Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: Offensive Rebounding Part of Offensive Rating

Expand Messages
  • roland_beech
    ... actually I think there is a way to measure a negative associated with offensive rebounding to mitigate the effect somewhat. Namely defensive rebounds
    Message 1 of 11 , Apr 3, 2004
    • 0 Attachment
      > The problem with the offensive rebounding part is that unlike the
      > points part or assist part, there is no negative associated with
      > offensive rebounds.

      actually I think there is a way to measure a negative associated
      with offensive rebounding to mitigate the effect somewhat.
      Namely "defensive rebounds allowed"

      if we measure the ratio of a player's offensive rebounds to the
      times the other team or the other team's counterpart player gets the
      defensive rebound you have some basis for forming an adjustment for
      the player based on the expectations for the position the player
      plays at.

      So a center who grabs 3 rebounds, but gives up 12 defensive rebounds
      to the opposing center would be underperforming relative to a guard
      who grabs 2 off rebounds to 3 def rebs allowed...

      at the same time with usage rates as Dean/Bob mention you can also
      adjust to downgrade the Rodman types.

      Another avenue is to look at "first shot offense" versus "second+
      shot offense" within possessions. I'll be getting round to an
      article on this at some point (no doubt after the regular season
      concludes) and it will be interesting to see with a guy like Dampier
      what his numbers are for the first shot (he will be very strong on
      the second shot since many of his offensive rebounds lead to
      immediate dunks)

      of course, compartementalizing different areas on offense may also
      yield very notable numbers
    • Gabe Farkas
      your point about turnovers interests me. i m curious, using your method, what the flip side of turnovers is? in other words, if Ron Artest steals the ball from
      Message 2 of 11 , Apr 4, 2004
      • 0 Attachment
        your point about turnovers interests me. i'm curious,
        using your method, what the flip side of turnovers is?

        in other words, if Ron Artest steals the ball from
        Shaq, then Artest is credited with a Steal (gaining of
        possession) and Shaq is "credited" with a Turnover
        (losing of possession). However, at the end of the
        game, the Lakers will almost invariably have
        registered more Turnovers than the Pacers have Steals.

        thus, is there any positive value credited to the
        Pacers in some way for the balance of Turnovers
        committed by the Lakers that were not the result of
        Steals?

        does that make sense?


        --- bchaikin@... wrote:
        > The problem with the offensive rebounding part is
        > that unlike the points part
        > or assist part, there is no negative associated with
        > offensive rebounds.....
        >
        >
        > But a player attempting to get more offensive
        > rebounds takes no risk (in his
        > offensive rating), except for maybe an occasional
        > turnover. Thus, players who
        > specialize in offensive rebounds are almost
        > guaranteed to have high offensive
        > ratings....
        >
        > the act of actually getting an offensive or
        > defensive rebound has no negative
        > to it because both are in fact completely positive
        > acts - there is no
        > negative to getting a rebound, just as there is no
        > negative to getting a steal. a
        > missed shot is a free ball, like a jump ball, that
        > everyone on the floor
        > theoretically has access to. what you are failing to
        > take into consideration, by
        > implying that there is no negative to a rebound, is
        > that whenever a shot is taken
        > and missed, all 10 players on the court have an
        > opportunity to get that
        > rebound (theoretically an equal opportunity, in
        > reality not, but nonetheless
        > everyone does have the opportunity)....
        >
        > thus you can just as easily give no credit to the
        > player that got an off (or
        > def) rebound, but then credit a negative "missed
        > rebound" to each of the other
        > 9 players that missed getting that rebound each and
        > every time someone does
        > get one. the risk associated in getting an off or
        > def rebound is in not getting
        > it. the statement that "...a player attempting to
        > get more offensive rebounds
        > takes no risk...", if taken at face value, implies a
        > misunderstanding of the
        > process involved. when a player gets an off reb
        > that's one off reb the his 4
        > other teammates did not get, and thus their
        > "offensive ratings" suffer in the
        > fact that they could have gotten that rebound but
        > didn't, and the ratings of
        > the 5 defensive players suffer in that each of them
        > did not get an additional
        > def rebound...
        >
        > shots, missed shots, turnovers, assists, are all
        > acts that are credited to a
        > player because he already has the ball in his hands.
        > he has to at some point
        > do something with it - shoot it, pass it, get
        > fouled, or turn it over (dribbing
        > leads to one of these), and we currently only
        > measure three of these four
        > parameters. but the only way for a player to gain
        > possession of the ball in the
        > first place - is on a throw in, a jump ball, receive
        > a pass, or get a rebound.
        > nobody keeps track of successful throw ins because
        > the vast majority of the
        > time its successful - when its not players gets TOs
        > or STs. same with receiving
        > a pass or gaining possession of a jump ball....
        >
        > thus each time a player takes a shot, we can just as
        > easily forget crediting
        > missed shots and rebounds, and call a missed shot
        > followed by a def reb a
        > "turnover" to the player who shot the ball, or call
        > it "nothing" if the shot is
        > missed and is followed by an off reb. but we don't
        > do this - we break the
        > measurement of the process down even further, into
        > missed shots and rebounds. but
        > since a missed shot is a free ball, like a jump
        > ball, anyone getting the rebound
        > is gaining possession of the ball for his team, and
        > preventing the opposition
        > from gaining possession, both of which have equal
        > and opposite inherent
        > value, and thus off and def rebounds are of the
        > value as a team possession, a
        > positive value...
        >
        > A lot of offensive rebounders don't have high
        > offensive ratings, in fact.�
        > And the ones that do have very low possession
        > usage.� In other words, it
        > reflects the fact that they aren't taking a lot of
        > risks.
        >
        > this is in fact the reality...
        >
        > My skill curves do show that these guys, like Ben
        > Wallace and Dennis Rodman,
        > with high efficiency mainly through offensive boards
        > would drop off
        > significantly if they tried to do more.
        >
        > if trying to do more means other than getting more
        > off rebounds in general i
        > would tend to agree because the vast majority of
        > very good off rebounders have
        > low touches/min and high %TOs, meaning high rates of
        > turnovers per ball
        > possession, and consequently these are not the
        > people you want having the ball in
        > their hands on offense. this year for example danny
        > fortson, reggie evans,
        > chris mihm, nazr mohammed, jahidi white, all
        > excellent off rebounders, turn the
        > ball over more than 10% of the time they get it. but
        > then their are players like
        > shaq who are very good off rebounders and only turn
        > the ball over on 6% of
        > their ball possessions, and thus you do want them to
        > have the ball because he is
        > such an efficient scorer...
        >
        > bob chaikin
        > bchaikin@...
        >
        >
        >
        >


