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Re: the Ruben Patterson effect

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  • John Hollinger
    Actually, this was interesting to look at for me because it shows the minutes distributions 82games is using, which I ve always wondered about. Obviously, the
    Message 1 of 57 , Aug 1, 2004
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      Actually, this was interesting to look at for me because it shows the
      minutes distributions 82games is using, which I've always wondered
      about. Obviously, the key to using any kind of P-Diff methodology is
      the underlying assumption that we the matchups are correct.

      I bring it up b/c there's a couple cases in the chart where this is
      clearly incorrect -- Earl Boykins playing nearly half his minutes at
      off guard, for instance, or Zoran Planinic having 0 minutes at point -
      - with obvious ramifications for the value of their P-Diff numbers.

      Another conundrum is teams like Denver and Indiana who seem intent on
      confusing us because they insist on calling Marcus Camby and Jeff
      Foster their "center" even though Nene and Jermaine O'Neal spent the
      whole game matched up against the opposing center.

      I don't mean this as a knock on Roland & Co. -- putting that together
      was a monumental task and they deserve our thanks for it -- but it
      warrants mentioning that we have to get the matchups part right, or
      our resulting data isn't reflecting reality.




      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Daniel Dickey"
      <danthestatman@h...> wrote:
      > Totally sweet. Now if I could get the pts/100 possessions
      offensively and
      > defensively for a team with/without the player on the court - for
      every
      > player - I'd be set....
      >
      > Dan
      >
      > >From: igor eduardo küpfer <edkupfer@r...>
      > >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      > >To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      > >Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: the Ruben Patterson effect
      > >Date: Sun, 1 Aug 2004 22:12:52 -0400
      > >
      > >Daniel Dickey wrote:
      > >
      > >
      > >[...]
      > >
      > > >
      > > > Hey - if ANYBODY has the raw PER, PER differential, and +/- per
      100
      > > > possessions of all the players last season - please let me
      know. I'd
      > > > really like to get a copy and analyze the data.
      > > >
      > >
      > >PER is a rate stat, standardized for team possessions, and
      normalized
      > >around
      > >a mean of 15. I think mathematicians might call it dimensionless --
      that
      > >is,
      > >a PER of 15.2 doesn't correspond to anything in the real world. It
      just
      > >means the player is slightly above average WRT the things PER
      measures.
      > >
      > > > I could go page by page in Roland's site - but that'd take
      FOREVER.
      > > >
      > >
      > >Yeah, well some of us have a lot a free time and no life. Here you
      go:
      > >
      > >http://members.rogers.com/brothered/junk/04PER.prn
      > >
      > >The PER shown on the page above are the weighted (by minutes
      played)
      > >averages of the PERs-by-position, which are also shown on the page
      above.
      > >My
      > >favourite revealing stat is the weighted position -- i.e.,
      the "average"
      > >position for each player, calculated as the weighted (by minutes
      played)
      > >average of each players "position": 1 = PG, 2 = SG, etc.
      > >
      > >Thanks once again to Roland for providing this data.
      > >
      > >--
      > >ed
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >Yahoo! Groups Links
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      >
      > _________________________________________________________________
      > Don't just search. Find. Check out the new MSN Search!
      > http://search.msn.click-url.com/go/onm00200636ave/direct/01/
    • Daniel Flemming
      ... Hash: SHA1 ... No, this is wrong. It s wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he s older)
      Message 57 of 57 , Aug 5, 2004
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        On Wed, 4 Aug 2004 smckibbi@... wrote:

        > Great idea. Perhaps the criteria for deciding which swingman is guarding who
        > would be the team's overall def points per 100 possessions when the swingman
        > is on the court. The one with the lower pts/100 poss is guarding the better
        > offensive player.

        No, this is wrong. It's wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like
        Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he's older) usually don't
        guard the opposing bench's best player; they take a rest when the other
        side's coach brings his bench players onto the floor.

        You get a guy like Peterson on the Raptors, he's usually on the floor when
        the other side's bench is, and usually not when their starters are. Now,
        he's a good defender, but his stats are going to get enhanced under this
        formula.

        Here's a Modest Proposal: Track the overall offensive production per
        minute or possession of the opposing team's players that a particular
        player defends. Compare that to their offensive production per minute or
        possession while he's on the floor. A negative result means a good
        defender, a positive result means a bad one, zero means average.
        - --
        GnuPG public key available from
        http://homepage.mac.com/danflemming/gnupg_key.html
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