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Re: Detroit vs. LA

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  • John Hollinger
    Well, I d love to see Detroit make it interesting. Both teams are +3.2 victory margin in the past two rounds of the playoffs, so I suppose it s plausible it
    Message 1 of 49 , Jun 3, 2004
      Well, I'd love to see Detroit make it interesting. Both teams are
      +3.2 victory margin in the past two rounds of the playoffs, so I
      suppose it's plausible it could last longer than the pundits expect
      (though LA faced better comp).

      For an 8.5-pt spread you'd have to assume L.A. was 4.5 points better
      on a neutral court. Like, say, the difference between Dallas against
      Milwaukee. Wow. You're right, that seems high, especially given how
      Detroit finished the year.


      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
      wrote:
      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
      > <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
      > > I think Lakers in five. One thing that sticks out to me is that
      the
      > > matchups for Detroit are absolutely terrible. They can't put Ben
      > > Wallace on Shaq or he'll foul out in 20 minutes, and they can't
      put
      > > Rip on Kobe without giving up 30 a night. Detroit's bench is far
      > > better, but that matters less in the playoffs than it did during
      the
      > > season. I suppose if Prince can cover Kobe and Billups blows up
      it
      > > could go six or seven, but I doubt it.
      > >
      >
      > Tayshaun has to cover Kobe. There will be a rotation on him, but
      > Tayshaun makes sense as a stopper. Having Rip on him isn't horrible
      > either. Rip, for all that people, uh, rip on him, works fine in
      that
      > defense. He knows what he is supposed to do, where to force guys.
      > His lateral quickness is good enough. Besides, forcing Kobe to the
      > interior is what you want these days. You can strip him of the ball
      > as Minnesota did only a fair amount. He doesn't protect the ball as
      > well as he should. Detroit's big men especially have quick hands.
      You
      > want to see him make one of those incredibly difficult reverse flips
      > because, yes, they're still difficult for him.
      >
      > I honestly don't know what Larry Brown is going to do to increase
      his
      > odds, but I know that if he works the officials the right way or
      even
      > not the wrong way, if he gives up none of the easy stuff to LA off
      bad
      > turnovers, which is very doable (please Rasheed, don't lose your
      > focus), he can win this series in 5 before going back to LA. The
      > defense is that good -- a couple numbers are pretty ridiculous,
      > suggesting that it is practically impossible to hurt them on the
      > offensive glass, something I've never seen (and don't quite
      believe).
      > And the Lakers are very beatable this year with Shaq definitely
      down
      > a bit from years past (for FTs and other reasons). Looking at even
      > the Lakers' nice playoff performance, I see holes left and right
      that
      > can be taken advantage of. Larry (a fellow UNC guy, I like to point
      > out at times like this) is a good enough coach to see most of those
      > holes, I think, and, more importantly, to convince his guys that
      they
      > can win by playing to those weaknesses. Maybe it's just Roboscout
      > making me see so many things you can do to make up a few points --
      it
      > is my first full year of using it -- but I now get so frustrated
      when
      > I see teams doing the wrong things at times of the game (Minnesota
      > completely choked in the 3rd quarter against the Lakers in Game 6,
      > even though they outscored them and took the lead then. They went
      > away from a dominant strategy, charging the lane, to doing what they
      > were comfortable with, jumpers. They could have fouled out Shaq and
      > maybe Karl/Kobe so that the 4th would have been a lot easier, but
      they
      > stopped attacking the basket. And it's not that the Lakers took it
      > away. But Flip didn't push it. That was 2-4 points right there
      even
      > if KG picks up another foul. How much $$$ did that cost them, too,
      > with one appearance in the Finals raking in dough for teams for 20
      > years into the future?)
      >
      > The 8.5 pt spread is ridiculous. No way the Lakers are that much
      > better. I don't know any of this Vegas stuff, but that was a very
      > interesting opening line. (I guess it's come down to 8.)
      >
      > DeanO
      >
      > Dean Oliver
      > Author, Basketball on Paper
      > http://www.basketballonpaper.com
      > When basketball teams start playing Moneyball, this is the book
      > they'll use!
      >
      >
      >
      >
      > >
      > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Daniel Dickey"
      > > <danthestatman@h...> wrote:
      > > > >From: "Mike G" <msg_53@h...>
      > > > >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      > > > >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      > > > >Subject: [APBR_analysis] Detroit vs. LA
      > > > >Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 13:44:44 -0000
      > > >
      > > > >In any case, the Pistons should not be considered patsies.
      They
      > > > >don't have injuries that I'm aware of. They don't have holes
      on
      > > > >offense or defense. And these numbers suggest they should be
      the
      > > > >favorites.
      > > >
      > > > I am one of the few "crazy" people predicting a Detroit victory
      in
      > > the
      > > > championship series. I have this feeling that Chauncey Billups
      > > will
      > > > actually start playing well - which would help their offense
      > > immensly.
      > > >
      > > > I also have this feeling that the Lakers feel they've already
      won.
      > > >
      > > > I also could easily be wrong - which I've been told by every
      single
      > > person
      > > > I've told this to.
      > > >
      > > >
      _________________________________________________________________
      > > > Check out the coupons and bargains on MSN Offers!
      > > http://youroffers.msn.com
    • mrintp2000
      ... I m not sure what else you can do as a GM. That s why they play the games. ... a ... suggest
      Message 49 of 49 , Jun 9, 2004
        --- If having the best player in the regular season is no guarantee,
        I'm not sure what else you can do as a GM. That's why they play the
        games.

        In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
        > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "mrintp2000" <shzys@n...>
        > wrote:
        > >.. I don't know what
        > > to conclude ...though... having the best player is anything but
        a
        > guarantee of a title. ..
        >
        > Well, only 4/34 teams have lost when they had the best individual
        > Finals performer. It's highly likely the top player will be from
        > the Lakers this year.
        >
        > But if you have the best player coming in, but an opponent is the
        > best in the Finals, there is almost no precendent that would
        suggest
        > you have a chance to win. It's been a 1-in-16 occurrance
        > (Kemp/Jordan in '96).
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