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Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: the Ruben Patterson effect

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  • Roland Beech
    it s a bit of a play on Kevin s references to the Hedo Turkoglu effect but in the Patterson effect it refers to the fact that players may be on court for
    Message 1 of 57 , Jul 27, 2004
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      it's a bit of a play on Kevin's references to the "Hedo Turkoglu effect" but in the Patterson effect it refers to the fact that players may be on court for more defensive possessions than offensive ones, or vice versa, which biases the raw plus/minus type numbers.
       
      Patterson was the last time I checked the most extreme case of this, facing something like 50-60 more defensive possessions, which with the value of a possession being roughly 1 point, means he had like a -60 'handicap' to his raw plus/minus just on account of the way he was substituted.
       
      By doing the on/off numbers based on points per possesion instead of pure points you can weed out this problem.
      ----- Original Message -----
      Sent: Tuesday, July 27, 2004 10:36 AM
      Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Jon Barry and Rip Hamilton drop in PER

      for the uninitiated, what's the Ruben Patterson
      effect?


      --- Roland Beech <roland@...> wrote:
      > yah, the PER diff + on/off is a simplistic average
      >
      > the raw on/off of course is not even as good as the
      > raw on/off using pts per 100 possessions (see the
      > "Ruben Patterson effect"), but I went with that in
      > the article for ease of use
      >
      > clearly DanVal or some like measure that adjusts the
      > on/off further is preferable, as is adjusting the
      > PER's by the opponent matched up with both
      > offensively and defensively...these are all projects
      > for another day
      >
      > as for hurting Michael Redd by using the on/off,
      > that's kind of the point -- we have to yet to
      > understand what to make of the players with great
      > personal stats but poor team influence, and only
      > more years of data and more investigation into the
      > details of things will help us determine the best
      > "read" on said types
      >
      >
      >   ----- Original Message -----
      >   From: nickouli5
      >   To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      >   Sent: Monday, July 26, 2004 1:59 PM
      >   Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Jon Barry and Rip
      > Hamilton drop in PER
      >
      >
      >   Oh I see now.
      >
      >   So basically David Robinson's +7.8 in PER was
      > really +8.1
      >   differential if you are doing it based on PURE PER
      > differential and
      >   NOT factoring ON and OFF court?  Because his on
      > off court was 7.5 so
      >   its simply a 50% weight for each of those and you
      > can solve for pure
      >   PER differential based on you giving me the PER +
      > ON OFF COURT
      >   averages.  Correct?
      >
      >   So Jon Barry really had a PURE PER differential
      > last season of +1.4
      >   and his on OFF court of +9.0 helped boost his PER
      > differential based
      >   on your NEW standards of factoring in both
      > measures?  Correct?
      >
      >   Am I on the right track?
      >
      >   Doesn't this hurt Michael Redd big time due to his
      > -8.8 ON OFF COURT
      >   statistic?
      >
      >
      >
      >
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    • Daniel Flemming
      ... Hash: SHA1 ... No, this is wrong. It s wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he s older)
      Message 57 of 57 , Aug 5, 2004
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        -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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        On Wed, 4 Aug 2004 smckibbi@... wrote:

        > Great idea. Perhaps the criteria for deciding which swingman is guarding who
        > would be the team's overall def points per 100 possessions when the swingman
        > is on the court. The one with the lower pts/100 poss is guarding the better
        > offensive player.

        No, this is wrong. It's wrong because it favours bench players. Guys like
        Bowen and Artest (and especially Bowen, because he's older) usually don't
        guard the opposing bench's best player; they take a rest when the other
        side's coach brings his bench players onto the floor.

        You get a guy like Peterson on the Raptors, he's usually on the floor when
        the other side's bench is, and usually not when their starters are. Now,
        he's a good defender, but his stats are going to get enhanced under this
        formula.

        Here's a Modest Proposal: Track the overall offensive production per
        minute or possession of the opposing team's players that a particular
        player defends. Compare that to their offensive production per minute or
        possession while he's on the floor. A negative result means a good
        defender, a positive result means a bad one, zero means average.
        - --
        GnuPG public key available from
        http://homepage.mac.com/danflemming/gnupg_key.html
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