Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Major Update of WINVAL Ratings Through 2003-04

Expand Messages
  • Craig Biddle
    John Hollinger wrote:I agree with Daniel. I think you have to make a prima facie case for not counting garbage time stats before making
    Message 1 of 17 , May 2, 2004
    • 0 Attachment


      John Hollinger <alleyoop2@...> wrote:
      I agree with Daniel. I think you have to make a prima facie case for
      not counting garbage time stats before making the decision to
      overweight "clutch" stats.



      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Daniel Dickey"
      wrote:
      >
      >
      >
      > >From: "dan_t_rosenbaum"
      > >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      > >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      > >Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Major Update of WINVAL Ratings
      Through 2003-04
      > >Date: Thu, 29 Apr 2004 18:02:03 -0000
      >
      > >Here is my exact code. Clock measures the minutes elapsed in the
      > >game at the beginning of the observation. Three minutes left in the
      > >game (in regulation or in overtime) is counted as 45. Margin is the
      > >absolute value of the difference in scores at the beginning of the
      > >observation.
      > >
      > >ptime=max(0,(clock-36)/12);
      > >marg10=10-ptime*7;
      > >wgt=10*(1+ptime)*max(0,min(1,(1-(margin/marg10-1))));
      > >
      > >Basically, in the first three quarters, full weight is given to any
      > >part of a game where the margin is less than 10 and no weight is
      > >given if it is more than 20. Between 10 and 20, the weight is
      phased
      > >from full to zero.
      > >
      > >This is basically what happens in the fourth quarter as well,
      except
      > >that I decrease the margin from 10 (20) to 3 (6) from the beginning
      > >to the end of the fourth quarter. Also, ceteris paribus, the end of
      > >the quarter counts more than the beginning of the quarter.
      > >
      > >At the end of all of this, I renormalize the weights so that on
      > >average minutes in the fourth quarter count the same as those in
      the
      > >first three quarters.
      >
      > So a 4 point lead with 11 minutes left in the game has "less" value
      than a
      > 11 point lead with 13 minutes left in the game? Of course - I very
      well
      > could be reading this wrong.
      >
      > I also tend to think that EVERY minute should count just a little
      bit - EVEN
      > if it's in a blowout. These garbage players aren't going to not
      try (if
      > they wanna play in the future) - and it doesn't seem quite fair
      that a guy
      > could come in and play extremely well for 5 minutes and not have it
      count at
      > all. I mean - I know that garbage time had no true value to the
      team
      > win/loss wise - but doesn't it show a little bit the value of the
      player
      > still?
      >
      > Maybe this is part of the Frahm situation? He has so few minutes -
      and
      > probably most of them are garbage time. Maybe his poorer play just
      happened
      > during this time - and his better play happened the few minutes
      (percentage
      > wise) that counted?
      >
      > _________________________________________________________________
      > Express yourself with the new version of MSN Messenger! Download
      today -
      > it's FREE! http://messenger.msn.com/go/onm00200471ave/direct/01/



      ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
      Buy Ink Cartridges or Refill Kits for your HP, Epson, Canon or Lexmark
      Printer at MyInks.com. Free s/h on orders $50 or more to the US & Canada.
      http://www.c1tracking.com/l.asp?cid=5511
      http://us.click.yahoo.com/mOAaAA/3exGAA/qnsNAA/wHUolB/TM
      ---------------------------------------------------------------------~->


      Yahoo! Groups Links

      <*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
      http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/

      <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
      APBR_analysis-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com

      <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
      http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/

       

      A much simpler approach appears to me to be - what percentage of his team's minutes in the 4th quarter of "close" games did the guy play, and what percentage of "garbage" minutes.  His coach has a vested interest in getting him onto the floor in close games if he's one of his team's 5 best players, and also a vested interest in resting his 5 best players in garbage time.

      I suggest defining "garbage time" as when one team has a lead sufficient to give it a 95% chance to win given the currrent score differential.  Young guys are going to start out the season getting garbage minutes, but if they are truly playing well, that ratio is going to change, since the coach gets paid big $$ to know who is doing the job and would like to continue doing so.

      This stat should be reasonably calculable.  I think measurable production in the late stages of close games is somewhat less important than mere presence, given our current ability to measure production.  Maybe some day that will change, but I, for one, am not really excited about the likelihood of finding 14,500 man-hours to break down game tapes to generate the Artest stats for every player in the league.  But the league coaching staffs have done that for us, if we can only find a way to pick their brains on the cheap.


