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RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Let's discuss scouting (How would you do a better job?) (long)

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  • Michael Tamada
    ... From: mrintp2000 [mailto:shzys@netscape.net] Sent: Wed 6/2/2004 11:29 AM ... [...] ... Excellent point, although in this case we can see that the college
    Message 1 of 55 , Jun 2, 2004
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      -----Original Message-----
      From: mrintp2000 [mailto:shzys@...]
      Sent: Wed 6/2/2004 11:29 AM



      > 0.884 R48

      [...]

      > It's pretty clear that rebounding translates the best, which
      > shouldn't be a major surprise. I think we have to evaluate these
      > numbers in the context of the year-to-year consistency of these
      > stats for NBA regulars. Here's what I found for these in a study
      > last summer:
      >
      > 0.938 R48

      Excellent point, although in this case we can see that the college figure is substantially lower than the NBA figure. If one split out some of the college players, either by 1st round draft status, or by "high quality college conference", I wonder if those players would have higher correlations (for rebounding or for any of the other stats) than the players as a whole.

      Another possibility would be to split players by quality of team, although it could very well be that players from high-powered college teams might have *worse* predictability, because their teams and teammates might simply be overpowering weak college opponents, giving them stats that they won't be able to replicate in the pros (Laettner, Hurley).

      --MKT
    • Mike G
      ... The ... have to ... much all top ... mediocre ... Take it further and just state that the vast majority of college stars do not succeed at the NBA level --
      Message 55 of 55 , Jun 3, 2004
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        --- <danthestatman@h...> wrote:

        > >From: "John Hollinger" <alleyoop2@y...>
        > >One other thing: High assist guys almost never succeed as pros.
        The
        > >reason is that to be good enough to be in the NBA, you almost
        have to
        > >be the best player on your college team. And if you're the best
        > >player, you're probably leading the team in points rather than
        > >assists.
        > >
        > I assume you mean high assist, lower scoring guys. Pretty
        much all top
        > tier PGs were high assist guys in college - but very few were
        mediocre
        > scorers in college ...

        Take it further and just state that the vast majority of college
        stars do not succeed at the NBA level -- be they assist guys,
        scorers, or whatever.

        Is the best player on a bad team more likely to succeed in the NBA
        than the sidekick on a championship team? I doubt it.

        Bobby Hurley was often likened to Bob Cousy. I imagined we might
        find out how Cousy would do in the '90s NBA. Did we ?
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