Re: they did it again
- I completely disagree on Swift. He was used as a backup center, but
he's 6-9 and 225 pounds. In other words, he's a power forward whose
minutes are blocked by Pau Gasol. Hubie just used him at backup
center because they didn't have anyone else. I think he's very
similar to Randolph in terms of being a guy who would give 20 and 10
with marginal defense as a starter.
--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@h...>
> I think both of the recent discussions here come down to one thing:his
> One aspect of Harrington's context has already been alluded to --
> the level of opposition. There are many more differences between
> performance and Prince's, however.less
> Al Harrington has been in the NBA for six seasons, and while he's
> come off the bench, he's been a regular player. We know more or
> what he's capable of and where he is as a player. Tayshaun Prince,seem
> on the other hand, barely played during the regular seaosn as a
> rookie, and his ability to contribute at the NBA level largely
> remained a question mark.
> Along the same lines, Harrington's production isn't so far from
> expectations for him as Prince becoming a major contributor was.
> Context also matters for Zach Randolph. I think you do yourself a
> major disservice to lump all players whose productivity exceeds
> their production (that is, good performance in limited minutes)
> together, as there are numerous reasons for this.
> In Randolph's case, we're talking about a second-year player on a
> veteran, competitive team, playing behind a former All-Star not far
> removed from his prime. From my outside perspective, it doesn't
> that Maurice Cheeks really accepted the possibility of playingability
> Randolph and Wallace together until injuries necessitated it during
> the playoffs -- when Randolph continued to be as outstanding as he
> was in limited regular-season minutes and was a major factor in the
> Blazers coming back to take the Mavericks the distance.
> Given those facts, it seems reasonable to me that Randolph's
> was better than his playing time indicated, and he was a breakoutif
> This is not the case with other players. Stromile Swift might be a
> good example. At center, Swift is behind an adequate but certainly
> not outstanding starter in Lorenzen Wright, with plenty of playing
> time available because he can also play power forward.
> Swift rates very well by our systems, but my observation has been
> that he is one of the least intelligent players in the league, a
> major reason he doesn't play more than he does.
> Looking at the players listed this season, besides Swift, we see
> other players whose "breakout" credentials are limited at best.
> Antonio Daniels is a 29-year-old who never previously approximated
> this level of performance in six NBA seasons. I don't think anyone
> who followed him this season -- not even me, one of his biggest
> fans -- would say that the statistics we calculate for Daniels
> really reflect his performance on the court.
> Brian Cardinal is an intriguing case, as a 26-year-old who had
> barely played during his first three seasons. I think he will
> continue to be a contributor next season, but repeating this year's
> performance seems unlikely.
> Mehmet Okur is already a starter who, barring a change of team, is
> unlikely to see his role change significantly next season.
> Marquis Daniels is the most similar player to Randolph, as a young
> player on a competing team. Unlike Randolph, Daniels has gotten a
> chance to be a major contributor, although it has not come until
> late in the season, which means his overall per-game statistics are
> relatively poor. He's the best test of the hypothesis next season.
> If he stays in Dallas, he seems a good bet to maintain his
> performance as a starter...
> Hmm, now I actually look at his performance as a starter for the
> first time since Dallas played the Sonics April 10, and I realize
> it's a lot better than I realized -- 17.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.5
> assists, 51.8% shooting. That will be tough to keep up. But it
> wouldn't be a surprise to see him make a run like Randolph at MIP
> a team was smart enough to offer him more money than the Mavericks10.9
> are willing to match.
> One interesting player your analysis misses because he averaged
> points per game is last season's MIP, the reason this post ismy
> titled "Re: they did it _again_", Gilbert Arenas. Arenas may not
> have been mentioned in All-Star discussions last season, but it's
> opinion he was every bit as effective as Randolph this season.for
> An alternative method to identifying Randolph-type players is
> provided by Kevin Broom of RealGM.com, who sent me his system a few
> weeks ago. I've made some slight alterations. Using any per-minute
> rating you like, the formula is:
> (EFF*48) - (EFF/G) + (EFF-LGEFF)*48,
> where LGEFF is the league average per-minute by that rating. I've
> then cut down the lists by excluding
> a) Players who played more than 25 mpg, and thus can already be
> considered regulars
> b) Players who played less than 500 min
> c) Players over 25 years of age
> Kevin described this, and I agree, as a "shopping list" of sorts
> GMs -- you want to go through and do the analysis I've done aboveto
> see if these guys are statistical flukes or really potential
> breakout players.
> Here are some top players by year:
> 18.9 - Rodney White
> 18.6 - Marquis Daniels
> 18.6 - David West
> 17.5 - Stromile Swift
> 17.3 - Rasual Butler
> 20.4 - Zach Randolph
> 18.6 - Etan Thomas
> 18.4 - Eddy Curry (ouch)
> 17.5 - Jerome Moiso (ouch)
> 16.8 - Lonny Baxter
> 20.6 - Stanislav Medvedenko
> 19.1 - Jamaal Magloire
> 18.6 - Michael Redd
> 18.6 - Etan Thomas
> 18.1 - Jake Voskuhl
> 24.8 - Todd MacCulloch
> 19.4 - Nazr Mohammed
> 19.1 - Paul McPherson (I'm going to sign this guy when I get a team)
> 17.8 - Eddie Robinson (ouch)
> 17.0 - Corey Maggette