      Do you Yahoo!?
      Win a $20,000 Career Makeover at Yahoo! HotJobs
    • dan_t_rosenbaum
      Dear DanD and JohnH: First of all, in comparing the game with an 11 point margin with 1 minute left in the third versus a game with a 4 point margin with 11
      Message 2 of 17 , May 2, 2004
      • 0 Attachment
        Dear DanD and JohnH:

        First of all, in comparing the game with an 11 point margin with 1
        minute left in the third versus a game with a 4 point margin with 11
        minutes left in the fourth, here is what my formula comes up with.

        11 point margin, 1 minute left in third: 9.0
        4 point margin, 11 minutes left in fourth: 10.8

        After I normalize the weights so that the average weight in the
        fourth quarter is the same as the rest of the game, here is what I
        end up with (with the average weight being 1).

        11 point margin, 1 minute left in third: 1.00
        4 point margin, 11 minutes left in fourth: 1.29

        So I am counting latter situation much heavier.

        And on the matter of not counting garbage time at all. I could set
        a minimum weight so that every observation is counted, but then I
        suspect there are going to be a lot of people complain about me
        measuring a bunch of garbage time phenoms. It is a bit of a no-win
        situation.

        But this is not a trivial issue. Here is the distribution of the
        weights. So 9.2 percent of the minutes played (4.5 minutes per
        game) are garbage minutes that according to my weighting system get
        zero weight. Seventy percent of the zero weight minutes take place
        in the fourth quarter, where they make up 28.3 percent of minutes
        played.

        Range Percent Cumulative Percent
        ----------------------------------------------------
        0 9.2 9.2
        0.0-0.1 0.3 9.5
        0.1-0.2 0.9 10.4
        0.2-0.3 1.2 11.6
        0.3-0.4 1.2 12.8
        0.4-0.5 1.5 14.3
        0.5-0.6 1.7 16.1
        0.6-0.7 1.8 17.9
        0.7-0.8 2.2 20.1
        0.8-0.9 2.6 22.7
        0.9-1.0 0.5 23.2
        1.0-1.1 3.0 26.2
        1.1-1.2 62.5 88.8
        1.2-1.3 0.8 89.5
        1.3-1.4 1.4 91.0
        1.4-1.5 1.3 92.3
        1.5-1.6 1.4 93.7
        1.6-1.7 1.3 95.0
        1.7-1.8 1.2 96.2
        1.8-1.9 1.3 97.5
        1.9-2.0 0.9 98.4
        2.0-2.1 0.6 98.9
        2.1-2.2 0.4 99.3
        2.2-2.3 0.2 99.5
        2.3-2.4 0.5 100.0

        Best wishes,
        Dan

        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Daniel Dickey"
        <danthestatman@h...> wrote:
        >
        >
        >
        > >From: "dan_t_rosenbaum" <rosenbaum@u...>
        > >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
        > >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
        > >Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Major Update of WINVAL Ratings
        Through 2003-04
        > >Date: Thu, 29 Apr 2004 18:02:03 -0000
        >
        > >Here is my exact code. Clock measures the minutes elapsed in the
        > >game at the beginning of the observation. Three minutes left in
        the
        > >game (in regulation or in overtime) is counted as 45. Margin is
        the
        > >absolute value of the difference in scores at the beginning of the
        > >observation.
        > >
        > >ptime=max(0,(clock-36)/12);
        > >marg10=10-ptime*7;
        > >wgt=10*(1+ptime)*max(0,min(1,(1-(margin/marg10-1))));
        > >
        > >Basically, in the first three quarters, full weight is given to
        any
        > >part of a game where the margin is less than 10 and no weight is
        > >given if it is more than 20. Between 10 and 20, the weight is
        phased
        > >from full to zero.
        > >
        > >This is basically what happens in the fourth quarter as well,
        except
        > >that I decrease the margin from 10 (20) to 3 (6) from the
        beginning
        > >to the end of the fourth quarter. Also, ceteris paribus, the end
        of
        > >the quarter counts more than the beginning of the quarter.
        > >
        > >At the end of all of this, I renormalize the weights so that on
        > >average minutes in the fourth quarter count the same as those in
        the
        > >first three quarters.
        >
        > So a 4 point lead with 11 minutes left in the game has "less"
        value than a
        > 11 point lead with 13 minutes left in the game? Of course - I
        very well
        > could be reading this wrong.
        >
        > I also tend to think that EVERY minute should count just a little
        bit - EVEN
        > if it's in a blowout. These garbage players aren't going to not
        try (if
        > they wanna play in the future) - and it doesn't seem quite fair
        that a guy
        > could come in and play extremely well for 5 minutes and not have
        it count at
        > all. I mean - I know that garbage time had no true value to the
        team
        > win/loss wise - but doesn't it show a little bit the value of the
        player
        > still?
        >
        > Maybe this is part of the Frahm situation? He has so few minutes -
        and
        > probably most of them are garbage time. Maybe his poorer play
        just happened
        > during this time - and his better play happened the few minutes
        (percentage
        > wise) that counted?
        >
        > _________________________________________________________________
        > Express yourself with the new version of MSN Messenger! Download
        today -
        > it's FREE! http://messenger.msn.com/go/onm00200471ave/direct/01/
      • tajallie@hotmail.com
        ... any ... on ... previously ... I am not sure that true . .I think the cause and effect is when Frahm plays well (read shoots well) he get to stay in the
        Message 3 of 17 , May 3, 2004
        • 0 Attachment
          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@h...>
          wrote:
          > > Maybe this is part of the Frahm situation? He has so few minutes
          > > and probably most of them are garbage time. Maybe his poorer play
          > > just happened during this time - and his better play happened the
          > > few minutes (percentage wise) that counted?
          >
          > Most people have made the opposite argument -- that Frahm's good
          > unadjusted plus-minus (+10.0 Roland Rating, almost twice that of
          any
          > other Sonics player save the four-minute effort of Leon Smith) is
          > largely due to him playing in garbage time and leading the Sonics
          on
          > runs along the lines of the 12/10 Boston game I mentioned
          previously
          > and the New Jersey game the night before.
          >
          > I was genuinely surprised to see Frahm rate so extraordinarily well
          > in DanVAL given the "clutch" adjustment.
          >
          > The Sonics simply have played well with Frahm in the game,
          > regardless the circumstances.

