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Re: the Ruben Patterson effect

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  • Mike G
    ... It s age; and the injuries that come with the minutes. You may safely predict another season of decline. ... ?? Knew? With or without Coach X, Iverson is
    Message 1 of 57 , Aug 1, 2004
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
      wrote:
      >... AI's 2004 season was a bit worse than his 2003 season, which
      > was worse than his 2001 season. Why? Was that predictable? Is it
      > age? Is it coaching? Is it injuries (the guy doesn't seem to show
      > much pain)?

      It's age; and the injuries that come with the minutes. You may
      safely predict another season of decline.


      >... I knew AI would do worse once Larry Brown left, ...

      ??

      Knew?

      With or without Coach X, Iverson is past his prime, and will decline
      most (if not all years) henceforth.


      >
      > This is relevant for Q, too. His first 2 seasons in the league
      were
      > much better than his last two.

      His first 2 years, his shooting % was better. But his last 2 years
      have produced more rebounds and assists.

      Q Rich's 2004 was much better than 2003 or his rookie year.


      > ...I've been thinking it's
      > injury-related, but some have suggested that it's related to
      playing
      > with Corey Maggette. There are reasons to doubt the Maggette
      > rationale, but if it is true, he should be better in Phoenix.

      The Clippers look like a(nother) team without a true center and
      subsequently, have a lot of shuffling positions.

      QRich (listed at SG) is 2nd on the team in rebounds. The other SG
      (Jaric) led the team in assists.

      So going to a team where his position is actually defined would
      likely help. (To me, his stats look like a SF -- same as Maggette,
      Simmons, and Barnes, on the Clipps.)

      >
      > Finally, Bob mentioned that McGrady's 2003 season was about as
      good as
      > some of MJs best.

      Did Bob say that? Jordan had several seasons better. It looks more
      like an average Jordan year, to me.


      > I can see why he says that, but one big thing would
      > keep me from agreeing -- consistency. In MJ's top seasons, he was
      > dominant every night. My "game-by-game win-loss record" for MJ was
      > typically 60+ wins and about 20 losses, implying that he had a good
      > night about 3/4ths of the time. McGrady, on the other hand, had
      some
      > monster nights that made his season total look good, but also had
      some
      > mediocre nights, for a similar total of 47-28 that season.

      Does this relative inconsistency hurt a mediocre team as much as it
      would an elite team? Would it actually be a Good quality with a bad
      team?


      ...[BobC:]
      > > ... play tim duncan 40
      > min/g on
      > > the spurs and they finish 18-20 games better per 82 game season
      than
      > if duncan
      > > was replaced by the likes of antoine walker, walter mccarty, or
      > clifford
      > > robinson.

      Walker is interchangeable with McCarty? Wow.

      Mark Cuban (on his blog) gives a glowing review of Walker's year in
      Dallas. But then, he is shopping him . . .
    • Daniel Flemming
      ... Hash: SHA1 ... No, this is wrong. It s wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he s older)
      Message 57 of 57 , Aug 5, 2004
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        On Wed, 4 Aug 2004 smckibbi@... wrote:

        > Great idea. Perhaps the criteria for deciding which swingman is guarding who
        > would be the team's overall def points per 100 possessions when the swingman
        > is on the court. The one with the lower pts/100 poss is guarding the better
        > offensive player.

        No, this is wrong. It's wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like
        Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he's older) usually don't
        guard the opposing bench's best player; they take a rest when the other
        side's coach brings his bench players onto the floor.

        You get a guy like Peterson on the Raptors, he's usually on the floor when
        the other side's bench is, and usually not when their starters are. Now,
        he's a good defender, but his stats are going to get enhanced under this
        formula.

        Here's a Modest Proposal: Track the overall offensive production per
        minute or possession of the opposing team's players that a particular
        player defends. Compare that to their offensive production per minute or
        possession while he's on the floor. A negative result means a good
        defender, a positive result means a bad one, zero means average.
        - --
        GnuPG public key available from
        http://homepage.mac.com/danflemming/gnupg_key.html
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