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Re: Gap with the world

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... Starting points are the margin of victory in the different international games (I looked at Olympics and World Championships). I adjusted the margin of
    Message 1 of 3 , Aug 26, 2004
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "wizardskev" <kevinbroom@r...>
      wrote:
      > This is very interesting. How did you calculate this?
      >

      Starting points are the margin of victory in the different
      international games (I looked at Olympics and World Championships). I
      adjusted the margin of victory according to how much each team slacked
      off, as I discuss in the book. This is significant in the early days,
      where the US Team could have won by much more than they did. Then I
      adjust for the quality of our team, which has varied. This team and
      the 2000 team are the weakest. Finally, for this year's poorly
      constructed team (not having an outside shooter is pretty much
      unforgiveable), there is an additional adjustment, which effectively
      says that this team would be better if it just had an outside threat.
      Just having Voshon Lenard, who is not a great player overall but
      thinks three-pointer, would help. (Note that this adjustment has
      gotten smaller as the 3pt shooting has improved in the last couple
      games.)

      The trend is fairly constant. The rest of the world has been catching
      up pretty steadily, roughly 5 points every two years. I thought it
      might have accelerated in the last couple years as more internationals
      joined the NBA, but I can't really detect it.

      Dean Oliver
      Author, Basketball on Paper
      http://www.basketballonpaper.com
      When basketball teams start playing Moneyball, this is the book
      they'll use!


      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...> wrote:
      > >
      > > Just to throw it out there, I did do an evaluation of the gap between
      > > the rest of the world and NBA basketball. It's not that hard, looking
      > > at the quality of our teams, the average scoring margin, and
      > > accounting for the fact that we didn't need to blow out teams by more
      > > than 50 in 1992. But it ultimately shows that the average NBA team
      > > was about 41 points better than the "rest of the world" in 1992 (The
      > > Dream Team was about 52 points better). That gap is down to about 9
      > > now, 12 years later. Clearly, teams like Spain and Argentina are
      > > around 9 points better than the "rest of the world", too, so there is
      > > good competition. Since we sent over what is not even an average
      > > team, it makes sense that we're having a hard time. (It is more than
      > > an average team if you ignore chemistry. But bad chemistry -- notably
      > > the lack of an outside shooter -- is a pretty big flaw.)
      > >
      > > I'm surprised that the US is favored vs Spain, especially by so much.
      > >
      > > Dean Oliver
      > > Author, Basketball on Paper
      > > http://www.basketballonpaper.com
      > > When basketball teams start playing Moneyball, this is the book
      > > they'll use!
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