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Re: [APBR_analysis] The most important stat that nobody seems to use! (PER differential)

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  • Gabe Farkas
    two thoughts: 1) I m wondering where Artest is on the %difference list. People have been touting his ability to hold opposing players to 8 ppg or something
    Message 1 of 34 , May 3, 2004
      two thoughts:

      1) I'm wondering where Artest is on the %difference
      list. People have been touting his ability to hold
      opposing players to 8 ppg or something like that,
      while he scored 17. I would assume that would show up
      somehow.

      2) I disagree that it doesn't matter if you have an
      offensive or defensive team. Team chemistry and a
      cohesive strategy are pretty important in my book.
      Just look at the Pistons: everyone knows their role
      and they play team D.


      --- mrintp2000 <shzys@...> wrote:
      > I've read a lot of the discussion about the PER and
      > many people seem
      > to correctly regard it as the best way to measure a
      > players
      > production. But even better, is to measure a player
      > production vs. his
      > opposing player. This way, defense is correctly
      > valued by the stats
      > without an overemphasis on creating defensive stats
      > that don't exist
      > or overvaluing unimportant stats. Allow me to
      > illustrate with an
      > example...
      >
      > Stromile Swift has a high PER of 18.6 when he plays
      > the PF position.
      > Impressive, but less impressive when you see that
      > his opposing PF has
      > a PER of 18.0. This equates to a modestly impressive
      > .6 PER
      > differential.
      > http://www.82games.com/03MEM13C.HTM
      >
      > Now in a similar number of minutes at the PF spot
      > Chris Bosh has a low
      > PER of 13.7, while his opponents were 12.8. This
      > also works out to a
      > modestly impressive .8 PER differential.
      > http://www.82games.com/03TOR16C.HTM
      >
      > Why is this so important? Because Swift and Bosh
      > played about equally
      > well versus their opponents. Swift had better
      > production and worse
      > defense, ultimately it's a wash. If we had just
      > looked at PER we would
      > have wrongly assumed that Swift had a much better
      > season.
      >
      > I call this the PER differential. The best players
      > in the L are at the
      > top of course-
      >
      > Name Diff
      > Garnett 16.7
      > Duncan 16.1
      > Shaq 14.6
      > Ming 12
      > Allen 11.2
      > Kobe 10.2
      > Kirlenko 9
      >
      > What really proves the tremendous value of the PER
      > differential is the
      > correlation between team PER differential and
      > winning percentage. You
      > guys have to forgive me, I have no stats background
      > (just years of
      > watching hoops) so I can't give you a number on the
      > correlation. But
      > check this out, here are the top teams ranked by PER
      > differential
      > during the regular season. (done just before season
      > end so these
      > numbers may have changed slightly-taken from
      > 82games.com)
      >
      > Team Diff
      > Spurs 13.3
      > Wolves 12.3
      > Pistons 11
      > Pacers 9.5
      > Kings 9.5
      > Lakers 8.8
      >
      > And the worst?
      >
      > Team Diff
      > Tragic -13.5
      > Bulls -12.4
      > Hawks -12.3
      > Wizards -9.7
      > Clips -7.6
      >
      > I got these by adding up the net differentials at
      > each position. Let
      > me know if it isn't clear how I arrived at these
      > numbers.
      >
      > THESE NUMBERS PROVE THAT THE BEST WAY TO BUILD A
      > WINNING TEAM IS WITH
      > PLAYERS WHO GIVE YOU THE HIGHEST PER DIFF AT THEIR
      > RESPECTIVE
      > POSITIONS! The caveat of course is that they play
      > enough minutes. This
      > also proves why a good bench is so important. If a
      > bench player comes
      > in and gets lit up he's lowering his teams PER
      > differential.
      >
      > Who are some unsung heroes when it comes to PER
      > differential? (%M at
      > P) this means % of teams minutes they played at the
      > position I have
      > them listed under.
      >
      > P (%M at P) Diff
      > SG Mason 14 8.5
      > PG Boykins 27 7.8
      > SF Posey 28 6.5
      > C Haywood 37 6
      > PF Cardinal28 5.6
      >
      > Am I suggesting that this starting five (if health
      > and supported by a
      > decent bench) would win 50+ games? Absolutely!
      > Worrying about whether
      > a team is offensive or defensive is silly and misses
      > the point, which
      > is simply to be better than your competition!
      >
      > The PER differential also allows you to tell which
      > positions a player
      > is most effective at. Some guys are equally
      > effective at 2 positions,
      > like Duncan at C and PF. Other guys are much less
      > effective when
      > playing out of position, like when Cardinal plays
      > the 3.
      >
      > I have made an excel spreadsheet for most of the
      > players in the L
      > ranking PER Diff, I could email it to someone...
      >
      > Oh yeah, the PER differential even demonstrates how
      > bad everyones
      > least favorite player 'Toine truly is. His PER at
      > the PF spot is 16.0
      > but the opposing PF is 19.5. A PER differential of
      > -3.5, and proof
      > that he shouldn't be allowed on the basketball
      > court!
      >
      >





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    • Daniel Dickey
      ... Isn t zone played some in the NBA? Don t players play a variety of matchups in a game? Isn t it often hard to classify what position a player really plays
      Message 34 of 34 , May 7, 2004
        >From: "mrintp2000" <shzys@...>
        >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
        >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
        >Subject: [APBR_analysis] The most important stat that nobody seems to use!
        >(PER differential)
        >Date: Mon, 03 May 2004 23:11:09 -0000
        >
        >I've read a lot of the discussion about the PER and many people seem
        >to correctly regard it as the best way to measure a players
        >production. But even better, is to measure a player production vs. his
        >opposing player. This way, defense is correctly valued by the stats
        >without an overemphasis on creating defensive stats that don't exist
        >or overvaluing unimportant stats. Allow me to illustrate with an
        >example...

        Isn't zone played some in the NBA? Don't players play a variety of matchups
        in a game?

        Isn't it often hard to classify what position a player really plays (let
        alone the position he defends)?

        Don't get me wrong - the PER differential can give SOME insight. But we
        need to remember the limitations.

        I can promise you that Reggie Miller's low opposing SG PER can be greatly
        attributed to Ron Artest (and maybe a few others). That's the type of thing
        I'm talking about.

        Dan D.

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