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Re: Winston-Sagarin 2003-04 Ratings

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  • Mike G
    ... wrote: the statistical rating that ... captures ... Looks pretty good -- especially relative to some that we have seen. ... You say you
    Message 1 of 12 , Oct 29, 2004
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "dan_t_rosenbaum"
      <rosenbaum@u...> wrote:
      the statistical rating that
      > I have derived from the adjusted plus/minus statistics. It
      captures
      > practically everything except the noise in the adjusted plus/minus
      > statistics.
      >
      > My top 5 for last season was the following.
      >
      > 1. Kevin Garnett
      > 2. Tim Duncan
      > 3. Shaquille O'Neal
      > 4. Andrei Kirilenko
      > 5. Tracy McGrady

      Looks pretty good -- especially relative to some that we have seen.


      >.. Here is my top five in my adjusted
      > plus/minus ratings (among those playing 2,000 or more minutes).
      >
      > 1. Nene
      > 2. Kevin Garnett
      > 3. Andrei Kirilenko
      > 4. Jason Williams
      > 5. Vince Carter

      You say you prefer the results of the list above, and I have to
      agree. So how exactly do you account for the extreme difference
      here? This (2nd list) is basically a random mix of elite and
      mediocre players.

      Here's a short list of players you have ranked at least 33% higher
      than I did (mine used only last year's stats, players with 1500+
      minutes):

      Ervin Johnson
      Fred Jones
      Shawn Bradley
      Brian Cardinal
      Michael Curry
      Bo Outlaw
      Shane Battier
      Fred Hoiberg
      Eduardo Najera
      Trenton Hassell
      Andrew DeClercq
      Bruce Bowen
      Robert Horry
      Doug Christie

      Most of these guys "need" some defensive recognition that I don't
      grant them. Others (Cardinal, Bradley) receive less credit in my
      system, which shrinks production for low-minutes players.


      Now here are players I've apparently "overvalued" by some 40%,
      relative to you.

      Malik Allen
      Ron Mercer
      Nikoloz Tskitishvili
      Michael Olowokandi
      Eddy Curry
      DeShawn Stevenson
      Rodney White
      Maurice Taylor
      Marcus Fizer
      Zach Randolph
      Chris Mihm
      Dajuan Wagner
      Corliss Williamson
      Mark Jackson
      Predrag Drobnjak
      Glenn Robinson

      Some one-dimensional guys, scorers, and journeymen. No defensive
      stalwarts.

      I think you are on the right track.
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