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Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: New file uploaded to APBR_analysis

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  • Michael K. Tamada
    ... The other possibility is that the go-to guy is getting the good shots, and the now-role-playing Stoudamire had the settle for the following kinds of shots:
    Message 1 of 77 , Jan 10, 2002
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      On Thu, 10 Jan 2002, mikel_ind wrote:

      > his appetite for scoring. I can't think of a good reason why a guy's
      > shooting pct should plunge 50 points when he isn't the go-to guy. If
      > anything, being more selective should boost one's efficiency. But
      > then, there is something called "scorer's mentality".

      The other possibility is that the go-to guy is getting the good shots, and
      the now-role-playing Stoudamire had the settle for the following kinds of
      shots:

      -- rushed shots with the 24 second clock expiring

      -- occasional low percentage outside shots, which every offense has to
      take once in awhile to prevent the defense from packing in down low

      -- in general, non-prime scoring opportunities, which once were his for
      the taking but which now go to the go-to guys, usually either down low, or
      if they're a Dale Ellis or Reggie Miller type, outside but with the
      benefit of a bunch of picks and screens and passing designed to free them
      up for an open shot


      It's the importance of context once again. In general, the fewer shots
      one attempts, the higher one's field goal percentage should be. But
      there's also the question of whether one is taking those shots as the
      go-to guy (and therefore probably taking them in favorable circumstances,
      with the offense geared toward helping you) or as a role-player who has to
      settle for the occasional garbage shot.

      But the context gets even more complicated than that: are you the only
      go-to guy, with defenses that can key on you (Stoudamire, Nate Archibald
      with the Kings in the early 1970s), or do you have a pack of other
      offensive threats around you (Worthy with the Lakers, McHale with the
      Celtics)?

      And I think the most interesting one of all, if you're one of those role
      players in the "supporting cast": is your go-to guy one of those true
      superstars who "make his teammates better" or is he a selfish,
      non-creative gunner? I hypothesize that go-to guys like Jordan and Bird
      not only got good shots for themselves, but by being offensive threats and
      good passers they opened up scoring opportunities for their teammates.
      Whereas other big scorers such as Elvin Hayes, probably Adrian Dantley,
      and possibly Moses Malone, simply hogged the good scoring opportunities
      for themselves, without creating good scoring opportunities for their
      teammates.

      A couple of arguments against the hypothesis above: it's also true that
      Hayes, AD, and Moses had extremely good abilities to score in situations
      where most players would've had trouble scoring: surrounded by 2 or 3 big
      players down low. So they were creating some scoring situations
      themselves, rather than just consuming the scoring opportunities created
      by their team running plays for them.

      And someone, I forget who, had evidence that Jordan's teammates didn't
      benefit so much from higher productivity as from higher production, i.e.
      opportunities to produce. So they scored more, but not necessarily at a
      better FG%, with Jordan around. At least that's what I recall, I may've
      mixed up what his findings were.


      Anyway, it's things like these which make basketball so hard to analyze,
      although football and soccer and I suspect hockey would be even harder
      still. (How do you measure the contribution of a left guard? What if the
      offense is geared toward running rushing plays which utilize that guard as
      the "go-to blocker", vs an offense which tends to run to the right side of
      the field? Vs. a passing offense, which simply wants him to protect the
      quarterback?)


      --MKT
    • APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      Hello, This email message is a notification to let you know that a file has been uploaded to the Files area of the APBR_analysis group. File : /Warriors
      Message 77 of 77 , May 5 11:21 PM
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        Hello,

        This email message is a notification to let you know that
        a file has been uploaded to the Files area of the APBR_analysis
        group.

        File : /Warriors Stats.pdf
        Uploaded by : skauffman <skauffman@...>
        Description : Analysis of the Golden State Warriors 2004-05 Season

        You can access this file at the URL:
        http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/files/Warriors%20Stats.pdf

        To learn more about file sharing for your group, please visit:
        http://help.yahoo.com/help/us/groups/files

        Regards,

        skauffman <skauffman@...>
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