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RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Defining Team Turnovers & Team Rebounds

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  • Michael Tamada
    ... From: Gabe Farkas [mailto:gabefark@yahoo.com] Sent: Wednesday, November 24, 2004 4:31 PM [...] ... It s another case of the ambiguity of the word, and for
    Message 1 of 7 , Nov 24, 2004
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      -----Original Message-----
      From: Gabe Farkas [mailto:gabefark@...]
      Sent: Wednesday, November 24, 2004 4:31 PM

      [...]

      >What if those situations where Evans knocks the ball
      >out of bounds counted as a turnover for him? Wouldn't
      >that rectify the situation? Seems to me that this
      >would make sense, anyway.
      >
      >I mean, the ball WAS out on him...

      It's another case of the ambiguity of the word, and
      for that matter the concept, of "possession". Evans
      can't be charged with a turnover until the Sonics
      gain possession. If the ball is bouncing around
      while the rebounders scramble for it, no one's got
      possession yet. Evans may've failed to get a
      rebound, in effect giving the ball to the opponent,
      but that's not a turnover to the opponent because
      Evans never had possession. Instead it's a team
      rebound to the opponent.


      Also, here's a couple of comments on KevinP's post:

      >--- thedawgsareout <kpelton08@...> wrote:

      [...]

      >> Reggie Evans for the Sonics is a good example of
      >> this. He has bad
      >> hands and is very aggressive, so he knocks a bunch
      >> of rebounds out
      >> of bounds. According to the stats the NBA keeps,
      >> it's as if those
      >> plays never occurred.

      This suggests that ignoring team rebounds (which I
      presume is what most of us do, and simply focus on
      the sum of individuals' rebounds) might lead to some
      inaccuracy, if there are systematic differences
      between the team rebounds of good rebounding teams
      (or players) vs those who are not good (actually,
      Evans is an extremely good rebounder, but at the
      same time KevinP could be correct that he may be
      costing the Sonics some rebounds by knocking some
      out of bounds).

      But the only solution would be for the NBA to keep
      much more detailed stats on team rebounds -- which
      ones were offensive, which ones were defensive,
      which ones were the trivial ones from missed FTs
      and missed buzzer beaters vs which ones were "real"
      such as Evans causing the ball to go to the opponent,
      who was responsible for yielding that team rebd,
      etc.

      > I should point out calling the team turnover issue
      > "serious" is
      > probably an overstatement. There are few team
      > turnovers, and they're
      > probably pretty evenly distributed. It's not like
      > we're going to
      > rate the 2002-03 Nuggets as a good offensive team or
      > something.

      Probably correct, although the Evans example with
      team rebounds raises the question of whether there
      are also players or teams whose style of play results
      in systematically low or high team turnovers.


      --MKT
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