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Re: The most important stat that nobody seems to use! (PER differential)

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  • mrintp2000
    Here are the top ten SF s in order SF Jamison 35 7.1 SF Posey 28 6.5 SF Stojakovic 75 6 SF Artest 60 5.9 SF Jefferson 77 5.8 SF Sczerbiak 14 5.5 SF
    Message 1 of 34 , May 3 5:14 PM
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      Here are the top ten SF's in order

      SF Jamison 35 7.1
      SF Posey 28 6.5
      SF Stojakovic 75 6
      SF Artest 60 5.9
      SF Jefferson 77 5.8
      SF Sczerbiak 14 5.5
      SF Maggette 50 5.3
      SF Prince 64 4.1
      SF Mashburn 16 4.1
      SF Marion 47 4

      I'm hesitatant to include Mashburn and Sczerbiak because of the low
      percentage of minutes played at the 3. Then again, that is one of the
      strengths of Mr. Hollinger's approach. I'd say the guys who played
      more minutes can more reliably expected to produce similar
      differentials next season.

      Artest's opponents only managed a PER of 12.7. Prince's opponents
      only managed a PER of 10.1. This alone doesn't show that Prince is a
      better defender, that would require further analysis. It does show
      that both guys dominate, mostly due to their defense rather than their
      own production. Conversely, Jamison is an average defender who
      dominates with his scoring and rebounding.

      I'll respond to your second point later, I'm off to watch the Pistons!




