RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Let's discuss scouting (How would you do a better job?) (long)
- -----Original Message-----
From: mrintp2000 [mailto:shzys@...]
Sent: Wed 6/2/2004 11:29 AM
> 0.884 R48[...]
> It's pretty clear that rebounding translates the best, whichExcellent point, although in this case we can see that the college figure is substantially lower than the NBA figure. If one split out some of the college players, either by 1st round draft status, or by "high quality college conference", I wonder if those players would have higher correlations (for rebounding or for any of the other stats) than the players as a whole.
> shouldn't be a major surprise. I think we have to evaluate these
> numbers in the context of the year-to-year consistency of these
> stats for NBA regulars. Here's what I found for these in a study
> last summer:
> 0.938 R48
Another possibility would be to split players by quality of team, although it could very well be that players from high-powered college teams might have *worse* predictability, because their teams and teammates might simply be overpowering weak college opponents, giving them stats that they won't be able to replicate in the pros (Laettner, Hurley).
- --- <danthestatman@h...> wrote:
> >From: "John Hollinger" <alleyoop2@y...>The
> >One other thing: High assist guys almost never succeed as pros.
> >reason is that to be good enough to be in the NBA, you almosthave to
> >be the best player on your college team. And if you're the bestmuch all top
> >player, you're probably leading the team in points rather than
> I assume you mean high assist, lower scoring guys. Pretty
> tier PGs were high assist guys in college - but very few weremediocre
> scorers in college ...Take it further and just state that the vast majority of college
stars do not succeed at the NBA level -- be they assist guys,
scorers, or whatever.
Is the best player on a bad team more likely to succeed in the NBA
than the sidekick on a championship team? I doubt it.
Bobby Hurley was often likened to Bob Cousy. I imagined we might
find out how Cousy would do in the '90s NBA. Did we ?