Re: the Ruben Patterson effect
> Out of curiosity what exactly by your definitions is the "HedoHere's my definition:
"This opponent PER is subtracted from the player's own PER to give an
idea of his total value to the team. I was a little dubious at first
because of what I'll call The Hedo Turkoglu Effect. Opposing small
forwards had a ridiculously low 11.8 PER against Turkoglu last
season, but he's not some terrifically underrated defender; he's
benefiting from the fact that Bruce Bowen defended the better
offensive perimeter player. The two guys have virtually identical
opponent PERs, but Bowen did all the heavy lifting."
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On Wed, 4 Aug 2004 smckibbi@... wrote:
> Great idea. Perhaps the criteria for deciding which swingman is guarding who
> would be the team's overall def points per 100 possessions when the swingman
> is on the court. The one with the lower pts/100 poss is guarding the better
> offensive player.
No, this is wrong. It's wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like
Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he's older) usually don't
guard the opposing bench's best player; they take a rest when the other
side's coach brings his bench players onto the floor.
You get a guy like Peterson on the Raptors, he's usually on the floor when
the other side's bench is, and usually not when their starters are. Now,
he's a good defender, but his stats are going to get enhanced under this
Here's a Modest Proposal: Track the overall offensive production per
minute or possession of the opposing team's players that a particular
player defends. Compare that to their offensive production per minute or
possession while he's on the floor. A negative result means a good
defender, a positive result means a bad one, zero means average.
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