RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: the Ruben Patterson effect
>From: "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@...>Well, Turkoglu may have had an average PER this last season - but he did
>Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: the Ruben Patterson effect
>Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 07:16:34 -0000
>I'm not comfortable saying Bruce Bowen and Hedo Turkoglu are elite
>NBA players because that's how WinVAL rated them this season,
>because of the discrepancy with the other available evidence.
have a good PER differential AND his team was a VERY positive +9.2 points
per 100 possessions better when he was on the court than when he was off.
So, he had some real value last season. I think those two latter things are
San Antonio was a +1.6 points per 100 possessions better when he was on the
court - but he did have a poor PER differential and a horrible overall PER.
I believe in a lineup with guys that can score (at least one scoring
superstar) - his defense can help and he can have a neutral or even a slight
overall positive effect. I believe in a lineup where there are no players
that can score fairly efficiently with high possessions - then he'd be a
negative I'm sure. So have him in lineups with Duncan, Shaq, Kobe, Mcgrady,
Iverson, garnett, etc - he'll do fine (in terms of helping the team IMO).
Have him in lineups with no high possession/scoring guys - they'll be
I'd add Michael Redd here too - in a different way. Most tendex type
systems (including PER) have him rated quite well. PER differential has him
rated well too (around a +6.0). However - Milwaukee was 1.5 points WORSE
per 100 possessions offensively, and a whopping 9.1 points worse per 100
At least Brent Barry does well in PER, PER differential, AND +/- per 100
possessions in relation to his team. If you did well in all three of these
things in a season - you had a good season, no doubt.
I'd add WinVal to this too - but it's so complicated I don't fully
understand how it's derived. I'm guessing it combines PER and +/- fairly
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On Wed, 4 Aug 2004 smckibbi@... wrote:
> Great idea. Perhaps the criteria for deciding which swingman is guarding who
> would be the team's overall def points per 100 possessions when the swingman
> is on the court. The one with the lower pts/100 poss is guarding the better
> offensive player.
No, this is wrong. It's wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like
Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he's older) usually don't
guard the opposing bench's best player; they take a rest when the other
side's coach brings his bench players onto the floor.
You get a guy like Peterson on the Raptors, he's usually on the floor when
the other side's bench is, and usually not when their starters are. Now,
he's a good defender, but his stats are going to get enhanced under this
Here's a Modest Proposal: Track the overall offensive production per
minute or possession of the opposing team's players that a particular
player defends. Compare that to their offensive production per minute or
possession while he's on the floor. A negative result means a good
defender, a positive result means a bad one, zero means average.
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