Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: RE:3 point estimates

Expand Messages
  • Gabe Farkas
    it seems like the big jump occured when they temporarily moved the line in for a season. ... === message truncated === __________________________________ Do
    Message 1 of 3 , Aug 10, 2004
    • 0 Attachment
      it seems like the big jump occured when they
      temporarily moved the line in for a season.


      --- wizardskev <kevinbroom@...> wrote:

      > Three point attempts as a percentage of total FGA
      > has changed over
      > time. Here's the breakdown of 3pt attempts as a
      > percentage of total FGA:
      >
      > 1979-1980 0.031
      > 1980-1981 0.023
      > 1981-1982 0.026
      > 1982-1983 0.025
      > 1983-1984 0.027
      > 1984-1985 0.035
      > 1985-1986 0.038
      > 1986-1987 0.053
      > 1987-1988 0.057
      > 1988-1989 0.074
      > 1989-1990 0.076
      > 1990-1991 0.082
      > 1991-1992 0.087
      > 1992-1993 0.104
      > 1993-1994 0.117
      > 1994-1995 0.188
      > 1995-1996 0.200
      > 1996-1997 0.212
      > 1997-1998 0.159
      > 1998-1999 0.169
      > 1999-2000 0.167
      > 2000-2001 0.170
      > 2001-2002 0.181
      > 2002-2003 0.182
      > 2003-2004 0.187
      >
      > Others may have the position data. My opinion is
      > that the other info
      > won't be worth very much for estimating old-timer
      > 3pt attempts because
      > these data reflect an evolving over time.
      >
      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mark Rhodes"
      > <rhodesm@i...> wrote:
      > > Thank you for reminding me of Rick Mount. I was at
      > Michigan State
      > when Rick
      > > played and I remember the local paper noting that
      > Rick played
      > offense and
      > > defense the same way: "running around the court
      > with one hand in the
      > air".
      > > Likely jealousy on the Spartans part.
      > >
      > > But, back to 3 pointer estimates. I'm new to the
      > group and wondered if
      > > someone had already done a basic analysis of 3
      > pointers:
      > > 1)As a % of total shots taken;
      > > 2)As a % of total shots taken by position;
      > > 3)The parameters of individuals--from 15%-to-30%
      > of total shots for
      > shooting
      > > guards, 10%-20% for shooting forwards, etc.
      > > 4) Any working systematically comparing shooters 2
      > point and 3 point
      > shooting
      > > % by position or frequency of shots
      > >
      > > Once these were establish one could attempt some
      > type of estimate
      > for old
      > > timers based on anecdotal evidence on the players.
      > Has anyone done
      > anything
      > > like that?
      > >
      > >
      > > -----Original Message-----
      > > From: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      > [mailto:APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com]
      > > Sent: Tuesday, August 10, 2004 4:15 AM
      > > To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      > > Subject: [APBR_analysis] Digest Number 844
      > >
      > >
      > > There are 2 messages in this issue.
      > >
      > > Topics in this digest:
      > >
      > > 1. 3 point estimates ofor old timers?
      > > From: "barcah2001" <rhodesm@i...>
      > > 2. Re: 3 point estimates ofor old timers?
      > > From: "Mike G" <msg_53@h...>
      > >
      > >
      > >
      >
      ________________________________________________________________________
      > >
      >
      ________________________________________________________________________
      > >
      > > Message: 1
      > > Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 15:16:50 -0000
      > > From: "barcah2001" <rhodesm@i...>
      > > Subject: 3 point estimates ofor old timers?
      > >
      > > Has anyone worked on projection estimates of 3
      > point shooting/scoring
      > > for old timers: i.e., Bob Davies, Bob Cousy in
      > their historical
      > > rankings of players? This would include the
      > estimated number of 3
      > > point shots and the shooting %.
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      >
      ________________________________________________________________________
      > >
      >
      ________________________________________________________________________
      > >
      > > Message: 2
      > > Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 01:18:40 -0000
      > > From: "Mike G" <msg_53@h...>
      > > Subject: Re: 3 point estimates ofor old timers?
      > >
      > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "barcah2001"
      > <rhodesm@i...>
      > > wrote:
      > > > Has anyone worked on projection estimates of 3
      > point
      > > shooting/scoring
      > > > for old timers: i.e., Bob Davies, Bob Cousy in
      > their historical
      > > > rankings of players? This would include the
      > estimated number of 3
      > > > point shots and the shooting %.
      > >
      > > This is pretty much an impossibility, since film
      > is rare and guys
      > > wouldn't be shooting the 25-footer with the same
      > frequency
      > > regardless of whether it's worth 2 or 3.
      > >
      > > As the game has evolved, we've seen less mid-range
      > shooting.
      > > Partly, it seems, defenses have shut this down;
      > and partly, the 3
      > > has been a more effective weapon, in points per
      > attempt.
      > >
      > > As one who has worked to rank players from all
      > eras, I don't worry
      > > about how guys might have done with the 3. Within
      > any set of rules,
      > > players work with what is available. If you have
      > to get your points
      > > by driving, pulling up, and the occasional 25-foot
      > 2, that's how you
      > > operate.
      > >
      > > At one time, a shooting foul in the penalty was
      > 3-to-make-2. That
      > > gave a big break to mediocre foul-shooters. One
      > could estimate how
      > > many fewer points Wilt would have gotten without
      > the extra shot. (A
      > > 50% FT shooter uses that extra attempt 3/4 of the
      > time.)
      > >
      > > Rick Mount, at Purdue, had phenomenal range.
      > Playing at the same
      > > time as Pete Maravich, he regularly shot from 30'
      > and further, and
      > > his FG% was almost .100 higher than the Pistol's.
      > >
      > > He went to the ABA and was pretty much a bust. He
      > did not shoot the
      > > 3 well at all, even by the standards of 1971-75.
      > >
      > > So if Mount had gone to the NBA and had been a
      > bust, many would
      > > claim he would've mopped up if the 3 were
      > available. But the facts
      > > are the facts: he had the 3, and he couldn't
      > succeed.
      > >
      > > Consequently, I have to conclude that no matter
      > how much anecdotal
      > > evidence you have that a given player "would have"
      > been a terrific 3-
      > > point shooter, you are just guessing. So I'd
      > discount anyone's
      > > speculation of any shooter's "would haves"
      > regarding the 3.
      > >
      > > Good question, though.
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      >
      ________________________________________________________________________
      > >
      >
      ________________________________________________________________________
      >
      === message truncated ===




      __________________________________
      Do you Yahoo!?
      New and Improved Yahoo! Mail - Send 10MB messages!
      http://promotions.yahoo.com/new_mail
    Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.