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A PER-based Win Value rating

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  • wimpds
    I constructed a pretty simple win over replacement level rating based on the PER difference. I pretty casually set the replacement level at -5 (I had in mind
    Message 1 of 6 , Jul 28, 2004
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      I constructed a pretty simple win over replacement level rating
      based on the PER difference. I pretty casually set the replacement
      level at -5 (I had in mind a player with 10 per, opponent with the
      average 15). I also conveniently, but I think not too inaccurately
      decided that a team of replacement level players would be lucky to
      win any games. After all, last year the best player from the
      previous year by PER was on a league worst 21 win team. I genuinely
      think a team of replacement level players would have a much rougher
      time in the NBA than in MLB. But this allowed me to divvy up wins
      based on how number of minutes played * (Perdiff + 5). Those with
      per difference less than -5 were simply given zero wins.

      I also looked at salaries a bit. The league average for marginal
      dollar spent/marginal win is approximately 1.3 million per win. [I
      simply took the league average payroll - 12*366,000. For an
      individual I just examine (salary - 366,000)/wins. ]

      I give here the top 40 players. The Permin is simply a perminute
      rating based on my win rating. Based on my calculations, among top
      40 players, only Shaq and Michael Finley were overpaid (paid more
      than 1.3 mill/win) last year.

      This was really just done for fun, but I'd like to hear any thoughts
      people might have.

      ben

      Name Team Minutes Salary Wins Permin mill/win
      Garnett min 81% 28.00 27.8 34.3 0.995
      Duncan san 63% 12.00 20.3 32.2 0.573
      O'Neal lal 62% 26.50 18.8 30.3 1.390
      Kirilen uta 73% 1.00 18.5 25.3 0.034
      Ming hou 68% 3.50 16.5 24.2 0.190
      Bryant lal 62% 13.50 16.3 26.2 0.807
      O'Neal ind 70% 12.00 16.0 22.9 0.725
      Artest ind 68% 5.20 13.2 19.4 0.366
      Cassell min 72% 5.30 12.8 17.7 0.386
      Redd mil 76% 2.90 12.5 16.4 0.203
      Davis nor 68% 10.10 12.4 18.3 0.783
      Gasol mem 62% 3.40 12.4 20.0 0.245
      Marbury tot 81% 13.50 12.3 15.1 1.068
      McGrady orl 67% 13.30 12.2 18.2 1.060
      Jeffers njn 79% 1.60 12.1 15.4 0.102
      Randolp por 77% 1.20 12.1 15.8 0.069
      Pierce bos 78% 12.00 12.1 15.5 0.965
      Nowitzk dal 74% 12.00 12.0 16.2 0.968
      Carter tor 70% 12.00 12.0 17.1 0.973
      Wallace det 77% 5.50 11.6 15.0 0.443
      Brand lac 67% 11.00 11.5 17.1 0.926
      Allen sea 54% 13.50 11.1 20.5 1.184
      Jones mia 76% 12.30 10.6 13.9 1.127
      Odom mia 76% 8.10 10.6 13.9 0.731
      Marion pho 81% 9.70 10.5 13.0 0.886
      Dampier gsw 60% 7.50 10.5 17.5 0.678
      Ilgausk cle 64% 13.50 10.3 16.1 1.278
      Kidd njn 62% 12.20 10.2 16.5 1.159
      Billups det 70% 5.00 10.0 14.3 0.464
      Finley dal 70% 13.30 9.9 14.1 1.310
      Ginobil san 56% 1.50 9.7 17.3 0.117
      Jamison dal 60% 12.00 9.7 16.1 1.203
      Boozer cle 65% 0.60 9.5 14.7 0.025
      James cle 79% 4.00 9.4 11.9 0.387
      Miller ind 57% 4.50 9.1 16.0 0.452
      Magloir nor 70% 1.70 9.1 13.1 0.146
      Posey mem 61% 4.90 8.9 14.6 0.510
      Anthony den 75% 3.20 8.8 11.8 0.321
      Martin njn 57% 5.10 8.8 15.4 0.540
      Maggett lac 66% 5.90 8.7 13.2 0.636
    • dlirag@hotmail.com
      The Wallace from Detroit is Ben Wallace, right?
      Message 2 of 6 , Jul 29, 2004
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        The Wallace from Detroit is Ben Wallace, right?

