- I constructed a pretty simple win over replacement level rating

based on the PER difference. I pretty casually set the replacement

level at -5 (I had in mind a player with 10 per, opponent with the

average 15). I also conveniently, but I think not too inaccurately

decided that a team of replacement level players would be lucky to

win any games. After all, last year the best player from the

previous year by PER was on a league worst 21 win team. I genuinely

think a team of replacement level players would have a much rougher

time in the NBA than in MLB. But this allowed me to divvy up wins

based on how number of minutes played * (Perdiff + 5). Those with

per difference less than -5 were simply given zero wins.

I also looked at salaries a bit. The league average for marginal

dollar spent/marginal win is approximately 1.3 million per win. [I

simply took the league average payroll - 12*366,000. For an

individual I just examine (salary - 366,000)/wins. ]

I give here the top 40 players. The Permin is simply a perminute

rating based on my win rating. Based on my calculations, among top

40 players, only Shaq and Michael Finley were overpaid (paid more

than 1.3 mill/win) last year.

This was really just done for fun, but I'd like to hear any thoughts

people might have.

ben

Name Team Minutes Salary Wins Permin mill/win

Garnett min 81% 28.00 27.8 34.3 0.995

Duncan san 63% 12.00 20.3 32.2 0.573

O'Neal lal 62% 26.50 18.8 30.3 1.390

Kirilen uta 73% 1.00 18.5 25.3 0.034

Ming hou 68% 3.50 16.5 24.2 0.190

Bryant lal 62% 13.50 16.3 26.2 0.807

O'Neal ind 70% 12.00 16.0 22.9 0.725

Artest ind 68% 5.20 13.2 19.4 0.366

Cassell min 72% 5.30 12.8 17.7 0.386

Redd mil 76% 2.90 12.5 16.4 0.203

Davis nor 68% 10.10 12.4 18.3 0.783

Gasol mem 62% 3.40 12.4 20.0 0.245

Marbury tot 81% 13.50 12.3 15.1 1.068

McGrady orl 67% 13.30 12.2 18.2 1.060

Jeffers njn 79% 1.60 12.1 15.4 0.102

Randolp por 77% 1.20 12.1 15.8 0.069

Pierce bos 78% 12.00 12.1 15.5 0.965

Nowitzk dal 74% 12.00 12.0 16.2 0.968

Carter tor 70% 12.00 12.0 17.1 0.973

Wallace det 77% 5.50 11.6 15.0 0.443

Brand lac 67% 11.00 11.5 17.1 0.926

Allen sea 54% 13.50 11.1 20.5 1.184

Jones mia 76% 12.30 10.6 13.9 1.127

Odom mia 76% 8.10 10.6 13.9 0.731

Marion pho 81% 9.70 10.5 13.0 0.886

Dampier gsw 60% 7.50 10.5 17.5 0.678

Ilgausk cle 64% 13.50 10.3 16.1 1.278

Kidd njn 62% 12.20 10.2 16.5 1.159

Billups det 70% 5.00 10.0 14.3 0.464

Finley dal 70% 13.30 9.9 14.1 1.310

Ginobil san 56% 1.50 9.7 17.3 0.117

Jamison dal 60% 12.00 9.7 16.1 1.203

Boozer cle 65% 0.60 9.5 14.7 0.025

James cle 79% 4.00 9.4 11.9 0.387

Miller ind 57% 4.50 9.1 16.0 0.452

Magloir nor 70% 1.70 9.1 13.1 0.146

Posey mem 61% 4.90 8.9 14.6 0.510

Anthony den 75% 3.20 8.8 11.8 0.321

Martin njn 57% 5.10 8.8 15.4 0.540

Maggett lac 66% 5.90 8.7 13.2 0.636 - Sorry, I just cut and pasted from the team pages on Roland's site.

When I made the spreadsheet with all the win values, I didn't

include the per values my ratings are based on. FYI, if you go to

the team pages and click the righ button on the data, the "export to

excel" option works quite well. It just takes a while to do it for

each page.

ben

--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Daniel Dickey"

<danthestatman@h...> wrote:> Hey - do you have the PER differential for all the players in a

spreadsheet?

