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Re: Phoenix Suns

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  • John Hollinger
    Nash, Marion and Stoudemire all are playing well above their career norms. Nash and Marion can probably be expected to regress a little since they re
    Message 1 of 9 , Dec 3, 2004
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      Nash, Marion and Stoudemire all are playing well above their career
      norms. Nash and Marion can probably be expected to regress a little
      since they're mid-career players. For Stoudemire, this just looks to
      me like his natural evolution into the next Karl Malone.

      I should point out that Quentin Richardson has been significantly
      BELOW his averages thus far, so he could make up some of the
      inevitable Nash/Marion decline. Big issue for Phoenix is what happens
      if anybody gets hurt, because the bench is awful. That's what killed
      them last year.



      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Coach McCormick
      <highfivehoopschool@y...> wrote:
      > Nash is shooting 50+% from the floor and leading the league in
      assists. Plus, he provides veteran leadership to a team that is
      otherwise a bunch of kids and he pushes the ball like no other:
      despite Nowitski's play, Dallas' scoring is down 8 PPG from last
      season.
      >
      > Mike G <msg_53@h...> wrote:
      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "monepeterson" <mone@s...>
      > wrote:
      > >
      > > Curious what the thought was on the Suns hot start so far. What
      are
      > > the differences so far in how they're playing this year as
      opposed
      > to
      > > last year. Is Nash having any quantifiable effect?
      >
      > Short answer: Amare is about twice the player he was last year.
      His
      > inside presence covers for the team's lack of a center. Nash's
      > offensive Presence covers for his lack of defense.
      >
      > They don't look very deep, though. Good starting 5; nothing behind
      > them.
      >
      >
      >
      >
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    • Mike G
      ... career ... little ... Marion should still improve at his age. Last couple of years he kind of stalled out at sub-allstar level. The doldrums, between
      Message 2 of 9 , Dec 4, 2004
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
        <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
        >
        > Nash, Marion and Stoudemire all are playing well above their
        career
        > norms. Nash and Marion can probably be expected to regress a
        little
        > since they're mid-career players.

        Marion should still improve at his age. Last couple of years he
        kind of stalled out at sub-allstar level. The doldrums, between
        Kidd and Nash.


        > For Stoudemire, this just looks to
        > me like his natural evolution into the next Karl Malone.

        He doesn't rebound like the Mailman, though. The Suns have no
        center; their SF Marion is their top rebounder.

        Stoud and Nash have pretty much unthinkable shooting % going so
        far. They're sure to drop off some.


        On the subject of Rest: Does anyone else think it's not that much
        more stressful to run and gun/dunk, than to play grindball? The
        other team has to run to keep up; and defense gets more tired,
        making your work easier.
      • wimpds
        I m not sure Stoudemire s FG% is sustainable. Nash s almost certainly is not. Ben
        Message 3 of 9 , Dec 4, 2004
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          I'm not sure Stoudemire's FG% is sustainable. Nash's almost certainly
          is not.

          Ben



          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
          <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
          >
          > Nash, Marion and Stoudemire all are playing well above their career
          > norms. Nash and Marion can probably be expected to regress a little
          > since they're mid-career players. For Stoudemire, this just looks to
          > me like his natural evolution into the next Karl Malone.
          >
          > I should point out that Quentin Richardson has been significantly
          > BELOW his averages thus far, so he could make up some of the
          > inevitable Nash/Marion decline. Big issue for Phoenix is what happens
          > if anybody gets hurt, because the bench is awful. That's what killed
          > them last year.
          >
          >
          >
          > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Coach McCormick
          > <highfivehoopschool@y...> wrote:
          > > Nash is shooting 50+% from the floor and leading the league in
          > assists. Plus, he provides veteran leadership to a team that is
          > otherwise a bunch of kids and he pushes the ball like no other:
          > despite Nowitski's play, Dallas' scoring is down 8 PPG from last
          > season.



          > >
          > > Mike G <msg_53@h...> wrote:
          > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "monepeterson" <mone@s...>
          > > wrote:
          > > >
          > > > Curious what the thought was on the Suns hot start so far. What
          > are
          > > > the differences so far in how they're playing this year as
          > opposed
          > > to
          > > > last year. Is Nash having any quantifiable effect?
          > >
          > > Short answer: Amare is about twice the player he was last year.
          > His
          > > inside presence covers for the team's lack of a center. Nash's
          > > offensive Presence covers for his lack of defense.
          > >
          > > They don't look very deep, though. Good starting 5; nothing behind
          > > them.
          > >
          > >
          > >
          > >
          > > Yahoo! Groups SponsorADVERTISEMENT
          > >
          > >
          > > ---------------------------------
          > > Yahoo! Groups Links
          > >
          > > To visit your group on the web, go to:
          > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/
          > >
          > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
          > > APBR_analysis-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
          > >
          > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
          > Service.
          > >
          > >
          > >
          > >
          > > ---------------------------------
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          > > Jazz up your holiday email with celebrity designs. Learn more.
        • dan_t_rosenbaum
          I think the Phoenix Suns are a perfect case where stats-folks like us can really miss the boat. Last season because of his poor passing and the Sun s poor
          Message 4 of 9 , Dec 5, 2004
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            I think the Phoenix Suns are a perfect case where stats-folks like
            us can really miss the boat. Last season because of his poor
            passing and the Sun's poor spacing, Stoudemire was very susceptible
            to double teams. This season by surrounding Stoudemire with four
            three point shooters, one being a fabulous passer in Steve Nash, it
            is going to be very costly for teams to double team Stoudemire.
            Throw in the extra fast break baskets and point blank feeds by Nash
            and I think it is very possible that Stoudemire maintains something
            close to his current field goal percentage. And his passing appears
            to be getting better too.