        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "wimpds" <wimpds@y...> wrote:
        >
        > Name Team Minutes Salary Wins Permin mill/win

        > Wallace det 77% 5.50 11.6 15.0 0.443
        > Brand lac 67% 11.00 11.5 17.1 0.926
        > Allen sea 54% 13.50 11.1 20.5 1.184
        > Jones mia 76% 12.30 10.6 13.9 1.127
        > Odom mia 76% 8.10 10.6 13.9 0.731
        > Marion pho 81% 9.70 10.5 13.0 0.886
        > Dampier gsw 60% 7.50 10.5 17.5 0.678
        > Ilgausk cle 64% 13.50 10.3 16.1 1.278
        > Kidd njn 62% 12.20 10.2 16.5 1.159
        > Billups det 70% 5.00 10.0 14.3 0.464
        > Finley dal 70% 13.30 9.9 14.1 1.310
        > Ginobil san 56% 1.50 9.7 17.3 0.117
        > Jamison dal 60% 12.00 9.7 16.1 1.203
        > Boozer cle 65% 0.60 9.5 14.7 0.025
        > James cle 79% 4.00 9.4 11.9 0.387
        > Miller ind 57% 4.50 9.1 16.0 0.452
        > Magloir nor 70% 1.70 9.1 13.1 0.146
        > Posey mem 61% 4.90 8.9 14.6 0.510
        > Anthony den 75% 3.20 8.8 11.8 0.321
        > Martin njn 57% 5.10 8.8 15.4 0.540
        > Maggett lac 66% 5.90 8.7 13.2 0.636
      • wimpds
        Yes, that s correct. Though Rasheed s rating at Detroit was quite high, his complete season wasn t enought to crack the top 40. Here s Rasheed s line: Name
        Message 3 of 6 , Jul 30, 2004
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          Yes, that's correct. Though Rasheed's rating at Detroit was quite
          high, his complete season wasn't enought to crack the top 40.

          Here's Rasheed's line:

          Name Team Minutes Salary Wins Perminute mill/win
          WallaceR tot 60% 18.00 7.3 13.7 2.423

          ben


          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, dlirag@h... wrote:
          > The Wallace from Detroit is Ben Wallace, right?
          >
          > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "wimpds" <wimpds@y...> wrote:
          > >
          > > Name Team Minutes Salary Wins Permin mill/win
          >
          > > Wallace det 77% 5.50 11.6 15.0 0.443
          > > Brand lac 67% 11.00 11.5 17.1 0.926
          > > Allen sea 54% 13.50 11.1 20.5 1.184
          > > Jones mia 76% 12.30 10.6 13.9 1.127
          > > Odom mia 76% 8.10 10.6 13.9 0.731
          > > Marion pho 81% 9.70 10.5 13.0 0.886
          > > Dampier gsw 60% 7.50 10.5 17.5 0.678
          > > Ilgausk cle 64% 13.50 10.3 16.1 1.278
          > > Kidd njn 62% 12.20 10.2 16.5 1.159
          > > Billups det 70% 5.00 10.0 14.3 0.464
          > > Finley dal 70% 13.30 9.9 14.1 1.310
          > > Ginobil san 56% 1.50 9.7 17.3 0.117
          > > Jamison dal 60% 12.00 9.7 16.1 1.203
          > > Boozer cle 65% 0.60 9.5 14.7 0.025
          > > James cle 79% 4.00 9.4 11.9 0.387
          > > Miller ind 57% 4.50 9.1 16.0 0.452
          > > Magloir nor 70% 1.70 9.1 13.1 0.146
          > > Posey mem 61% 4.90 8.9 14.6 0.510
          > > Anthony den 75% 3.20 8.8 11.8 0.321
          > > Martin njn 57% 5.10 8.8 15.4 0.540
          > > Maggett lac 66% 5.90 8.7 13.2 0.636
        • mrintp2000
          Good stuff, one of the many benefits of the PER-diff is that you can quantify the value of a superstar, as you have done here. ... genuinely ... thoughts
          Message 4 of 6 , Jul 31, 2004
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            Good stuff, one of the many benefits of the PER-diff is that you can
            quantify the value of a superstar, as you have done here.

