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RE: [APBR_analysis] A PER-based Win Value rating

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  • Daniel Dickey
    Hey - do you have the PER differential for all the players in a spreadsheet? I d like to mess with this if you did. I asked somewhere else too I think. Maybe
    Message 1 of 6 , Aug 1, 2004
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      Hey - do you have the PER differential for all the players in a spreadsheet?
      I'd like to mess with this if you did. I asked somewhere else too I
      think.

      Maybe Roland can condense some of this stuff in a spreadsheet for us (PER,
      PER diff, Team offensive/defensive pts per 100 possessions with/without
      player)? I'd even pay him a few $$ for the info - although I am pretty
      cheap ;)

      Dan

      >From: "wimpds" <wimpds@...>
      >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      >Subject: [APBR_analysis] A PER-based Win Value rating
      >Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 23:11:47 -0000
      >
      >I constructed a pretty simple win over replacement level rating
      >based on the PER difference. I pretty casually set the replacement
      >level at -5 (I had in mind a player with 10 per, opponent with the
      >average 15). I also conveniently, but I think not too inaccurately
      >decided that a team of replacement level players would be lucky to
      >win any games. After all, last year the best player from the
      >previous year by PER was on a league worst 21 win team. I genuinely
      >think a team of replacement level players would have a much rougher
      >time in the NBA than in MLB. But this allowed me to divvy up wins
      >based on how number of minutes played * (Perdiff + 5). Those with
      >per difference less than -5 were simply given zero wins.
      >
      >I also looked at salaries a bit. The league average for marginal
      >dollar spent/marginal win is approximately 1.3 million per win. [I
      >simply took the league average payroll - 12*366,000. For an
      >individual I just examine (salary - 366,000)/wins. ]
      >
      >I give here the top 40 players. The Permin is simply a perminute
      >rating based on my win rating. Based on my calculations, among top
      >40 players, only Shaq and Michael Finley were overpaid (paid more
      >than 1.3 mill/win) last year.
      >
      >This was really just done for fun, but I'd like to hear any thoughts
      >people might have.
      >
      >ben
      >
      >Name Team Minutes Salary Wins Permin mill/win
      >Garnett min 81% 28.00 27.8 34.3 0.995
      >Duncan san 63% 12.00 20.3 32.2 0.573
      >O'Neal lal 62% 26.50 18.8 30.3 1.390
      >Kirilen uta 73% 1.00 18.5 25.3 0.034
      >Ming hou 68% 3.50 16.5 24.2 0.190
      >Bryant lal 62% 13.50 16.3 26.2 0.807
      >O'Neal ind 70% 12.00 16.0 22.9 0.725
      >Artest ind 68% 5.20 13.2 19.4 0.366
      >Cassell min 72% 5.30 12.8 17.7 0.386
      >Redd mil 76% 2.90 12.5 16.4 0.203
      >Davis nor 68% 10.10 12.4 18.3 0.783
      >Gasol mem 62% 3.40 12.4 20.0 0.245
      >Marbury tot 81% 13.50 12.3 15.1 1.068
      >McGrady orl 67% 13.30 12.2 18.2 1.060
      >Jeffers njn 79% 1.60 12.1 15.4 0.102
      >Randolp por 77% 1.20 12.1 15.8 0.069
      >Pierce bos 78% 12.00 12.1 15.5 0.965
      >Nowitzk dal 74% 12.00 12.0 16.2 0.968
      >Carter tor 70% 12.00 12.0 17.1 0.973
      >Wallace det 77% 5.50 11.6 15.0 0.443
      >Brand lac 67% 11.00 11.5 17.1 0.926
      >Allen sea 54% 13.50 11.1 20.5 1.184
      >Jones mia 76% 12.30 10.6 13.9 1.127
      >Odom mia 76% 8.10 10.6 13.9 0.731
      >Marion pho 81% 9.70 10.5 13.0 0.886
      >Dampier gsw 60% 7.50 10.5 17.5 0.678
      >Ilgausk cle 64% 13.50 10.3 16.1 1.278
      >Kidd njn 62% 12.20 10.2 16.5 1.159
      >Billups det 70% 5.00 10.0 14.3 0.464
      >Finley dal 70% 13.30 9.9 14.1 1.310
      >Ginobil san 56% 1.50 9.7 17.3 0.117
      >Jamison dal 60% 12.00 9.7 16.1 1.203
      >Boozer cle 65% 0.60 9.5 14.7 0.025
      >James cle 79% 4.00 9.4 11.9 0.387
      >Miller ind 57% 4.50 9.1 16.0 0.452
      >Magloir nor 70% 1.70 9.1 13.1 0.146
      >Posey mem 61% 4.90 8.9 14.6 0.510
      >Anthony den 75% 3.20 8.8 11.8 0.321
      >Martin njn 57% 5.10 8.8 15.4 0.540
      >Maggett lac 66% 5.90 8.7 13.2 0.636
      >
      >

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    • wimpds
      Sorry, I just cut and pasted from the team pages on Roland s site. When I made the spreadsheet with all the win values, I didn t include the per values my
      Message 2 of 6 , Aug 1, 2004
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        Sorry, I just cut and pasted from the team pages on Roland's site.
        When I made the spreadsheet with all the win values, I didn't
        include the per values my ratings are based on. FYI, if you go to
        the team pages and click the righ button on the data, the "export to
        excel" option works quite well. It just takes a while to do it for
        each page.

