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Re: The most important stat that nobody seems to use! (PER differential)

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  • Kevin Pelton
    ... The Pistons, as a team, outplay their opponents. Saying their players outplay their opposing matchup is a slightly different issue. That reminds me of a
    Message 1 of 34 , May 3, 2004
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      > The Pistons are a very good team because they have a bunch of
      > guys who outplay the man guarding them.

      The Pistons, as a team, outplay their opponents. Saying their
      players outplay their opposing matchup is a slightly different issue.

      That reminds me of a DeanO point about WINVAL that I wish I'd
      remembered and found a way to point to in my column about DanVAL --
      teams aren't trying to win every five-minute stretch of game,
      they're trying to win a 48-minute game. Similarly, teams aren't
      trying to win each position, they're trying to win _as a team_.

      You could, of course, outplay the opponent at four positions but
      lose because the disparity at the other was so dramatic. That's why
      I can't stand those "head-to-head" matchups people do when
      previewing games (At least in the context of "who's better?" -- I
      actually talk about people head-to-head in my previews for
      Supersonics.com, but in a more general "hey, these are two players
      nominally matched up with each other" sense).

      I think this sort of analysis does have some value, and lately I've
      been thinking about it with regards to the Sonics.

      Everybody (read: Sonics fans) talks about needing a 20-10 guy up
      front, but if the Sonics were merely average at power forward (which
      isn't that far from 20-10) and center, they'd be an outstanding team
      because of their perimeter punch. Similarly, I think a lot of the
      Bucks having about the same record even after their perimeter was
      weakened was getting to almost average with Joe Smith, Brian
      Skinner, and Dan Gadzuric up front.

      This is slightly off the main topic of analysis, but as we continue
      to refine our methods of analyzing individual defense, I think a
      critical topic will be resolving individual and team defense, as
      well as determining how to account for different forms of individual
      defense.

      This is the argument that MikeT and DeanO have advanced in the past:
      If a player, let's call him Doe Jumars, limits guys under their
      usual possessions at the same efficiency, how do we rate that?

      If Allen Iverson gets 50% more steals than the average shooting
      guard but allows opposing players to be 5% more efficient and use 5%
      more possessions, how do we rate that?

      These aren't easy questions.
    • Daniel Dickey
      ... Isn t zone played some in the NBA? Don t players play a variety of matchups in a game? Isn t it often hard to classify what position a player really plays
      Message 34 of 34 , May 7, 2004
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        >From: "mrintp2000" <shzys@...>
        >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
        >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
        >Subject: [APBR_analysis] The most important stat that nobody seems to use!
        >(PER differential)
        >Date: Mon, 03 May 2004 23:11:09 -0000
        >
        >I've read a lot of the discussion about the PER and many people seem
        >to correctly regard it as the best way to measure a players
        >production. But even better, is to measure a player production vs. his
        >opposing player. This way, defense is correctly valued by the stats
        >without an overemphasis on creating defensive stats that don't exist
        >or overvaluing unimportant stats. Allow me to illustrate with an
        >example...

        Isn't zone played some in the NBA? Don't players play a variety of matchups
        in a game?

        Isn't it often hard to classify what position a player really plays (let
        alone the position he defends)?

        Don't get me wrong - the PER differential can give SOME insight. But we
        need to remember the limitations.

        I can promise you that Reggie Miller's low opposing SG PER can be greatly
        attributed to Ron Artest (and maybe a few others). That's the type of thing
        I'm talking about.

        Dan D.

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