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Re: Early FA signings

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  • Kevin Pelton
    ... In Nash s specific case, I have these five guys rated as his most comparable players at age 30 (and the only guys I rate particularly similar): John
    Message 1 of 9 , Jul 4, 2004
      > I'd really like to get a handle on when guys peak and start to
      > decline. It seems that things start going downhill rapidly after 30
      > but I don't have any data to support that.

      In Nash's specific case, I have these five guys rated as his most
      comparable players at age 30 (and the only guys I rate particularly
      similar):

      John Stockton
      John Lucas
      Terrell Brandon
      Brad Davis
      Mark Price

      Stockton, of course, played forever. Lucas lasted until 36, but his
      last year as a regular was at 34, and his last productive year the
      season before (although I don't think cocaine is a big worry in
      Nash's case). Brandon's last year came the next year, at 31, because
      of his leg injury. Davis played through 36, but his last really
      productive season was 34 (although he and Lucas weren't as good as
      Nash in the first place). Price, who I subjectively think might be
      the best comparison, was a regular through his retirement at age 34,
      but had one year where injuries (can't remember what) limited him to
      seven games.

      If you look at the three guys who made it through the course of
      Nash's new contract, their average minutes played went:

      30: 2260
      31: 1868
      32: 2190
      33: 1873
      34: 1991
      35: 1721
      36: 1075

      And their efficiency, adjusted for league average went:

      30: 120.0
      31: 115.3
      32: 115.6
      33: 117.0
      34: 115.5
      35: 111.1
      36: 103.1

      Read into that what you will.
    • mrintp2000
      Message 2 of 9 , Jul 5, 2004
        --- Interesting, thanks

        In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@h...> wrote:
        > > I'd really like to get a handle on when guys peak and start to
        > > decline. It seems that things start going downhill rapidly after 30
        > > but I don't have any data to support that.
        >
        > In Nash's specific case, I have these five guys rated as his most
        > comparable players at age 30 (and the only guys I rate particularly
        > similar):
        >
        > John Stockton
        > John Lucas
        > Terrell Brandon
        > Brad Davis
        > Mark Price
        >
        > Stockton, of course, played forever. Lucas lasted until 36, but his
        > last year as a regular was at 34, and his last productive year the
        > season before (although I don't think cocaine is a big worry in
        > Nash's case). Brandon's last year came the next year, at 31, because
        > of his leg injury. Davis played through 36, but his last really
        > productive season was 34 (although he and Lucas weren't as good as
        > Nash in the first place). Price, who I subjectively think might be
        > the best comparison, was a regular through his retirement at age 34,
        > but had one year where injuries (can't remember what) limited him to
        > seven games.
        >
        > If you look at the three guys who made it through the course of
        > Nash's new contract, their average minutes played went:
        >
        > 30: 2260
        > 31: 1868
        > 32: 2190
        > 33: 1873
        > 34: 1991
        > 35: 1721
        > 36: 1075
        >
        > And their efficiency, adjusted for league average went:
        >
        > 30: 120.0
        > 31: 115.3
        > 32: 115.6
        > 33: 117.0
        > 34: 115.5
        > 35: 111.1
        > 36: 103.1
        >
        > Read into that what you will.
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