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RE: [APBR_analysis] Fouls & Minutes per Game (Gadzuric)

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  • Michael Tamada
    ... From: sultanoswat@yahoo.com [mailto:sultanoswat@yahoo.com] Sent: Monday, November 01, 2004 9:05 PM ... If you want to come up with some sort of prediction
    Message 1 of 4 , Nov 1, 2004
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      -----Original Message-----
      From: sultanoswat@... [mailto:sultanoswat@...]
      Sent: Monday, November 01, 2004 9:05 PM

      >I noticed that Gadzuric has a very high PF/MIN (7.1PF/48min), and
      >I'm curious:
      >
      >A. How many minutes per game can he average?
      >B. Can he lower that rate & by how much?
      >
      >To do some a quick (and nowhere near complete) study, I looked at
      >high PF/MIN last year, and the highest MIN/G they had over their
      ^^^^
      >career:

      If you want to come up with some sort of prediction for Gadzuric, then
      instead of looking at players with high PF/min THIS year, you want to
      look at players from PAST years who had high PF/min, and who were similar
      in some way to Gadzuric (young centers with similar stats) -- and then
      look to see what subsequently happened to their PF/min and Min/G stats.

      Many of the players on your list are either players who are new, so
      we don't know how their career Min/G will play out (Mihm), or they
      are old players who may not be comparable to Gadzuric (Traylor,
      although for all I know maybe he is comparable).

      My guess is that the majority of these high PF/Min players never do
      become big-minutes players. There are undoubtedly some exceptions,
      ones who became either better players or learned to reduce their
      foulling or most likely both. How to decide whether a player such
      as Gadzuric is in that category or not is I suspect not an easy task.
      Anyone who can make the prediction reliably should get hired as an
      assistant GM or player personnel director.


      --MKT
    • Mike G
      ... The players in this list are all rebounders and/or shotblockers, except for Pavlovic (not sure what he s supposed to do; listed as SF) [Doleac doesn t seem
      Message 2 of 4 , Nov 2, 2004
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, sultanoswat@y... wrote:
        >
        > I noticed that Gadzuric has a very high PF/MIN (7.1PF/48min), and
        > I'm curious:
        >
        > A. How many minutes per game can he average?
        > B. Can he lower that rate & by how much?

        The players in this list are all rebounders and/or shotblockers,
        except for Pavlovic (not sure what he's supposed to do; listed as SF)

        [Doleac doesn't seem to belong here. One of us has an error in
        their data.]

        Other than Gadzuric and Traylor, I'm not sure why you'd want these
        guys to cut down on their fouls. It looks like a major component of
        their job description.

        I guess I still believe in the "good foul". Aside of hacking Shaq,
        there are many instances when you would prefer to put a player at
        the line; if only to make him think twice about trying that again.

        But most fouls are "good" only in the sense that they come with the
        territory. Going after rebounds entails lots of contact, and you
        will get called for some. If your objective is to stay in the game
        (not get fouls), you might not get many rebounds (or blocks).

        >
        > To do some a quick (and nowhere near complete) study, I looked at
        > high PF/MIN last year, and the highest MIN/G they had over their
        > career:
        >
        > 8.7PF/48 - J. James highest MIN/G - 16.9
        > 8.6 - A. DeClercq - 25.6
        > 8.2 - R. Traylor - 17.3
        > 7.8 - A. Pavlovic - 14.5
        > 7.7 - Voskuhl - 24.3
        > 7.5 - C. Mihm - 22.4
        > 7.1 - J. Collins - 21.4
        > 6.7 - M. Madsen - 17.3
        > 6.6 - M. Doleac - 18.2

        It looks like you took guys with 900+ minutes. But also in that
        range are Ervin Johnson, Olowokandi; if you allow 800 minute guys,
        you get Jahidi White, Othella Harrington, Elden Campbell. These
        players have been around the block. They know what their job is.

        Looking at younger players, I suppose, means you are looking for a
        bigger future for them. But unless they learn some real skills,
        what's the point of going for more minutes?

        Several I've mentioned and at least one (Traylor) you've listed are
        seriously overweight. That and getting old will make one slow.
        Being slow means you aren't ahead of your man, but are always trying
        to catch up to him ( = Foul ).

        So, in short, Gadzuric is the one guy who's young and got skills and
        isn't fat (or is he?), among those we've mentioned. Stamina is also
        a factor; maybe he's a smoker. Or lazy.

        >
        > And for the high minute guys - during the year they had their
        > highest MIN/G what was their PF/48 that year?
        >
        > DeClercq - 6.1 PF/48 (lower)
        > Voskuhl same
        > C. Mihm 7.5 PF/48 (higher)
        > J. Collins same
        > Doleac 8.1 PF/48
        >
        > Declerq had a low foul year, but otherwise it might appear that
        > Gadzuric is limited to 21-25 M/G. (otherwise it's a real low
        sample
        > size.)
        >
        > Anyone else do a study on this?
        >
        > Thanks!
      • John Hollinger
        I have to wonder how much of a factor teammates are as well. If you pair Gadzuric with a big burly power forward, maybe he can avoid matchups that require him
        Message 3 of 4 , Nov 2, 2004
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          I have to wonder how much of a factor teammates are as well. If you
          pair Gadzuric with a big burly power forward, maybe he can avoid
          matchups that require him to foul incessantly. But pair him with Joe
          Smith or Toni Kukoc and you've got a problem.

          In the "I wish ..." category, it'd help answer our question if the
          NBA differentiated among types of fouls, especially between over the
          back offensive rebound fouls, stupid 30-foot-from-the-basket fouls,
          and cracking a guy in the skull to save a layup fouls.


          > So, in short, Gadzuric is the one guy who's young and got skills
          and
          > isn't fat (or is he?), among those we've mentioned. Stamina is
          also
          > a factor; maybe he's a smoker. Or lazy.
          >
          >
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