          I am not sure that true . .I think the cause and effect is when Frahm
          plays well (read shoots well) he get to stay in the game. When he
          doesn't shoot well . .the plays only a couple of minutes and sits. I
          think he probably has 8 or so good games that skew his results (not
          sure if skew is the right word, but indicate a greater value of his
          play than otherwise would be true).
        • Kevin Pelton
          Dan - The article is now live at Hoopsworld. Kevin
          Message 4 of 17 , May 3, 2004
          • 0 Attachment
            Dan -

            The article is now live at Hoopsworld.

            Kevin
          • Kevin Pelton
            ... Well, obviously that message was supposed to only go to DanR, but I humbly think the column is worth pimping here anyway, especially since Stuart already
            Message 5 of 17 , May 3, 2004
            • 0 Attachment
              > Dan -
              >
              > The article is now live at Hoopsworld.
              >
              > Kevin

              Well, obviously that message was supposed to only go to DanR, but I
              humbly think the column is worth pimping here anyway, especially
              since Stuart already hit on the Holy Grail metaphor:

              The latest from "Page 23" at Hoopsworld.com by Kevin Pelton:

              The Last NBA Crusade

              If you've seen the third and final Indiana Jones movie, "Indiana
              Jones and the Last Crusade", you probably recall what the hero
              encounters on his way to find the Holy Grail -- skulls and skeletons
              of those who have gone before him, also searching for the Holy Grail
              only to give their lives in the chase.

              Things aren't quite as dire when it comes to the search for the Holy
              Grail of rating systems by basketball's statistical analysts, but
              there are plenty of skeletons drying in the sun if you look through
              the history of such efforts.

              Over there is TENDEX, Doug Heeren's revolutionary first strike for
              using player statistics in a comprehensive rating form. Beside it
              lies Manley Credits, the simplification of TENDEX with no
              complicated pace factor to complicate, now resurrected as
              NBA.com's " Efficiency Rating System".

              Scattered throughout are other linear-weights formulas, with various
              values for blocks, steals, and whatever else. Squint hard enough and
              you might even find my own VORP system.

              None of these efforts, however, has succeeded in its quest to
              provide one rating system that's all we need to evaluate players.

              Dean Oliver, the author of Basketball on Paper, thinks there's a
              good reason for that -- the Holy Grail, at least the NBA version, is
              apocryphal, a myth blindly chased despite the fact that it does not
              exist.

              Oliver has won me over as a convert. No single rating system can
              ever provide enough subtlety, enough nuance, that it will be all we
              need. A balanced perspective, one that considers multiple rating
              systems as well as personal observation, is the only way to go.

              But that doesn't mean we can't make better rating systems. . . .

