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Re: 2nd-round overachievers

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  • Mike G
    ... will ... All 4 of these superlakers were among my top (bottom) 12 players in reduced productivity from last year to this year. A great deal of that
    Message 1 of 5 , May 25, 2004
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada" <tamada@o...>
      wrote:
      > ... one could imagine that
      > the Lakers are doing their usual playoff strategy of hooking their
      > fortunes to Shaq and Kobe, so players such as Malone and Payton
      will
      > get fewer shots and points.
      >
      > But if these numbers are looking more at overall production, where
      > lower FG% and higher turnover % are affecting players' stats, then
      > their reduced productivity is more likely to be real, as opposed
      > to just a reflection of fewer shots or touches.

      All 4 of these superlakers were among my top (bottom) 12 players in
      reduced productivity from last year to this year. A great deal of
      that dropoff might be due to "fewer touches".

      Here are their regular-season rates and their 2nd-round-playoff
      rates (vs SA):

      Shaq
      .. eff% sco. reb. ast stl TO. blk - total
      RS .575 24.1 12.1 3.1 0.5 2.9 2.5 - 39.8
      R2 .598 26.4 13.8 2.1 0.2 2.6 4.0 - 45.2

      Shaq clearly morphed into Shaqzilla.


      Kobe
      .. eff% sco. reb ast stl TO. blk - total
      RS .549 25.8 5.7 5.3 1.7 2.6 0.4 - 36.7
      R2 .532 27.9 5.8 6.0 1.5 2.9 0.1 - 39.9

      Shooting more (not better), passing more; = more touches


      Malone
      .. eff% sco. reb. ast stl TO. blk - total
      RS .553 15.9 10.0 4.5 1.3 2.7 0.5 - 29.5
      R2 .481 10.7 `7.7 3.5 1.1 2.5 0.2 - 21.1

      Horry-like numbers in the playoffs.


      Payton
      .. eff% sco. reb ast stl TO. blk - total
      RS .527 16.5 4.6 6.1 1.2 2.0 0.2 - 27.5
      R2 .411 `9.4 3.9 5.9 0.8 1.6 0.2 - 19.8

      Payton and Malone both shot badly for 6 games. And neither made it
      up in other areas, but merely slumped. Now it may be argued that
      Shaq took rebounds away from Malone. The fact that all these guys
      played 38-44 minutes (compared to 33-38 RS MPG) would seem likely to
      exacerbate these perceived dropoffs.

      So I think MikeT's observations are correct, and it's the Laker
      pecking order asserting itself. That and the history of these
      players: Shaq rising for the playoffs, Malone and Payton dropping
      off, and Kobe getting up for the Spurs.
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