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RE: [APBR_analysis] Major Update of WINVAL Ratings Through 2003-0 4

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  • McKibbin, Stuart
    How close is this to the Holy Grail? What more could be asked of an evaluation method? It adjusts for who you play with, who you play against, home or away,
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 30, 2004
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      How close is this to the Holy Grail? What more could be asked of an
      evaluation method? It adjusts for who you play with, who you play against,
      home or away, blowout or nail-biter, fast pace or slow. I also like the
      assumption that 85% of contributions are reflected in the score. I
      (non-economist, non-statistics professional) am impressed.

      It's interesting that despite Kirilenko being someone you can't run your
      offense through he is such a big difference maker. My assumption is that the
      focal point of your offense counts in the determination of who is the "best
      player". The other surprising thing to me is that Yao is rated so low.

      Finally, I would suggest is that playoff performance should be factored in
      somehow (which I think MikeG considers in his ratings).

      Best Wishes,
      Stuart

      -----Original Message-----
      From: rosenbaum@...
      Sent: Wednesday, April 28, 2004 7:56 PM
      To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com; rosenbaum@...
      Subject: [APBR_analysis] Major Update of WINVAL Ratings Through 2003-04


      I have completed a major update of my WINVAL ratings (using data from
      Roland at 82games.com) for both 2002-03 and 2003-04. I have come up
      with a way to combine my adjusted plus/minus ratings with more
      traditional game statistics-based rating, and the end results are
      player ratings that are fairly precisely estimated.

      This is a very long document, so I apologize for that. But I think
      there is a few things there that folks will be interested in.

      http://www.uncg.edu/eco/rosenbaum/NBA/winval2.htm

      I still really need a piece to introduce what I am doing to a more
      general audience. I had something like that that ESPN.com considered
      running, but that didn't work out. Let me play around a bit more
      with that, and I will post that shortly.





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