        ben


        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Daniel Dickey"
        <danthestatman@h...> wrote:
        > Hey - do you have the PER differential for all the players in a
        spreadsheet?
        > I'd like to mess with this if you did. I asked somewhere else
        too I
        > think.
        >
        > Maybe Roland can condense some of this stuff in a spreadsheet for
        us (PER,
        > PER diff, Team offensive/defensive pts per 100 possessions
        with/without
        > player)? I'd even pay him a few $$ for the info - although I am
        pretty
        > cheap ;)
        >
        > Dan
        >
        > >From: "wimpds" <wimpds@y...>
        > >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
        > >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
        > >Subject: [APBR_analysis] A PER-based Win Value rating
        > >Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 23:11:47 -0000
        > >
        > >I constructed a pretty simple win over replacement level rating
        > >based on the PER difference. I pretty casually set the
        replacement
        > >level at -5 (I had in mind a player with 10 per, opponent with the
        > >average 15). I also conveniently, but I think not too
        inaccurately
        > >decided that a team of replacement level players would be lucky to
        > >win any games. After all, last year the best player from the
        > >previous year by PER was on a league worst 21 win team. I
        genuinely
        > >think a team of replacement level players would have a much
        rougher
        > >time in the NBA than in MLB. But this allowed me to divvy up wins
        > >based on how number of minutes played * (Perdiff + 5). Those
        with
        > >per difference less than -5 were simply given zero wins.
        > >
        > >I also looked at salaries a bit. The league average for marginal
        > >dollar spent/marginal win is approximately 1.3 million per win.
        [I
        > >simply took the league average payroll - 12*366,000. For an
        > >individual I just examine (salary - 366,000)/wins. ]
        > >
        > >I give here the top 40 players. The Permin is simply a perminute
        > >rating based on my win rating. Based on my calculations, among
        top
        > >40 players, only Shaq and Michael Finley were overpaid (paid more
        > >than 1.3 mill/win) last year.
        > >
        > >This was really just done for fun, but I'd like to hear any
        thoughts
        > >people might have.
        > >
        > >ben
        > >
        > >Name Team Minutes Salary Wins Permin mill/win
        > >Garnett min 81% 28.00 27.8 34.3 0.995
        > >Duncan san 63% 12.00 20.3 32.2 0.573
        > >O'Neal lal 62% 26.50 18.8 30.3 1.390
        > >Kirilen uta 73% 1.00 18.5 25.3 0.034
        > >Ming hou 68% 3.50 16.5 24.2 0.190
        > >Bryant lal 62% 13.50 16.3 26.2 0.807
        > >O'Neal ind 70% 12.00 16.0 22.9 0.725
        > >Artest ind 68% 5.20 13.2 19.4 0.366
        > >Cassell min 72% 5.30 12.8 17.7 0.386
        > >Redd mil 76% 2.90 12.5 16.4 0.203
        > >Davis nor 68% 10.10 12.4 18.3 0.783
        > >Gasol mem 62% 3.40 12.4 20.0 0.245
        > >Marbury tot 81% 13.50 12.3 15.1 1.068
        > >McGrady orl 67% 13.30 12.2 18.2 1.060
        > >Jeffers njn 79% 1.60 12.1 15.4 0.102
        > >Randolp por 77% 1.20 12.1 15.8 0.069
        > >Pierce bos 78% 12.00 12.1 15.5 0.965
        > >Nowitzk dal 74% 12.00 12.0 16.2 0.968
        > >Carter tor 70% 12.00 12.0 17.1 0.973
        > >Wallace det 77% 5.50 11.6 15.0 0.443
        > >Brand lac 67% 11.00 11.5 17.1 0.926
        > >Allen sea 54% 13.50 11.1 20.5 1.184
        > >Jones mia 76% 12.30 10.6 13.9 1.127
        > >Odom mia 76% 8.10 10.6 13.9 0.731
        > >Marion pho 81% 9.70 10.5 13.0 0.886
        > >Dampier gsw 60% 7.50 10.5 17.5 0.678
        > >Ilgausk cle 64% 13.50 10.3 16.1 1.278
        > >Kidd njn 62% 12.20 10.2 16.5 1.159
        > >Billups det 70% 5.00 10.0 14.3 0.464
        > >Finley dal 70% 13.30 9.9 14.1 1.310
        > >Ginobil san 56% 1.50 9.7 17.3 0.117
        > >Jamison dal 60% 12.00 9.7 16.1 1.203
        > >Boozer cle 65% 0.60 9.5 14.7 0.025
        > >James cle 79% 4.00 9.4 11.9 0.387
        > >Miller ind 57% 4.50 9.1 16.0 0.452
        > >Magloir nor 70% 1.70 9.1 13.1 0.146
        > >Posey mem 61% 4.90 8.9 14.6 0.510
        > >Anthony den 75% 3.20 8.8 11.8 0.321
        > >Martin njn 57% 5.10 8.8 15.4 0.540
        > >Maggett lac 66% 5.90 8.7 13.2 0.636
        > >
        > >
        >
        > _________________________________________________________________
        > Overwhelmed by debt? Find out how to `Dig Yourself Out of Debt'
        from MSN
        > Money. http://special.msn.com/money/0407debt.armx
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