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Who is the next Micheal Redd?

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  • Greg
    From last years rookie class, who do you folks feel is the guy who is going to breakout in the next few years but hasnt done so yet? Modest statistics and
    Message 1 of 54 , Aug 11, 2004
      From last years rookie class, who do you folks feel is the guy who is
      going to breakout in the next few years but hasnt done so yet? Modest
      statistics and minutes last year are the criteria...

      My nomination is David West. He is skilled, has a mean streak, and
      played well in limited minutes. Aging PJ Brown is in front of him, and
      should start to give up more and more minutes to him. He rebounds,
      defends decently, and has a polished offensive game from his time at

      If we look at guys who barely ever got out on the court but could have
      an impact in future years (like Redd, who never saw the light of day
      his rookie year), I've been somewhat impressed with Keith McLeod.
      Whether he ends up getting any minutes is anyones guess, but hes my
      deep deep sleeper of the group.
    • Dean Oliver
      ... I will admit that my perception of Frahm and Sweetney is a bit tied to what I saw in summer leagues and I don t yet know how to translate summer league
      Message 54 of 54 , Aug 20, 2004
        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
        <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
        > Personally, I'd take Sweetney without thinking twice about it. I had
        > him rated higher than Frahm even last year, and as I think we
        > discussed, Frahm's numbers change quite a bit if you throw out that
        > 31-point game. Additionally, while neither is much of a defender,
        > Sweetney is certainly the more valuable of the two at that end.
        > Finally, Sweetney is five years younger.
        > Dean mentioned that Frahm may get more playing time this year, which
        > certainly is plausible, but keep in mind his contract isn't
        > guaranteed until he makes the team, which tells me Portland is going
        > to keep shopping for somebody better. Also, they have this misguided
        > idea that Qyntel Woods can play, so he's possibly going to take a lot
        > of minutes that would otherwise go to Frahm.

        I will admit that my perception of Frahm and Sweetney is a bit tied to
        what I saw in summer leagues and I don't yet know how to translate
        summer league stuff. Both looked pretty good, but Frahm surprised me
        more and didn't seem to be taking advantage of the weaker competition
        as much (Sweetney drew tons of fouls in a foul-laden league). (Qyntel
        Woods didn't look that good to me, but most people surrounding me felt
        like he looked good.)

        Number-wise, even if I remove Frahm's 31 pt night, his ability to
        shoot the ball is very impressive. In games where he played 10+
        minutes, he was a positive player, even if you throw out that 31 pt
        night. If I look only at nights where he used 17+% of team
        possessions, he's still a positive player if you throw out the 31 pt
        night. I've had luck picking this kind of player before. Still, I
        need to do some analysis to figure out what's sustainable and sample
        size is small.

        The 31 pt night was quite the anomaly for Frahm. It was quite the
        anomaly for anyone. I can't find many nights like that for players.
        Tony Delk's 53 pt blow up a few years ago is close. Uncle Cliffy had
        one in 2000, too, that was pretty different from what you'd expect.


        Dean Oliver
        Author, Basketball on Paper
        When basketball teams start playing Moneyball, this is the book
        they'll use!

        > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Coach McCormick
        > <highfivehoopschool@y...> wrote:
        > > Frahm also played pro ball in Germany after Gonzaga and improved
        > his strength and overall ability. After one year in Germany, he was
        > so much better than anyone at Gonzaga it was scary. Skinner, Knight,
        > Stepp, Dickau, etc could do nothing with him; he was single-handedly
        > winning pick-up games, a lot like John Stockton used to do when he'd
        > play with the Zags during his summer workouts.
        > >
        > > tajallie@h... wrote:--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Kevin
        > Pelton"
        > > <kpelton08@h...> wrote:
        > > >
        > > > I have four guys who played between 200 and 500 minutes rated as
        > > > a .500 efficiency or better last season -- Richie Frahm, Zendon
        > > > Hamilton, Sweetney, and Raef LaFrentz, in that order. Throw out
        > > > LaFrentz, since that was just because of injury and he's an
        > > > established NBA guy.
        > > >
        > > I recall that Frahm was a pretty decent college player on a very
        > > good Gonzaga team, a team that did much better in the tourny then
        > > the Hoya's with Sweetney (they went to the sweet 16 and the elite 8
        > > his junior and senior years). He was the leading scorer on the
        > elite
        > > 8 team - averaged 17PPG, 4.4Reb and 2.4ass on very effective
        > > shooting (.402 from downtown, 1.43PPSA) and he didn't turn the ball
        > > over or foul at all. He gerenally played very well in the NCAA's
        > > (26,15,17 ppg b-4 getting shut down by UCONN in the elite 8) and he
        > > lit up Memphis for 37 and Purdue for 16 in the preseason. Given his
        > > performance in the college and his strong eff numbers in his
        > limited
        > > chances in the NBA, I would guess based on stats alone he would
        > have
        > > to be right up their with Sweetney. Of course he isn't, but I just
        > > wanted to point out maybe you are also considering some of the
        > other
        > > less tangible performance measures (height, athleticism,
        > > perceptions) in picking Sweentey over Frahm. (Although Sweenty #'s
        > > might be a little better in the NBA, turnovers, blocks and rebs
        > over
        > > the long-ball, it would depend on the team need).
        > >
        > >
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