> I'd like to mess with this if you did. I asked somewhere else

too I

> think.

us (PER,

>

> Maybe Roland can condense some of this stuff in a spreadsheet for

> PER diff, Team offensive/defensive pts per 100 possessions

with/without

> player)? I'd even pay him a few $$ for the info - although I am

pretty

> cheap ;)

replacement

>

> Dan

>

> >From: "wimpds" <wimpds@y...>

> >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com

> >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com

> >Subject: [APBR_analysis] A PER-based Win Value rating

> >Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 23:11:47 -0000

> >

> >I constructed a pretty simple win over replacement level rating

> >based on the PER difference. I pretty casually set the

> >level at -5 (I had in mind a player with 10 per, opponent with the

inaccurately

> >average 15). I also conveniently, but I think not too

> >decided that a team of replacement level players would be lucky to

genuinely

> >win any games. After all, last year the best player from the

> >previous year by PER was on a league worst 21 win team. I

> >think a team of replacement level players would have a much

rougher

> >time in the NBA than in MLB. But this allowed me to divvy up wins

with

> >based on how number of minutes played * (Perdiff + 5). Those

> >per difference less than -5 were simply given zero wins.

[I

> >

> >I also looked at salaries a bit. The league average for marginal

> >dollar spent/marginal win is approximately 1.3 million per win.

> >simply took the league average payroll - 12*366,000. For an

top

> >individual I just examine (salary - 366,000)/wins. ]

> >

> >I give here the top 40 players. The Permin is simply a perminute

> >rating based on my win rating. Based on my calculations, among

> >40 players, only Shaq and Michael Finley were overpaid (paid more

thoughts

> >than 1.3 mill/win) last year.

> >

> >This was really just done for fun, but I'd like to hear any

> >people might have.

from MSN

> >

> >ben

> >

> >Name Team Minutes Salary Wins Permin mill/win

> >Garnett min 81% 28.00 27.8 34.3 0.995

> >Duncan san 63% 12.00 20.3 32.2 0.573

> >O'Neal lal 62% 26.50 18.8 30.3 1.390

> >Kirilen uta 73% 1.00 18.5 25.3 0.034

> >Ming hou 68% 3.50 16.5 24.2 0.190

> >Bryant lal 62% 13.50 16.3 26.2 0.807

> >O'Neal ind 70% 12.00 16.0 22.9 0.725

> >Artest ind 68% 5.20 13.2 19.4 0.366

> >Cassell min 72% 5.30 12.8 17.7 0.386

> >Redd mil 76% 2.90 12.5 16.4 0.203

> >Davis nor 68% 10.10 12.4 18.3 0.783

> >Gasol mem 62% 3.40 12.4 20.0 0.245

> >Marbury tot 81% 13.50 12.3 15.1 1.068

> >McGrady orl 67% 13.30 12.2 18.2 1.060

> >Jeffers njn 79% 1.60 12.1 15.4 0.102

> >Randolp por 77% 1.20 12.1 15.8 0.069

> >Pierce bos 78% 12.00 12.1 15.5 0.965

> >Nowitzk dal 74% 12.00 12.0 16.2 0.968

> >Carter tor 70% 12.00 12.0 17.1 0.973

> >Wallace det 77% 5.50 11.6 15.0 0.443

> >Brand lac 67% 11.00 11.5 17.1 0.926

> >Allen sea 54% 13.50 11.1 20.5 1.184

> >Jones mia 76% 12.30 10.6 13.9 1.127

> >Odom mia 76% 8.10 10.6 13.9 0.731

> >Marion pho 81% 9.70 10.5 13.0 0.886

> >Dampier gsw 60% 7.50 10.5 17.5 0.678

> >Ilgausk cle 64% 13.50 10.3 16.1 1.278

> >Kidd njn 62% 12.20 10.2 16.5 1.159

> >Billups det 70% 5.00 10.0 14.3 0.464

> >Finley dal 70% 13.30 9.9 14.1 1.310

> >Ginobil san 56% 1.50 9.7 17.3 0.117

> >Jamison dal 60% 12.00 9.7 16.1 1.203

> >Boozer cle 65% 0.60 9.5 14.7 0.025

> >James cle 79% 4.00 9.4 11.9 0.387

> >Miller ind 57% 4.50 9.1 16.0 0.452

> >Magloir nor 70% 1.70 9.1 13.1 0.146

> >Posey mem 61% 4.90 8.9 14.6 0.510

> >Anthony den 75% 3.20 8.8 11.8 0.321

> >Martin njn 57% 5.10 8.8 15.4 0.540

> >Maggett lac 66% 5.90 8.7 13.2 0.636

> >

> >

>

> _________________________________________________________________

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