RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: the Ruben Patterson effect
>From: "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@...>Well - the fact that he is much more productive overall (PER) AND the Spurs
>Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: the Ruben Patterson effect
>Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 16:28:20 -0000
>This is a key reason I'm careful not to take the opponent PER too
>literally. It doesn't necessarily imply anything about Bowen's
>relative value to Turkoglu, although I'll point out that just saying
>Turkoglu is more productive overall doesn't necessarily make him more
>valuable to the Spurs
are a much better team when he is on the court I do think shows he's more
valuable - at least last season.
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On Wed, 4 Aug 2004 smckibbi@... wrote:
> Great idea. Perhaps the criteria for deciding which swingman is guarding who
> would be the team's overall def points per 100 possessions when the swingman
> is on the court. The one with the lower pts/100 poss is guarding the better
> offensive player.
No, this is wrong. It's wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like
Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he's older) usually don't
guard the opposing bench's best player; they take a rest when the other
side's coach brings his bench players onto the floor.
You get a guy like Peterson on the Raptors, he's usually on the floor when
the other side's bench is, and usually not when their starters are. Now,
he's a good defender, but his stats are going to get enhanced under this
Here's a Modest Proposal: Track the overall offensive production per
minute or possession of the opposing team's players that a particular
player defends. Compare that to their offensive production per minute or
possession while he's on the floor. A negative result means a good
defender, a positive result means a bad one, zero means average.
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