Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: New file uploaded to APBR_analysis

Expand Messages
  • HoopStudies
    ... extent ... correct ... But the ... What we have measures performance. It may not consolidate it into perfectly meaningful stuff, which is why we have
    Message 1 of 77 , Jan 9, 2002
    • 0 Attachment
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Michael K. Tamada" <tamada@o...> wrote:
      > This is another perpetual difficulty of sports statistics: to what
      extent
      > can we measure "ability" vs "performance"? You're undoubtedly
      correct
      > that Stoudamire's abilities did not change very much in one year.
      But the
      > circumstances, and thus his performance did change.
      >

      What we have measures performance. It may not consolidate it into
      perfectly meaningful stuff, which is why we have linear weights and
      all sorts of valuation methods. What is VERY hard to measure is
      ability. I have generally assumed that players abilities to perform
      goes down the more they have to do it (because they defense will stop
      them preferentially). I am working on some research right now that
      is based on this principal, but is a much simpler game than
      basketball.

      The conceptual idea is 2 players (A and B), 2 skills (a and b), each
      player can do each skills but with different performance curves,
      where their ability to do each of the skills varies with how often
      they must do them. If they have to shoot all the time, for example,
      they will not be especially proficient. The goal is to optimize the
      <<reward>>, and that reward is a function of accomplishing the 2
      skills. That is the simplification. Once I start some simulations,
      I hope that I can extend it to apply to basketball, shooters,
      passers, dribblers.

      > But there are other times, e.g. when contemplating or evaluating
      trades,
      > when we would like to measure the inherent ability of a player, not
      his
      > actual (and therefore subject to random fluctuation) performance.

      Very true. This is the motivation.

      only that one-year blip caused by injury. But suppose Stoudamire had
      > played with Portland from the beginning, and not had those standout
      > seasons with Toronto? How would we be able to measure his true
      abilities?
      > Or suppose players such as Dale Ellis and Detlef Schrempf had not
      been
      > able to escape the prison of the Dallas Mavs bench, and never became
      > all-star level players with Seattle and Indiana?)

      Stoudamire is an interesting case. Based on my numbers, Stoudamire
      always was mediocre. He scored a lot in Toronto but did it
      inefficiently. When I get back to the States, I will try to pull up
      his #s and pass them on.

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
    • APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      Hello, This email message is a notification to let you know that a file has been uploaded to the Files area of the APBR_analysis group. File : /Warriors
      Message 77 of 77 , May 5, 2005
      • 0 Attachment
        Hello,

        This email message is a notification to let you know that
        a file has been uploaded to the Files area of the APBR_analysis
        group.

        File : /Warriors Stats.pdf
        Uploaded by : skauffman <skauffman@...>
        Description : Analysis of the Golden State Warriors 2004-05 Season

        You can access this file at the URL:
        http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/files/Warriors%20Stats.pdf

        To learn more about file sharing for your group, please visit:
        http://help.yahoo.com/help/us/groups/files

        Regards,

        skauffman <skauffman@...>
      Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.