            The Sun's offense with four legitimate three point shooters opens up
            the post for Stoudemire, drives for Nash, and slashes to the basket
            for Johnson, Marion, and Richardson. And this is when teams are
            successful getting the Suns into a half court game. Personally, I
            was a skeptic of the Suns' moves this summer, but I was wrong
            because I did not see how the interactions between these players
            would make them all better.

            (Unfortunately, I was not wise enough to keep this skepticism to
            myself, so I recently ate some humble pie in a correspondence with a
            member of the Suns' front office.)

            And on defense the size, strength, length, and quickness of Marion,
            Richardson, and Johnson make this a very effective trapping team,
            which compensates for Stoudemire and Nash not being great
            defenders. This is a perfect case of the sum being much greater
            than the parts.

            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
            <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
            >
            > Nash, Marion and Stoudemire all are playing well above their
            career
            > norms. Nash and Marion can probably be expected to regress a
            little
            > since they're mid-career players. For Stoudemire, this just looks
            to
            > me like his natural evolution into the next Karl Malone.
            >
            > I should point out that Quentin Richardson has been significantly
            > BELOW his averages thus far, so he could make up some of the
            > inevitable Nash/Marion decline. Big issue for Phoenix is what
            happens
            > if anybody gets hurt, because the bench is awful. That's what
            killed
            > them last year.
            >
            >
            >
            > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Coach McCormick
            > <highfivehoopschool@y...> wrote:
            > > Nash is shooting 50+% from the floor and leading the league in
            > assists. Plus, he provides veteran leadership to a team that is
            > otherwise a bunch of kids and he pushes the ball like no other:
            > despite Nowitski's play, Dallas' scoring is down 8 PPG from last
            > season.
            > >
            > > Mike G <msg_53@h...> wrote:
            > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "monepeterson" <mone@s...>
            > > wrote:
            > > >
            > > > Curious what the thought was on the Suns hot start so far.
            What
            > are
            > > > the differences so far in how they're playing this year as
            > opposed
            > > to
            > > > last year. Is Nash having any quantifiable effect?
            > >
            > > Short answer: Amare is about twice the player he was last year.
            > His
            > > inside presence covers for the team's lack of a center. Nash's
            > > offensive Presence covers for his lack of defense.
            > >
            > > They don't look very deep, though. Good starting 5; nothing
            behind
            > > them.
            > >
            > >
            > >
            > >
            > > Yahoo! Groups SponsorADVERTISEMENT
            > >
            > >
            > > ---------------------------------
            > > Yahoo! Groups Links
            > >
            > > To visit your group on the web, go to:
            > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/
            > >
            > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
            > > APBR_analysis-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
            > >
            > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
            > Service.
            > >
            > >
            > >
            > >
            > > ---------------------------------
            > > Do you Yahoo!?
            > > Jazz up your holiday email with celebrity designs. Learn more.
          • thedawgsareout
            ... Dan, while you raise great points about why people like us missed the boat on the Suns and I completely agree, I would point out that a lot of other people
            Message 5 of 9 , Dec 10, 2004
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              > I think the Phoenix Suns are a perfect case where stats-folks like
              > us can really miss the boat.

              Dan, while you raise great points about why people like us missed
              the boat on the Suns and I completely agree, I would point out that
              a lot of other people missed the boat too.

              I had Phoenix 11th in the West, but basically even with the 9th and
              10th teams.

              NBA.com and _Sports Illustrated_ both had the Suns 10th. Marc Stein
              had them slightly better, eighth. Only Bill Simmons of the previews
              I quickly glanced at had the Suns substantially higher -- fifth.
            • John Hollinger
              One thing I will say about predictions in general: Injuries wreak havoc with them. A team like Phoenix that has had no substantial injuries will almost always
              Message 6 of 9 , Dec 10, 2004
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                One thing I will say about predictions in general: Injuries wreak
                havoc with them. A team like Phoenix that has had no substantial
                injuries will almost always outperform their expectation, as opposed
                to a team like, oh, say, New Orleans. The general rule of thumb in
                the NBA is that at least one starter is injured, and if you're not in
                that situation you're lucky.

                It's especially true in the Suns' case. The last two years they've
                been great when everyone's healthy and pretty weak when somebody's
                been hurt, because their bench players haven't been up to snuff.



                --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "thedawgsareout"
                <kpelton08@h...> wrote:
                >
                > > I think the Phoenix Suns are a perfect case where stats-folks
                like
                > > us can really miss the boat.
                >
                > Dan, while you raise great points about why people like us missed
                > the boat on the Suns and I completely agree, I would point out that
                > a lot of other people missed the boat too.
                >
                > I had Phoenix 11th in the West, but basically even with the 9th and
                > 10th teams.
                >
                > NBA.com and _Sports Illustrated_ both had the Suns 10th. Marc Stein
                > had them slightly better, eighth. Only Bill Simmons of the previews
                > I quickly glanced at had the Suns substantially higher -- fifth.
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