            -- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "wimpds" <wimpds@y...> wrote:
            > I constructed a pretty simple win over replacement level rating
            > based on the PER difference. I pretty casually set the replacement
            > level at -5 (I had in mind a player with 10 per, opponent with the
            > average 15). I also conveniently, but I think not too inaccurately
            > decided that a team of replacement level players would be lucky to
            > win any games. After all, last year the best player from the
            > previous year by PER was on a league worst 21 win team. I
            genuinely
            > think a team of replacement level players would have a much rougher
            > time in the NBA than in MLB. But this allowed me to divvy up wins
            > based on how number of minutes played * (Perdiff + 5). Those with
            > per difference less than -5 were simply given zero wins.
            >
            > I also looked at salaries a bit. The league average for marginal
            > dollar spent/marginal win is approximately 1.3 million per win. [I
            > simply took the league average payroll - 12*366,000. For an
            > individual I just examine (salary - 366,000)/wins. ]
            >
            > I give here the top 40 players. The Permin is simply a perminute
            > rating based on my win rating. Based on my calculations, among top
            > 40 players, only Shaq and Michael Finley were overpaid (paid more
            > than 1.3 mill/win) last year.
            >
            > This was really just done for fun, but I'd like to hear any
            thoughts
            > people might have.
            >
            > ben
            >
            > Name Team Minutes Salary Wins Permin mill/win
            > Garnett min 81% 28.00 27.8 34.3 0.995
            > Duncan san 63% 12.00 20.3 32.2 0.573
            > O'Neal lal 62% 26.50 18.8 30.3 1.390
            > Kirilen uta 73% 1.00 18.5 25.3 0.034
            > Ming hou 68% 3.50 16.5 24.2 0.190
            > Bryant lal 62% 13.50 16.3 26.2 0.807
            > O'Neal ind 70% 12.00 16.0 22.9 0.725
            > Artest ind 68% 5.20 13.2 19.4 0.366
            > Cassell min 72% 5.30 12.8 17.7 0.386
            > Redd mil 76% 2.90 12.5 16.4 0.203
            > Davis nor 68% 10.10 12.4 18.3 0.783
            > Gasol mem 62% 3.40 12.4 20.0 0.245
            > Marbury tot 81% 13.50 12.3 15.1 1.068
            > McGrady orl 67% 13.30 12.2 18.2 1.060
            > Jeffers njn 79% 1.60 12.1 15.4 0.102
            > Randolp por 77% 1.20 12.1 15.8 0.069
            > Pierce bos 78% 12.00 12.1 15.5 0.965
            > Nowitzk dal 74% 12.00 12.0 16.2 0.968
            > Carter tor 70% 12.00 12.0 17.1 0.973
            > Wallace det 77% 5.50 11.6 15.0 0.443
            > Brand lac 67% 11.00 11.5 17.1 0.926
            > Allen sea 54% 13.50 11.1 20.5 1.184
            > Jones mia 76% 12.30 10.6 13.9 1.127
            > Odom mia 76% 8.10 10.6 13.9 0.731
            > Marion pho 81% 9.70 10.5 13.0 0.886
            > Dampier gsw 60% 7.50 10.5 17.5 0.678
            > Ilgausk cle 64% 13.50 10.3 16.1 1.278
            > Kidd njn 62% 12.20 10.2 16.5 1.159
            > Billups det 70% 5.00 10.0 14.3 0.464
            > Finley dal 70% 13.30 9.9 14.1 1.310
            > Ginobil san 56% 1.50 9.7 17.3 0.117
            > Jamison dal 60% 12.00 9.7 16.1 1.203
            > Boozer cle 65% 0.60 9.5 14.7 0.025
            > James cle 79% 4.00 9.4 11.9 0.387
            > Miller ind 57% 4.50 9.1 16.0 0.452
            > Magloir nor 70% 1.70 9.1 13.1 0.146
            > Posey mem 61% 4.90 8.9 14.6 0.510
            > Anthony den 75% 3.20 8.8 11.8 0.321
            > Martin njn 57% 5.10 8.8 15.4 0.540
            > Maggett lac 66% 5.90 8.7 13.2 0.636
          • Daniel Dickey
            Hey - do you have the PER differential for all the players in a spreadsheet? I d like to mess with this if you did. I asked somewhere else too I think. Maybe
            Message 5 of 6 , Aug 1, 2004
            • 0 Attachment
              Hey - do you have the PER differential for all the players in a spreadsheet?
              I'd like to mess with this if you did. I asked somewhere else too I
              think.

