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Re: Early FA signings

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  • John Hollinger
    Tough call, but I ll go with Camby because he s guaranteed to miss half the games. I knew Denver would give him a lot of money, but I never dreamed they d give
    Message 1 of 9 , Jul 2, 2004
      Tough call, but I'll go with Camby because he's guaranteed to miss
      half the games. I knew Denver would give him a lot of money, but I
      never dreamed they'd give him five years.

      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, tajallie@h... wrote:
      > Which signing is more overpaid: Nash at $65M for fives years or
      Camby
      > at $55M-$60M for six. Two 30 year old players, both with some
      talent
      > but serious questions at those types of $$$.
    • harlanzo
      ... Camby ... talent ... Camby is a worse deal. He is always injured and they have a bunch of younger guys who can block shots (Elson, Chris Andersen).
      Message 2 of 9 , Jul 3, 2004
        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, tajallie@h... wrote:
        > Which signing is more overpaid: Nash at $65M for fives years or
        Camby
        > at $55M-$60M for six. Two 30 year old players, both with some
        talent
        > but serious questions at those types of $$$.

        Camby is a worse deal. He is always injured and they have a bunch
        of younger guys who can block shots (Elson, Chris Andersen).
        Camby's good but this might cost them a chance at KMart.
      • Stephen Greenwell
        Camby is a worse deal. He is always injured and they have a bunch of younger guys who can block shots (Elson, Chris Andersen). Camby s good but this might cost
        Message 3 of 9 , Jul 3, 2004
          Camby is a worse deal.  He is always injured and they have a bunch
          of younger guys who can block shots (Elson, Chris Andersen). 
          Camby's good but this might cost them a chance at KMart.

          Does Martin still want a maximum contract?  That seems like a bit of a stretch.  He's rated as the 12th best PF by PER.  He regarded as a quality defender, but I doubt he's anywhere close to the player that Elton Brand is, who's the third rated PF.

          Camby is a bit lower than Martin in PER, but I'd favor Martin over him too; Martin isn't as injury prone, he's younger, and probably a better defender.  Martin vs. Nash, the distinction isn't as clear in my mind - Nash if it's a short term deal, Martin if it's long-term.  However, I still think it will be a mistake if anyone gives Martin a max-deal, or tries to build a team around him.

          Stephen Greenwell
        • mrintp2000
          ... I d really like to get a handle on when guys peak and start to decline. It seems that things start going downhill rapidly after 30 but I don t have any
          Message 4 of 9 , Jul 3, 2004
            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Stephen Greenwell
            <sgre6768@p...> wrote:
            >

            I'd really like to get a handle on when guys peak and start to
            decline. It seems that things start going downhill rapidly after 30
            but I don't have any data to support that.

            Either way I think Nash and Camby are too old and not good enough for
            the money they're getting.
          • harlanzo
            ... wrote:Does Martin still want a maximum contract? That seems like a bit of a stretch. He s rated as the 12th best PF by PER. He regarded
            Message 5 of 9 , Jul 3, 2004
              --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Stephen Greenwell
              <sgre6768@p...> wrote:Does Martin still want a maximum contract?
              That seems like a bit of a stretch. He's rated as the 12th best PF
              by PER. He regarded as a quality defender, but I doubt he's
              anywhere close to the player that Elton Brand is, who's the third
              rated PF.

              Camby is a bit lower than Martin in PER, but I'd favor Martin over
              him too; Martin isn't as injury prone, he's younger, and probably a
              better defender. Martin vs. Nash, the distinction isn't as clear in
              my mind - Nash if it's a short term deal, Martin if it's long-term.
              However, I still think it will be a mistake if anyone gives Martin a
              max-deal, or tries to build a team around him.

              Stephen Greenwell
              >


              I agree KMart isn't a max guy but better to overpay him than Camby
              (this all depends on how much they gave Camby).
            • Kevin Pelton
              ... In Nash s specific case, I have these five guys rated as his most comparable players at age 30 (and the only guys I rate particularly similar): John
              Message 6 of 9 , Jul 4, 2004
                > I'd really like to get a handle on when guys peak and start to
                > decline. It seems that things start going downhill rapidly after 30
                > but I don't have any data to support that.

                In Nash's specific case, I have these five guys rated as his most
                comparable players at age 30 (and the only guys I rate particularly
                similar):

                John Stockton
                John Lucas
                Terrell Brandon
                Brad Davis
                Mark Price

                Stockton, of course, played forever. Lucas lasted until 36, but his
                last year as a regular was at 34, and his last productive year the
                season before (although I don't think cocaine is a big worry in
                Nash's case). Brandon's last year came the next year, at 31, because
                of his leg injury. Davis played through 36, but his last really
                productive season was 34 (although he and Lucas weren't as good as
                Nash in the first place). Price, who I subjectively think might be
                the best comparison, was a regular through his retirement at age 34,
                but had one year where injuries (can't remember what) limited him to
                seven games.

                If you look at the three guys who made it through the course of
                Nash's new contract, their average minutes played went:

                30: 2260
                31: 1868
                32: 2190
                33: 1873
                34: 1991
                35: 1721
                36: 1075

                And their efficiency, adjusted for league average went:

                30: 120.0
                31: 115.3
                32: 115.6
                33: 117.0
                34: 115.5
                35: 111.1
                36: 103.1

                Read into that what you will.
              • mrintp2000
                Message 7 of 9 , Jul 5, 2004
                  --- Interesting, thanks

                  In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@h...> wrote:
                  > > I'd really like to get a handle on when guys peak and start to
                  > > decline. It seems that things start going downhill rapidly after 30
                  > > but I don't have any data to support that.
                  >
                  > In Nash's specific case, I have these five guys rated as his most
                  > comparable players at age 30 (and the only guys I rate particularly
                  > similar):
                  >
                  > John Stockton
                  > John Lucas
                  > Terrell Brandon
                  > Brad Davis
                  > Mark Price
                  >
                  > Stockton, of course, played forever. Lucas lasted until 36, but his
                  > last year as a regular was at 34, and his last productive year the
                  > season before (although I don't think cocaine is a big worry in
                  > Nash's case). Brandon's last year came the next year, at 31, because
                  > of his leg injury. Davis played through 36, but his last really
                  > productive season was 34 (although he and Lucas weren't as good as
                  > Nash in the first place). Price, who I subjectively think might be
                  > the best comparison, was a regular through his retirement at age 34,
                  > but had one year where injuries (can't remember what) limited him to
                  > seven games.
                  >
                  > If you look at the three guys who made it through the course of
                  > Nash's new contract, their average minutes played went:
                  >
                  > 30: 2260
                  > 31: 1868
                  > 32: 2190
                  > 33: 1873
                  > 34: 1991
                  > 35: 1721
                  > 36: 1075
                  >
                  > And their efficiency, adjusted for league average went:
                  >
                  > 30: 120.0
                  > 31: 115.3
                  > 32: 115.6
                  > 33: 117.0
                  > 34: 115.5
                  > 35: 111.1
                  > 36: 103.1
                  >
                  > Read into that what you will.
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