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Re: the Ruben Patterson effect

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  • Kevin Pelton
    ... Here s my definition: This opponent PER is subtracted from the player s own PER to give an idea of his total value to the team. I was a little dubious at
    Message 1 of 57 , Jul 27, 2004
      > Out of curiosity what exactly by your definitions is the "Hedo
      > effect"?

      Here's my definition:

      "This opponent PER is subtracted from the player's own PER to give an
      idea of his total value to the team. I was a little dubious at first
      because of what I'll call The Hedo Turkoglu Effect. Opposing small
      forwards had a ridiculously low 11.8 PER against Turkoglu last
      season, but he's not some terrifically underrated defender; he's
      benefiting from the fact that Bruce Bowen defended the better
      offensive perimeter player. The two guys have virtually identical
      opponent PERs, but Bowen did all the heavy lifting."
    • Daniel Flemming
      ... Hash: SHA1 ... No, this is wrong. It s wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he s older)
      Message 57 of 57 , Aug 5, 2004
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        On Wed, 4 Aug 2004 smckibbi@... wrote:

        > Great idea. Perhaps the criteria for deciding which swingman is guarding who
        > would be the team's overall def points per 100 possessions when the swingman
        > is on the court. The one with the lower pts/100 poss is guarding the better
        > offensive player.

        No, this is wrong. It's wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like
        Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he's older) usually don't
        guard the opposing bench's best player; they take a rest when the other
        side's coach brings his bench players onto the floor.

        You get a guy like Peterson on the Raptors, he's usually on the floor when
        the other side's bench is, and usually not when their starters are. Now,
        he's a good defender, but his stats are going to get enhanced under this
        formula.

        Here's a Modest Proposal: Track the overall offensive production per
        minute or possession of the opposing team's players that a particular
        player defends. Compare that to their offensive production per minute or
        possession while he's on the floor. A negative result means a good
        defender, a positive result means a bad one, zero means average.
        - --
        GnuPG public key available from
        http://homepage.mac.com/danflemming/gnupg_key.html
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