Re: Draft and stats (long reply)
- You're right. The intitial contract is 3 years, with a team option
for a forth year, after which the player becomes a restricted free
agent. It is usually in the players interest to sign a one year
contract for that fifth year with the original team, then become an
unrestricted FA (if another team tries to sign to a long term deal,
the original team can assert its rights and the player is under a long
term deal with the original team). For HS players this still means
that they are free after their 4th (it does happen) or 5th years (more
likely) when they are still only 22-24 years old.
My question is this: what are peak years for an NBA player? For MLB
players it has been demonstrated that 27-29 are a players typical peak
years. It seems that in the NBA, this number is lower. Does anyone
have any insight on this?
--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
> You're correct -- it was three years and then free as a bird.
> McGrady was PRECISELY why that was changed in the '99 CBA, and now
> the team can keep a guy for five years if it wants to.
> --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "jim@b..." <ptbnl123@y...>
> > If I'm remembering correctly, when McGrady was drafted, drafted
> > players signed with teams for 3-4 years and then became free
> > The key difference today is that those players become restricted
> > free agents. So, after a team devotes four years into developing a
> > player, they are granted the right to match any offer he gets. Plus
> > the team gets the Larry Bird Exception and can over the
> > cap to resign the player.
> > >
> > > Again, my point isn't that HS players should never be drafted, but
> > > rather that I would let someone else pay for the time and
> > of
> > > these HS players until they are ready to excel (hey, Bender may
> > > become a great player, but it'll be a year or two more -- and he
> > was
> > > drafted in 1999 and he's only 23, by Toronto BTW). The NBA is a
> > > nomadic environment, players play (and coaches coach) for several
> > > teams in their careers and rarely remain with their original
> > teams.
> > >
> > > The risk-reward just seems like it is not worth it, i.e., either
> > the
> > > player sucks and you're stuck (Diop, Leon Smith), the player
> > blossoms
> > > and stays (Kobe, Garnett), or the player blossoms and is traded,
> > > bolts, gets fat, decides to move to Nepal, etc. These are
> > potential
> > > outcomes for all players, but seem higher for HS players. Maybe
> > what
> > > has come out of this (or will) is that the drafted player is not
> > that
> > > important. It is the bargaining chip in trade talks and the
> > >
- --- <danthestatman@h...> wrote:
> >From: "John Hollinger" <alleyoop2@y...>The
> >One other thing: High assist guys almost never succeed as pros.
> >reason is that to be good enough to be in the NBA, you almosthave to
> >be the best player on your college team. And if you're the bestmuch all top
> >player, you're probably leading the team in points rather than
> I assume you mean high assist, lower scoring guys. Pretty
> tier PGs were high assist guys in college - but very few weremediocre
> scorers in college ...Take it further and just state that the vast majority of college
stars do not succeed at the NBA level -- be they assist guys,
scorers, or whatever.
Is the best player on a bad team more likely to succeed in the NBA
than the sidekick on a championship team? I doubt it.
Bobby Hurley was often likened to Bob Cousy. I imagined we might
find out how Cousy would do in the '90s NBA. Did we ?