              Maybe Roland can condense some of this stuff in a spreadsheet for us (PER,
              PER diff, Team offensive/defensive pts per 100 possessions with/without
              player)? I'd even pay him a few $$ for the info - although I am pretty
              cheap ;)

              Dan

              >From: "wimpds" <wimpds@...>
              >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
              >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
              >Subject: [APBR_analysis] A PER-based Win Value rating
              >Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 23:11:47 -0000
              >
              >I constructed a pretty simple win over replacement level rating
              >based on the PER difference. I pretty casually set the replacement
              >level at -5 (I had in mind a player with 10 per, opponent with the
              >average 15). I also conveniently, but I think not too inaccurately
              >decided that a team of replacement level players would be lucky to
              >win any games. After all, last year the best player from the
              >previous year by PER was on a league worst 21 win team. I genuinely
              >think a team of replacement level players would have a much rougher
              >time in the NBA than in MLB. But this allowed me to divvy up wins
              >based on how number of minutes played * (Perdiff + 5). Those with
              >per difference less than -5 were simply given zero wins.
              >
              >I also looked at salaries a bit. The league average for marginal
              >dollar spent/marginal win is approximately 1.3 million per win. [I
              >simply took the league average payroll - 12*366,000. For an
              >individual I just examine (salary - 366,000)/wins. ]
              >
              >I give here the top 40 players. The Permin is simply a perminute
              >rating based on my win rating. Based on my calculations, among top
              >40 players, only Shaq and Michael Finley were overpaid (paid more
              >than 1.3 mill/win) last year.
              >
              >This was really just done for fun, but I'd like to hear any thoughts
              >people might have.
              >
              >ben
              >
              >Name Team Minutes Salary Wins Permin mill/win
              >Garnett min 81% 28.00 27.8 34.3 0.995
              >Duncan san 63% 12.00 20.3 32.2 0.573
              >O'Neal lal 62% 26.50 18.8 30.3 1.390
              >Kirilen uta 73% 1.00 18.5 25.3 0.034
              >Ming hou 68% 3.50 16.5 24.2 0.190
              >Bryant lal 62% 13.50 16.3 26.2 0.807
              >O'Neal ind 70% 12.00 16.0 22.9 0.725
              >Artest ind 68% 5.20 13.2 19.4 0.366
              >Cassell min 72% 5.30 12.8 17.7 0.386
              >Redd mil 76% 2.90 12.5 16.4 0.203
              >Davis nor 68% 10.10 12.4 18.3 0.783
              >Gasol mem 62% 3.40 12.4 20.0 0.245
              >Marbury tot 81% 13.50 12.3 15.1 1.068
              >McGrady orl 67% 13.30 12.2 18.2 1.060
              >Jeffers njn 79% 1.60 12.1 15.4 0.102
              >Randolp por 77% 1.20 12.1 15.8 0.069
              >Pierce bos 78% 12.00 12.1 15.5 0.965
              >Nowitzk dal 74% 12.00 12.0 16.2 0.968
              >Carter tor 70% 12.00 12.0 17.1 0.973
              >Wallace det 77% 5.50 11.6 15.0 0.443
              >Brand lac 67% 11.00 11.5 17.1 0.926
              >Allen sea 54% 13.50 11.1 20.5 1.184
              >Jones mia 76% 12.30 10.6 13.9 1.127
              >Odom mia 76% 8.10 10.6 13.9 0.731
              >Marion pho 81% 9.70 10.5 13.0 0.886
              >Dampier gsw 60% 7.50 10.5 17.5 0.678
              >Ilgausk cle 64% 13.50 10.3 16.1 1.278
              >Kidd njn 62% 12.20 10.2 16.5 1.159
              >Billups det 70% 5.00 10.0 14.3 0.464
              >Finley dal 70% 13.30 9.9 14.1 1.310
              >Ginobil san 56% 1.50 9.7 17.3 0.117
              >Jamison dal 60% 12.00 9.7 16.1 1.203
              >Boozer cle 65% 0.60 9.5 14.7 0.025
              >James cle 79% 4.00 9.4 11.9 0.387
              >Miller ind 57% 4.50 9.1 16.0 0.452
              >Magloir nor 70% 1.70 9.1 13.1 0.146
              >Posey mem 61% 4.90 8.9 14.6 0.510
              >Anthony den 75% 3.20 8.8 11.8 0.321
              >Martin njn 57% 5.10 8.8 15.4 0.540
              >Maggett lac 66% 5.90 8.7 13.2 0.636
              >
              >

