bit, I would say Jamison is very, very good,
                      and Iverson is great; Jamison is a star, Iverson is a superstar.


                      Mike Goodman
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