## Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: the Ruben Patterson effect

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• Totally sweet. Now if I could get the pts/100 possessions offensively and defensively for a team with/without the player on the court - for every player - I d
Message 1 of 57 , Aug 1, 2004
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Totally sweet. Now if I could get the pts/100 possessions offensively and
defensively for a team with/without the player on the court - for every
player - I'd be set....

Dan

>From: igor eduardo k�pfer <edkupfer@...>
>To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
>Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: the Ruben Patterson effect
>Date: Sun, 1 Aug 2004 22:12:52 -0400
>
>Daniel Dickey wrote:
>
>
>[...]
>
> >
> > Hey - if ANYBODY has the raw PER, PER differential, and +/- per 100
> > possessions of all the players last season - please let me know. I'd
> > really like to get a copy and analyze the data.
> >
>
>PER is a rate stat, standardized for team possessions, and normalized
>around
>a mean of 15. I think mathematicians might call it dimensionless -- that
>is,
>a PER of 15.2 doesn't correspond to anything in the real world. It just
>means the player is slightly above average WRT the things PER measures.
>
> > I could go page by page in Roland's site - but that'd take FOREVER.
> >
>
>Yeah, well some of us have a lot a free time and no life. Here you go:
>
>http://members.rogers.com/brothered/junk/04PER.prn
>
>The PER shown on the page above are the weighted (by minutes played)
>averages of the PERs-by-position, which are also shown on the page above.
>My
>favourite revealing stat is the weighted position -- i.e., the "average"
>position for each player, calculated as the weighted (by minutes played)
>average of each players "position": 1 = PG, 2 = SG, etc.
>
>Thanks once again to Roland for providing this data.
>
>--
>ed
>
>
>
>
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>

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• ... Hash: SHA1 ... No, this is wrong. It s wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he s older)
Message 57 of 57 , Aug 5, 2004
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On Wed, 4 Aug 2004 smckibbi@... wrote:

> Great idea. Perhaps the criteria for deciding which swingman is guarding who
> would be the team's overall def points per 100 possessions when the swingman
> is on the court. The one with the lower pts/100 poss is guarding the better
> offensive player.

No, this is wrong. It's wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like
Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he's older) usually don't
guard the opposing bench's best player; they take a rest when the other
side's coach brings his bench players onto the floor.

You get a guy like Peterson on the Raptors, he's usually on the floor when
the other side's bench is, and usually not when their starters are. Now,
he's a good defender, but his stats are going to get enhanced under this
formula.

Here's a Modest Proposal: Track the overall offensive production per
minute or possession of the opposing team's players that a particular
player defends. Compare that to their offensive production per minute or
possession while he's on the floor. A negative result means a good
defender, a positive result means a bad one, zero means average.
- --
GnuPG public key available from
http://homepage.mac.com/danflemming/gnupg_key.html
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