      In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas <gabefark@y...> wrote:
      > two thoughts:
      >
      > 1) I'm wondering where Artest is on the %difference
      > list. People have been touting his ability to hold
      > opposing players to 8 ppg or something like that,
      > while he scored 17. I would assume that would show up
      > somehow.
      >
      > 2) I disagree that it doesn't matter if you have an
      > offensive or defensive team. Team chemistry and a
      > cohesive strategy are pretty important in my book.
      > Just look at the Pistons: everyone knows their role
      > and they play team D.
      >
      >
      > --- mrintp2000 <shzys@n...> wrote:
      > > I've read a lot of the discussion about the PER and
      > > many people seem
      > > to correctly regard it as the best way to measure a
      > > players
      > > production. But even better, is to measure a player
      > > production vs. his
      > > opposing player. This way, defense is correctly
      > > valued by the stats
      > > without an overemphasis on creating defensive stats
      > > that don't exist
      > > or overvaluing unimportant stats. Allow me to
      > > illustrate with an
      > > example...
      > >
      > > Stromile Swift has a high PER of 18.6 when he plays
      > > the PF position.
      > > Impressive, but less impressive when you see that
      > > his opposing PF has
      > > a PER of 18.0. This equates to a modestly impressive
      > > .6 PER
      > > differential.
      > > http://www.82games.com/03MEM13C.HTM
      > >
      > > Now in a similar number of minutes at the PF spot
      > > Chris Bosh has a low
      > > PER of 13.7, while his opponents were 12.8. This
      > > also works out to a
      > > modestly impressive .8 PER differential.
      > > http://www.82games.com/03TOR16C.HTM
      > >
      > > Why is this so important? Because Swift and Bosh
      > > played about equally
      > > well versus their opponents. Swift had better
      > > production and worse
      > > defense, ultimately it's a wash. If we had just
      > > looked at PER we would
      > > have wrongly assumed that Swift had a much better
      > > season.
      > >
      > > I call this the PER differential. The best players
      > > in the L are at the
      > > top of course-
      > >
      > > Name Diff
      > > Garnett 16.7
      > > Duncan 16.1
      > > Shaq 14.6
      > > Ming 12
      > > Allen 11.2
      > > Kobe 10.2
      > > Kirlenko 9
      > >
      > > What really proves the tremendous value of the PER
      > > differential is the
      > > correlation between team PER differential and
      > > winning percentage. You
      > > guys have to forgive me, I have no stats background
      > > (just years of
      > > watching hoops) so I can't give you a number on the
      > > correlation. But
      > > check this out, here are the top teams ranked by PER
      > > differential
      > > during the regular season. (done just before season
      > > end so these
      > > numbers may have changed slightly-taken from
      > > 82games.com)
      > >
      > > Team Diff
      > > Spurs 13.3
      > > Wolves 12.3
      > > Pistons 11
      > > Pacers 9.5
      > > Kings 9.5
      > > Lakers 8.8
      > >
      > > And the worst?
      > >
      > > Team Diff
      > > Tragic -13.5
      > > Bulls -12.4
      > > Hawks -12.3
      > > Wizards -9.7
      > > Clips -7.6
      > >
      > > I got these by adding up the net differentials at
      > > each position. Let
      > > me know if it isn't clear how I arrived at these
      > > numbers.
      > >
      > > THESE NUMBERS PROVE THAT THE BEST WAY TO BUILD A
      > > WINNING TEAM IS WITH
      > > PLAYERS WHO GIVE YOU THE HIGHEST PER DIFF AT THEIR
      > > RESPECTIVE
      > > POSITIONS! The caveat of course is that they play
      > > enough minutes. This
      > > also proves why a good bench is so important. If a
      > > bench player comes
      > > in and gets lit up he's lowering his teams PER
      > > differential.
      > >
      > > Who are some unsung heroes when it comes to PER
      > > differential? (%M at
      > > P) this means % of teams minutes they played at the
      > > position I have
      > > them listed under.
      > >
      > > P (%M at P) Diff
      > > SG Mason 14 8.5
      > > PG Boykins 27 7.8
      > > SF Posey 28 6.5
      > > C Haywood 37 6
      > > PF Cardinal28 5.6
      > >
      > > Am I suggesting that this starting five (if health
      > > and supported by a
      > > decent bench) would win 50+ games? Absolutely!
      > > Worrying about whether
      > > a team is offensive or defensive is silly and misses
      > > the point, which
      > > is simply to be better than your competition!
      > >
      > > The PER differential also allows you to tell which
      > > positions a player
      > > is most effective at. Some guys are equally
      > > effective at 2 positions,
      > > like Duncan at C and PF. Other guys are much less
      > > effective when
      > > playing out of position, like when Cardinal plays
      > > the 3.
      > >
      > > I have made an excel spreadsheet for most of the
      > > players in the L
      > > ranking PER Diff, I could email it to someone...
      > >
      > > Oh yeah, the PER differential even demonstrates how
      > > bad everyones
      > > least favorite player 'Toine truly is. His PER at
      > > the PF spot is 16.0
      > > but the opposing PF is 19.5. A PER differential of
      > > -3.5, and proof
      > > that he shouldn't be allowed on the basketball
      > > court!
      > >
      > >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
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    • Daniel Dickey
      ... Isn t zone played some in the NBA? Don t players play a variety of matchups in a game? Isn t it often hard to classify what position a player really plays
      Message 34 of 34 , May 7 5:27 PM
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        >From: "mrintp2000" <shzys@...>
        >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
        >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
        >Subject: [APBR_analysis] The most important stat that nobody seems to use!
        >(PER differential)
        >Date: Mon, 03 May 2004 23:11:09 -0000
        >
        >I've read a lot of the discussion about the PER and many people seem
        >to correctly regard it as the best way to measure a players
        >production. But even better, is to measure a player production vs. his
        >opposing player. This way, defense is correctly valued by the stats
        >without an overemphasis on creating defensive stats that don't exist
        >or overvaluing unimportant stats. Allow me to illustrate with an
        >example...

        Isn't zone played some in the NBA? Don't players play a variety of matchups
        in a game?

        Isn't it often hard to classify what position a player really plays (let
        alone the position he defends)?

        Don't get me wrong - the PER differential can give SOME insight. But we
        need to remember the limitations.

        I can promise you that Reggie Miller's low opposing SG PER can be greatly
        attributed to Ron Artest (and maybe a few others). That's the type of thing
        I'm talking about.

        Dan D.

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