RE: [APBR_analysis] Major Update of WINVAL Ratings Through 2003-0 4
- How close is this to the Holy Grail? What more could be asked of an
evaluation method? It adjusts for who you play with, who you play against,
home or away, blowout or nail-biter, fast pace or slow. I also like the
assumption that 85% of contributions are reflected in the score. I
(non-economist, non-statistics professional) am impressed.
It's interesting that despite Kirilenko being someone you can't run your
offense through he is such a big difference maker. My assumption is that the
focal point of your offense counts in the determination of who is the "best
player". The other surprising thing to me is that Yao is rated so low.
Finally, I would suggest is that playoff performance should be factored in
somehow (which I think MikeG considers in his ratings).
Sent: Wednesday, April 28, 2004 7:56 PM
To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com; rosenbaum@...
Subject: [APBR_analysis] Major Update of WINVAL Ratings Through 2003-04
I have completed a major update of my WINVAL ratings (using data from
Roland at 82games.com) for both 2002-03 and 2003-04. I have come up
with a way to combine my adjusted plus/minus ratings with more
traditional game statistics-based rating, and the end results are
player ratings that are fairly precisely estimated.
This is a very long document, so I apologize for that. But I think
there is a few things there that folks will be interested in.
I still really need a piece to introduce what I am doing to a more
general audience. I had something like that that ESPN.com considered
running, but that didn't work out. Let me play around a bit more
with that, and I will post that shortly.
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