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Re: Early FA signings

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  • mrintp2000
    ... I d really like to get a handle on when guys peak and start to decline. It seems that things start going downhill rapidly after 30 but I don t have any
    Message 1 of 9 , Jul 3, 2004
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Stephen Greenwell
      <sgre6768@p...> wrote:
      >

      I'd really like to get a handle on when guys peak and start to
      decline. It seems that things start going downhill rapidly after 30
      but I don't have any data to support that.

      Either way I think Nash and Camby are too old and not good enough for
      the money they're getting.
    • harlanzo
      ... wrote:Does Martin still want a maximum contract? That seems like a bit of a stretch. He s rated as the 12th best PF by PER. He regarded
      Message 2 of 9 , Jul 3, 2004
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Stephen Greenwell
        <sgre6768@p...> wrote:Does Martin still want a maximum contract?
        That seems like a bit of a stretch. He's rated as the 12th best PF
        by PER. He regarded as a quality defender, but I doubt he's
        anywhere close to the player that Elton Brand is, who's the third
        rated PF.

        Camby is a bit lower than Martin in PER, but I'd favor Martin over
        him too; Martin isn't as injury prone, he's younger, and probably a
        better defender. Martin vs. Nash, the distinction isn't as clear in
        my mind - Nash if it's a short term deal, Martin if it's long-term.
        However, I still think it will be a mistake if anyone gives Martin a
        max-deal, or tries to build a team around him.

        Stephen Greenwell
        >


        I agree KMart isn't a max guy but better to overpay him than Camby
        (this all depends on how much they gave Camby).
      • Kevin Pelton
        ... In Nash s specific case, I have these five guys rated as his most comparable players at age 30 (and the only guys I rate particularly similar): John
        Message 3 of 9 , Jul 4, 2004
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          > I'd really like to get a handle on when guys peak and start to
          > decline. It seems that things start going downhill rapidly after 30
          > but I don't have any data to support that.

          In Nash's specific case, I have these five guys rated as his most
          comparable players at age 30 (and the only guys I rate particularly
          similar):

          John Stockton
          John Lucas
          Terrell Brandon
          Brad Davis
          Mark Price

          Stockton, of course, played forever. Lucas lasted until 36, but his
          last year as a regular was at 34, and his last productive year the
          season before (although I don't think cocaine is a big worry in
          Nash's case). Brandon's last year came the next year, at 31, because
          of his leg injury. Davis played through 36, but his last really
          productive season was 34 (although he and Lucas weren't as good as
          Nash in the first place). Price, who I subjectively think might be
          the best comparison, was a regular through his retirement at age 34,
          but had one year where injuries (can't remember what) limited him to
          seven games.

          If you look at the three guys who made it through the course of
          Nash's new contract, their average minutes played went:

          30: 2260
          31: 1868
          32: 2190
          33: 1873
          34: 1991
          35: 1721
          36: 1075

          And their efficiency, adjusted for league average went:

          30: 120.0
          31: 115.3
          32: 115.6
          33: 117.0
          34: 115.5
          35: 111.1
          36: 103.1

          Read into that what you will.
        • mrintp2000
          Message 4 of 9 , Jul 5, 2004
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            --- Interesting, thanks

            In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@h...> wrote:
            > > I'd really like to get a handle on when guys peak and start to
            > > decline. It seems that things start going downhill rapidly after 30
            > > but I don't have any data to support that.
            >
            > In Nash's specific case, I have these five guys rated as his most
            > comparable players at age 30 (and the only guys I rate particularly
            > similar):
            >
            > John Stockton
            > John Lucas
            > Terrell Brandon
            > Brad Davis
            > Mark Price
            >
            > Stockton, of course, played forever. Lucas lasted until 36, but his
            > last year as a regular was at 34, and his last productive year the
            > season before (although I don't think cocaine is a big worry in
            > Nash's case). Brandon's last year came the next year, at 31, because
            > of his leg injury. Davis played through 36, but his last really
            > productive season was 34 (although he and Lucas weren't as good as
            > Nash in the first place). Price, who I subjectively think might be
            > the best comparison, was a regular through his retirement at age 34,
            > but had one year where injuries (can't remember what) limited him to
            > seven games.
            >
            > If you look at the three guys who made it through the course of
            > Nash's new contract, their average minutes played went:
            >
            > 30: 2260
            > 31: 1868
            > 32: 2190
            > 33: 1873
            > 34: 1991
            > 35: 1721
            > 36: 1075
            >
            > And their efficiency, adjusted for league average went:
            >
            > 30: 120.0
            > 31: 115.3
            > 32: 115.6
            > 33: 117.0
            > 34: 115.5
            > 35: 111.1
            > 36: 103.1
            >
            > Read into that what you will.
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