              Read the rest of the column:
              http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_8137.shtml
            • Daniel Dickey
              ... OK- cool - that makes sense. ... Count me as one that WOULD NOT complain about measuring garbage time. You obviously would have it weighted quite a bit
              Message 6 of 17 , May 5, 2004
              • 0 Attachment
                >From: "dan_t_rosenbaum" <rosenbaum@...>
                >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
                >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
                >Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Major Update of WINVAL Ratings Through 2003-04
                >Date: Mon, 03 May 2004 02:42:40 -0000
                >
                >Dear DanD and JohnH:
                >
                >First of all, in comparing the game with an 11 point margin with 1
                >minute left in the third versus a game with a 4 point margin with 11
                >minutes left in the fourth, here is what my formula comes up with.
                >
                >11 point margin, 1 minute left in third: 9.0
                >4 point margin, 11 minutes left in fourth: 10.8

                OK- cool - that makes sense.

                >After I normalize the weights so that the average weight in the
                >fourth quarter is the same as the rest of the game, here is what I
                >end up with (with the average weight being 1).
                >
                >11 point margin, 1 minute left in third: 1.00
                >4 point margin, 11 minutes left in fourth: 1.29
                >
                >So I am counting latter situation much heavier.
                >
                >And on the matter of not counting garbage time at all. I could set
                >a minimum weight so that every observation is counted, but then I
                >suspect there are going to be a lot of people complain about me
                >measuring a bunch of garbage time phenoms. It is a bit of a no-win
                >situation.

                Count me as one that WOULD NOT complain about measuring garbage time. You
                obviously would have it weighted quite a bit less. PLUS you are already
                taking into account opposing lineups and other teamates on the court, etc.

                I do think we aren't getting a complete picture of a player that already has
                limited minutes to analyze when we ignore much of his performance (because
                he mainly is a "garbage time" player). So - I for one feel there should be
                a minimum small weight for garbage time.

                By the way - it looks like you might be weighting max clutch time at about
                twice the value of "normal" time- when it is all said and done - is this
                right? That kinda fits how I've envisioned looking at clutch performance -
                except I always thought the max having a weight of 2, normal 1, and
                "garbage" 0.5. Maybe 3, 1, and 0.33 would be even better. Who knows.

                Dan D

                _________________________________________________________________
                Express yourself with the new version of MSN Messenger! Download today -
                it's FREE! http://messenger.msn.com/go/onm00200471ave/direct/01/
              • tajallie@hotmail.com
                Dan, Having been one of the defenders of limiting the value of garbage time credit, count me as one who really doesn t care rather you have a zero value for
                Message 7 of 17 , May 5, 2004
                • 0 Attachment
                  Dan,

                  Having been one of the defenders of limiting the value of garbage
                  time credit, count me as one who really doesn't care rather you have
                  a zero value for garbage time or some minimum value (in other words
                  you wouldn't hear me screaming if you added a minimum value). While I
                  agree there should probably be some value for performing well when
                  you team is down by 25 pts in the fourth, the truth is that if you
                  are performing well enough to matter, you will play more non-garbage
                  minutes. . .I think it would be fine to give some value but I don't
                  think it hurts to give none.

                  Mike/Bob:

                  Andre Miller this season

                  Jump
                  62% .376
                  Close
                  36% .607
                  Dunk
                  1% .800
                  Tips
                  1% .714
                  Inside
                  38% .612

                  Last season

                  Jump
                  74% .369
                  Close
                  26% .557
                  Dunk
                  0% .667
                  Tips
                  0% .667
                  Inside
                  26% .560

                  To me, this would seem to bear out that Denver does have better
                  spacing and that playing with a very active big man like Camby,
                  instead of low post player like Brand, along with a wing that often
                  demands a double-team like 'Melo could easily be the reason for
                  Miller's improvement. I suspect if you charted where he got his
                  points from, you would find offensive rebounding due to 'Melo double
                  teams and more focus on Camby, Nene resulted in more flexibity for
                  Andre to crash the boards (rather than actual drives, in which case
                  we would expect the close shots to maintain a 56% instead of
                  improving to 61% although it could just be deviation noise).

                  BTW: Despite the stats, I think it was a toss-up between
                  Miller, 'Melo, and Camby for Denver's MVP as all three were clearly
                  more important than everyone else. Basically against any good team,
                  Denver needed to have two of those three play well to win.
                  Furthermore, Miller is probably the best position / technical
                  rebounder on the team (i.e. he understands when and where to crash
                  the boards and how to box out better than any other Nugget . .I
                  beleive those benefits are underated by both the stats and perception
                  of value).
                Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.