              _________________________________________________________________
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            • wimpds
              Sorry, I just cut and pasted from the team pages on Roland s site. When I made the spreadsheet with all the win values, I didn t include the per values my
              Message 6 of 6 , Aug 1, 2004
              • 0 Attachment
                Sorry, I just cut and pasted from the team pages on Roland's site.
                When I made the spreadsheet with all the win values, I didn't
                include the per values my ratings are based on. FYI, if you go to
                the team pages and click the righ button on the data, the "export to
                excel" option works quite well. It just takes a while to do it for
                each page.

                ben


                --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Daniel Dickey"
                <danthestatman@h...> wrote:
                > Hey - do you have the PER differential for all the players in a
                spreadsheet?
                > I'd like to mess with this if you did. I asked somewhere else
                too I
                > think.
                >
                > Maybe Roland can condense some of this stuff in a spreadsheet for
                us (PER,
                > PER diff, Team offensive/defensive pts per 100 possessions
                with/without
                > player)? I'd even pay him a few $$ for the info - although I am
                pretty
                > cheap ;)
                >
                > Dan
                >
                > >From: "wimpds" <wimpds@y...>
                > >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
                > >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
                > >Subject: [APBR_analysis] A PER-based Win Value rating
                > >Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 23:11:47 -0000
                > >
                > >I constructed a pretty simple win over replacement level rating
                > >based on the PER difference. I pretty casually set the
                replacement
                > >level at -5 (I had in mind a player with 10 per, opponent with the
                > >average 15). I also conveniently, but I think not too
                inaccurately
                > >decided that a team of replacement level players would be lucky to
                > >win any games. After all, last year the best player from the
                > >previous year by PER was on a league worst 21 win team. I
                genuinely
                > >think a team of replacement level players would have a much
                rougher
                > >time in the NBA than in MLB. But this allowed me to divvy up wins
                > >based on how number of minutes played * (Perdiff + 5). Those
                with
                > >per difference less than -5 were simply given zero wins.
                > >
                > >I also looked at salaries a bit. The league average for marginal
                > >dollar spent/marginal win is approximately 1.3 million per win.
                [I
