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RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: the Ruben Patterson effect

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  • Daniel Dickey
    ... I agree that PER has it s limitations for rankings second tier players (two players with PERs of 14 could be VERY different in their true value to their
    Message 1 of 57 , Aug 1, 2004
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      >From: tajallie@...
      >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      >Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: the Ruben Patterson effect
      >Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 20:22:59 -0000

      >Until PER and PER diference finds a good way to recognize these
      >factets, I think you will continue to have trouble applying PER Dif
      >to second tier individual players. With the best players it works
      >very well since thier role generally don't change.

      I agree that PER has it's limitations for rankings second tier players (two
      players with PERs of 14 could be VERY different in their true value to their
      eam). I believe PER differential is better for second tier players - but
      also is far from the be all end all of ranking. I still can't get over the
      fact that Michael Redd has such a good PER and PER differential last season
      - but his team played SO much more poorly when he was on the court.

      Hey - if ANYBODY has the raw PER, PER differential, and +/- per 100
      possessions of all the players last season - please let me know. I'd really
      like to get a copy and analyze the data.

      I could go page by page in Roland's site - but that'd take FOREVER.

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    • Daniel Flemming
      ... Hash: SHA1 ... No, this is wrong. It s wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he s older)
      Message 57 of 57 , Aug 5, 2004
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        On Wed, 4 Aug 2004 smckibbi@... wrote:

        > Great idea. Perhaps the criteria for deciding which swingman is guarding who
        > would be the team's overall def points per 100 possessions when the swingman
        > is on the court. The one with the lower pts/100 poss is guarding the better
        > offensive player.

        No, this is wrong. It's wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like
        Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he's older) usually don't
        guard the opposing bench's best player; they take a rest when the other
        side's coach brings his bench players onto the floor.

        You get a guy like Peterson on the Raptors, he's usually on the floor when
        the other side's bench is, and usually not when their starters are. Now,
        he's a good defender, but his stats are going to get enhanced under this
        formula.

        Here's a Modest Proposal: Track the overall offensive production per
        minute or possession of the opposing team's players that a particular
        player defends. Compare that to their offensive production per minute or
        possession while he's on the floor. A negative result means a good
        defender, a positive result means a bad one, zero means average.
        - --
        GnuPG public key available from
        http://homepage.mac.com/danflemming/gnupg_key.html
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