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Re: PER Predictabilty

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  • mrintp2000
    good idea
    Message 1 of 12 , Jul 23 12:42 PM
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      good idea

      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
      > I wonder if we could "test drive" our various rating systems by
      > checking average variability from year to year, for all players.
      >
      > A "bad" system might show players as less consistent than they
      > really are. But I can't imagine it would show many guys looking
      > More consistent than they really are.
      >
      >
      >
      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
      > <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
      > > It depends what you mean by consistent. Players get injured, sick,
      > > try harder or less hard, add muscle or lose it, etc. No measure of
      > a
      > > player's performance will be identical from year to year, because
      > > that isn't reality. That's not just basketball, either -- it's the
      > > same for just about any sport.
      > >
      > >
      > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, tajallie@h... wrote:
      > > > That's fine . .but it appears what you are saying is that PER is
      > > not
      > > > the consisent from year to year which seems different from what
      > I
      > > > have heard hear in the past.
      > > >
      > > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
      > > > <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
      > > > > Actually, look at any group of players and that's a pretty
      > normal
      > > > > variation. Ferinstance, just look at the top 10 from each year
      > > > among
      > > > > PG's who didn't switch teams -- Baron Davis 16.83 to 21.39,
      > Jason
      > > > > Kidd 22.17 to 19.67, Steve Nash 22.60 to 20.42, Francis 20.58
      > to
      > > > > 15.78, Bibby 17.55 to 19.17, Billups 20.43 to 18.60, BoJax
      > 18.36
      > > to
      > > > > 19.10.
      > > > >
      > > > > Speedy wasn't in the top 50 because he didn't play enough
      > > minutes --
      > > >
      > > > > he went from 15.84 to 17.25. Daniels DID shoot up (listed at
      > SG
      > > in
      > > > > 03) -- from 13.32 to 19.67, one of the biggest one year jumps
      > > I've
      > > > > ever seen. Of course the two other jumps of that magnitude
      > last
      > > > > season were by Erick Dampier and Mark Blount, who didn't
      > change
      > > > teams.
      > > > >
      > > > >
      > > > >
      > > > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, tajallie@h... wrote:
      > > > > > Just looking at the PG: 18.53 to 15.88 for Gilbert, A Miller
      > > went
      > > > > > from 15.12 to 18.82, Payton went from 21.16 to 17.29,
      > Boykins
      > > > went
      > > > > > from 17.56 to 16.20, Armstrong went from 14.57 to 16.17 -
      > Marb
      > > > and
      > > > > > Cassell were relatively unchanged but the other all changes
      > in
      > > > > excess
      > > > > > of 10% 'cept Boykins and I am guessing A Daniels and Speedy
      > > > pretty
      > > > > > much shot off the chart as well since there weren't even in
      > the
      > > > top
      > > > > > 50.
      > > > > >
      > > > > > If PER are consisent, I would have expected to see closer
      > > > > > results. 'Course maybe those types of moves are more the
      > norm
      > > and
      > > > > > therefore I would conclude that PER are not that consistent.
      > > > > >
      > > > > > Looking at the top 10 PF from last year, only two had real
      > > > > signficant
      > > > > > changes in their PER - Malone who was traded and Webber who
      > was
      > > > > > injured (although KG improvement could also be argued as
      > pretty
      > > > > > significant, just over 10% improvement to 29.44 from 26.38).
      > > > Maybe
      > > > > I
      > > > > > am misreading the numbers but it seems to be the biggest
      > > changes
      > > > > > center around players switching teams.
      > > > > >
      > > > > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
      > > > > > <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
      > > > > > > In fact, I haven't found any consistent problems with team-
      > > > > jumpers -
      > > > > > -
      > > > > > > guys have their PER jump and down all the time, but those
      > > who
      > > > > > change
      > > > > > > teams aren't any more likely to fluctuate than the others.
      > > > > Thinking
      > > > > > > off the top of my head of the guys who changed teams last
      > > year -
      > > > -
      > > > > > > Jamison, Spre, Van Horn, Big Dog, Arenas, Cliffy,
      > Turkoglu,
      > > > Brad
      > > > > > > Miller, Mercer etc. -- their PER didn't change much from
      > the
      > > > > > previous
      > > > > > > season.
      > > > > > >
      > > > > > >
      > > > > > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "carlos12155"
      > > > > > > <carlosmanuel@b...> wrote:
      > > > > > > > I would say that PER changes when switching teams are
      > > > probably
      > > > > > due
      > > > > > > to
      > > > > > > > chages in poss. usage. And even then, PER doesn't
      > changes
      > > > that
      > > > > > much.
      > > > > > > > Jamison went from scoring 22 ppg in GS to 14 ppg
      > (although
      > > > with
      > > > > > much
      > > > > > > > more efficiency) in Dallas and his PER only went from 19
      > to
      > > > 21.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > Carlos
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas
      > > > > <gabefark@y...>
      > > > > > > wrote:
      > > > > > > > > That's basically what I was thinking, too.
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > If other players on your team have a good PER, then
      > > > > > > > > yours will benefit, too.
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > --- tajallie@h... wrote:
      > > > > > > > > > Just glancing at Hollinger PER stats it appears that
      > > > > > > > > > the players have
      > > > > > > > > > big changes in thier PER's when they switch teams
      > > > > > > > > > (although maybe
      > > > > > > > > > Bob's stats demonstrate this is mostly PT & Poss
      > > > > > > > > > dependant). Isn't is
      > > > > > > > > > possible that the team PER is a significant driver
      > > > > > > > > > of individual PER?
      > > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > >
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