                > >simply took the league average payroll - 12*366,000. For an
                > >individual I just examine (salary - 366,000)/wins. ]
                > >
                > >I give here the top 40 players. The Permin is simply a perminute
                > >rating based on my win rating. Based on my calculations, among
                top
                > >40 players, only Shaq and Michael Finley were overpaid (paid more
                > >than 1.3 mill/win) last year.
                > >
                > >This was really just done for fun, but I'd like to hear any
                thoughts
                > >people might have.
                > >
                > >ben
                > >
                > >Name Team Minutes Salary Wins Permin mill/win
                > >Garnett min 81% 28.00 27.8 34.3 0.995
                > >Duncan san 63% 12.00 20.3 32.2 0.573
                > >O'Neal lal 62% 26.50 18.8 30.3 1.390
                > >Kirilen uta 73% 1.00 18.5 25.3 0.034
                > >Ming hou 68% 3.50 16.5 24.2 0.190
                > >Bryant lal 62% 13.50 16.3 26.2 0.807
                > >O'Neal ind 70% 12.00 16.0 22.9 0.725
                > >Artest ind 68% 5.20 13.2 19.4 0.366
                > >Cassell min 72% 5.30 12.8 17.7 0.386
                > >Redd mil 76% 2.90 12.5 16.4 0.203
                > >Davis nor 68% 10.10 12.4 18.3 0.783
                > >Gasol mem 62% 3.40 12.4 20.0 0.245
                > >Marbury tot 81% 13.50 12.3 15.1 1.068
                > >McGrady orl 67% 13.30 12.2 18.2 1.060
                > >Jeffers njn 79% 1.60 12.1 15.4 0.102
                > >Randolp por 77% 1.20 12.1 15.8 0.069
                > >Pierce bos 78% 12.00 12.1 15.5 0.965
                > >Nowitzk dal 74% 12.00 12.0 16.2 0.968
                > >Carter tor 70% 12.00 12.0 17.1 0.973
                > >Wallace det 77% 5.50 11.6 15.0 0.443
                > >Brand lac 67% 11.00 11.5 17.1 0.926
                > >Allen sea 54% 13.50 11.1 20.5 1.184
                > >Jones mia 76% 12.30 10.6 13.9 1.127
                > >Odom mia 76% 8.10 10.6 13.9 0.731
                > >Marion pho 81% 9.70 10.5 13.0 0.886
                > >Dampier gsw 60% 7.50 10.5 17.5 0.678
                > >Ilgausk cle 64% 13.50 10.3 16.1 1.278
                > >Kidd njn 62% 12.20 10.2 16.5 1.159
                > >Billups det 70% 5.00 10.0 14.3 0.464
                > >Finley dal 70% 13.30 9.9 14.1 1.310
                > >Ginobil san 56% 1.50 9.7 17.3 0.117
                > >Jamison dal 60% 12.00 9.7 16.1 1.203
                > >Boozer cle 65% 0.60 9.5 14.7 0.025
                > >James cle 79% 4.00 9.4 11.9 0.387
                > >Miller ind 57% 4.50 9.1 16.0 0.452
                > >Magloir nor 70% 1.70 9.1 13.1 0.146
                > >Posey mem 61% 4.90 8.9 14.6 0.510
                > >Anthony den 75% 3.20 8.8 11.8 0.321
                > >Martin njn 57% 5.10 8.8 15.4 0.540
                > >Maggett lac 66% 5.90 8.7 13.2 0.636
                > >
                > >
                >
                > _________________________________________________________________
                > Overwhelmed by debt? Find out how to `Dig Yourself Out of Debt'
                from MSN
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