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Re: they did it again

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  • John Hollinger
    I completely disagree on Swift. He was used as a backup center, but he s 6-9 and 225 pounds. In other words, he s a power forward whose minutes are blocked by
    Message 1 of 14 , Apr 30, 2004
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      I completely disagree on Swift. He was used as a backup center, but
      he's 6-9 and 225 pounds. In other words, he's a power forward whose
      minutes are blocked by Pau Gasol. Hubie just used him at backup
      center because they didn't have anyone else. I think he's very
      similar to Randolph in terms of being a guy who would give 20 and 10
      with marginal defense as a starter.

      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@h...>
      > I think both of the recent discussions here come down to one thing:
      > context.
      > One aspect of Harrington's context has already been alluded to --
      > the level of opposition. There are many more differences between
      > performance and Prince's, however.
      > Al Harrington has been in the NBA for six seasons, and while he's
      > come off the bench, he's been a regular player. We know more or
      > what he's capable of and where he is as a player. Tayshaun Prince,
      > on the other hand, barely played during the regular seaosn as a
      > rookie, and his ability to contribute at the NBA level largely
      > remained a question mark.
      > Along the same lines, Harrington's production isn't so far from
      > expectations for him as Prince becoming a major contributor was.
      > Context also matters for Zach Randolph. I think you do yourself a
      > major disservice to lump all players whose productivity exceeds
      > their production (that is, good performance in limited minutes)
      > together, as there are numerous reasons for this.
      > In Randolph's case, we're talking about a second-year player on a
      > veteran, competitive team, playing behind a former All-Star not far
      > removed from his prime. From my outside perspective, it doesn't
      > that Maurice Cheeks really accepted the possibility of playing
      > Randolph and Wallace together until injuries necessitated it during
      > the playoffs -- when Randolph continued to be as outstanding as he
      > was in limited regular-season minutes and was a major factor in the
      > Blazers coming back to take the Mavericks the distance.
      > Given those facts, it seems reasonable to me that Randolph's
      > was better than his playing time indicated, and he was a breakout
      > candidate.
      > This is not the case with other players. Stromile Swift might be a
      > good example. At center, Swift is behind an adequate but certainly
      > not outstanding starter in Lorenzen Wright, with plenty of playing
      > time available because he can also play power forward.
      > Swift rates very well by our systems, but my observation has been
      > that he is one of the least intelligent players in the league, a
      > major reason he doesn't play more than he does.
      > Looking at the players listed this season, besides Swift, we see
      > other players whose "breakout" credentials are limited at best.
      > Antonio Daniels is a 29-year-old who never previously approximated
      > this level of performance in six NBA seasons. I don't think anyone
      > who followed him this season -- not even me, one of his biggest
      > fans -- would say that the statistics we calculate for Daniels
      > really reflect his performance on the court.
      > Brian Cardinal is an intriguing case, as a 26-year-old who had
      > barely played during his first three seasons. I think he will
      > continue to be a contributor next season, but repeating this year's
      > performance seems unlikely.
      > Mehmet Okur is already a starter who, barring a change of team, is
      > unlikely to see his role change significantly next season.
      > Marquis Daniels is the most similar player to Randolph, as a young
      > player on a competing team. Unlike Randolph, Daniels has gotten a
      > chance to be a major contributor, although it has not come until
      > late in the season, which means his overall per-game statistics are
      > relatively poor. He's the best test of the hypothesis next season.
      > If he stays in Dallas, he seems a good bet to maintain his
      > performance as a starter...
      > Hmm, now I actually look at his performance as a starter for the
      > first time since Dallas played the Sonics April 10, and I realize
      > it's a lot better than I realized -- 17.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.5
      > assists, 51.8% shooting. That will be tough to keep up. But it
      > wouldn't be a surprise to see him make a run like Randolph at MIP
      > a team was smart enough to offer him more money than the Mavericks
      > are willing to match.
      > One interesting player your analysis misses because he averaged
      > points per game is last season's MIP, the reason this post is
      > titled "Re: they did it _again_", Gilbert Arenas. Arenas may not
      > have been mentioned in All-Star discussions last season, but it's
      > opinion he was every bit as effective as Randolph this season.
      > An alternative method to identifying Randolph-type players is
      > provided by Kevin Broom of RealGM.com, who sent me his system a few
      > weeks ago. I've made some slight alterations. Using any per-minute
      > rating you like, the formula is:
      > (EFF*48) - (EFF/G) + (EFF-LGEFF)*48,
      > where LGEFF is the league average per-minute by that rating. I've
      > then cut down the lists by excluding
      > a) Players who played more than 25 mpg, and thus can already be
      > considered regulars
      > b) Players who played less than 500 min
      > c) Players over 25 years of age
      > Kevin described this, and I agree, as a "shopping list" of sorts
      > GMs -- you want to go through and do the analysis I've done above
      > see if these guys are statistical flukes or really potential
      > breakout players.
      > Here are some top players by year:
      > 2003-04
      > 18.9 - Rodney White
      > 18.6 - Marquis Daniels
      > 18.6 - David West
      > 17.5 - Stromile Swift
      > 17.3 - Rasual Butler
      > 2002-03
      > 20.4 - Zach Randolph
      > 18.6 - Etan Thomas
      > 18.4 - Eddy Curry (ouch)
      > 17.5 - Jerome Moiso (ouch)
      > 16.8 - Lonny Baxter
      > 2001-02
      > 20.6 - Stanislav Medvedenko
      > 19.1 - Jamaal Magloire
      > 18.6 - Michael Redd
      > 18.6 - Etan Thomas
      > 18.1 - Jake Voskuhl
      > 2000-01
      > 24.8 - Todd MacCulloch
      > 19.4 - Nazr Mohammed
      > 19.1 - Paul McPherson (I'm going to sign this guy when I get a team)
      > 17.8 - Eddie Robinson (ouch)
      > 17.0 - Corey Maggette
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