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RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: the Ruben Patterson effect

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  • Daniel Dickey
    ... Well - the fact that he is much more productive overall (PER) AND the Spurs are a much better team when he is on the court I do think shows he s more
    Message 1 of 57 , Aug 1, 2004
      >From: "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@...>
      >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      >Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: the Ruben Patterson effect
      >Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 16:28:20 -0000

      >This is a key reason I'm careful not to take the opponent PER too
      >literally. It doesn't necessarily imply anything about Bowen's
      >relative value to Turkoglu, although I'll point out that just saying
      >Turkoglu is more productive overall doesn't necessarily make him more
      >valuable to the Spurs

      Well - the fact that he is much more productive overall (PER) AND the Spurs
      are a much better team when he is on the court I do think shows he's more
      valuable - at least last season.

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    • Daniel Flemming
      ... Hash: SHA1 ... No, this is wrong. It s wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he s older)
      Message 57 of 57 , Aug 5, 2004
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        On Wed, 4 Aug 2004 smckibbi@... wrote:

        > Great idea. Perhaps the criteria for deciding which swingman is guarding who
        > would be the team's overall def points per 100 possessions when the swingman
        > is on the court. The one with the lower pts/100 poss is guarding the better
        > offensive player.

        No, this is wrong. It's wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like
        Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he's older) usually don't
        guard the opposing bench's best player; they take a rest when the other
        side's coach brings his bench players onto the floor.

        You get a guy like Peterson on the Raptors, he's usually on the floor when
        the other side's bench is, and usually not when their starters are. Now,
        he's a good defender, but his stats are going to get enhanced under this
        formula.

        Here's a Modest Proposal: Track the overall offensive production per
        minute or possession of the opposing team's players that a particular
        player defends. Compare that to their offensive production per minute or
        possession while he's on the floor. A negative result means a good
        defender, a positive result means a bad one, zero means average.
        - --
        GnuPG public key available from
        http://homepage.mac.com/danflemming/gnupg_key.html
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