        __________________________________
        Do you Yahoo!?
        Yahoo! Small Business $15K Web Design Giveaway
        http://promotions.yahoo.com/design_giveaway/
      • Mike G
        ... Good question, Gabe. The team gets indirect credit for turnovers forced in the final score. It amounts to an extra possession, and points off
        Message 3 of 11 , Apr 4, 2004
        • 0 Attachment
          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas <gabefark@y...>
          wrote:
          > ... is there any positive value credited to the
          > Pacers in some way for the balance of Turnovers
          > committed by the Lakers that were not the result of
          > Steals?

          Good question, Gabe.

          The team gets indirect credit for "turnovers forced" in the final
          score. It amounts to an extra possession, and "points off
          turnovers" is a often-tracked quantity.

          Individual players don't get direct credit, as turnovers aren't
          credited to players on the defensive side. However, a number of
          accounting systems give indirect credit for team scoring
          differentials; as such, credit can be apportioned for a player's
          minutes on the floor.

          DanR's "corrections" of Roland's in/out figures would seem to
          incorporate this "uncounted" stat, within the team +/- .
        • Gabe Farkas
          Mike, I m not sure that s exactly where I was going with this. Basically, there are two kinds of turnovers: forced and unforced. Right? So, how can a forced
          Message 4 of 11 , Apr 5, 2004
          • 0 Attachment
            Mike,

            I'm not sure that's exactly where I was going with
            this.

            Basically, there are two kinds of turnovers: forced
            and unforced. Right?

            So, how can a forced turnover occur? The other team
            steals the ball.

            And how can an unforced turnover occur? Throwing the
            ball away, double-dribble, traveling, charging, etc.

            My question is this: Other than steals, are there any
            recorded and tabulated statistics that are the
            flip-side of turnovers, or that lead to forced
            turnovers?

            Am I oversimplifying?

            --Gabe


            --- Mike G <msg_53@...> wrote:
            > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas
            > <gabefark@y...>
            > wrote:
            > > ... is there any positive value credited to the
            > > Pacers in some way for the balance of Turnovers
            > > committed by the Lakers that were not the result
            > of
            > > Steals?
            >
            > Good question, Gabe.
            >
            > The team gets indirect credit for "turnovers forced"
            > in the final
            > score. It amounts to an extra possession, and
            > "points off
            > turnovers" is a often-tracked quantity.
            >
            > Individual players don't get direct credit, as
            > turnovers aren't
            > credited to players on the defensive side. However,
            > a number of
            > accounting systems give indirect credit for team
            > scoring
            > differentials; as such, credit can be apportioned
            > for a player's
            > minutes on the floor.
            >
            > DanR's "corrections" of Roland's in/out figures
            > would seem to
            > incorporate this "uncounted" stat, within the team
            > +/- .
            >
            >


            __________________________________
            Do you Yahoo!?
            Yahoo! Small Business $15K Web Design Giveaway
            http://promotions.yahoo.com/design_giveaway/
          • Kevin Pelton
            ... On an individual level? Not yet. Have you seen DeanO s system? some explanation: http://f2.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/kJBxQCBiN7JnB9ZlKgeKp7wq-
            Message 5 of 11 , Apr 5, 2004
            • 0 Attachment
              > My question is this: Other than steals, are there any
              > recorded and tabulated statistics that are the
              > flip-side of turnovers, or that lead to forced
              > turnovers?

              On an individual level? Not yet. Have you seen DeanO's system?

              some explanation:
              http://f2.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/kJBxQCBiN7JnB9ZlKgeKp7wq-
              7TntGsnvp2l3c49Cz03ntrXD0lEWDOD9UVsUoRMb4FPY-1Zb-
              PwL31OG7yaucWm7L7I6WyNqF0YkQ/defstophandchart.xls

              of course, it's all explained in more detail in Chapter 17 of The
              Book:
              http://www.basketballonpaper.com/book.html

              One of the interesting things about DeanO's system is that while the
              stats are primarily defensive, they can be used to evaluate offenses
              as well. When you break out "unforced" turnovers that are really
              charges and deflections off a player and out of bounds, etc., you get
              really unforced turnovers -- throwing the ball out of bounds, for
              example. It's a useful thing to know about an offense.
            • Michael Tamada
              DeanO s defensive box scores that he (and his corps of volunteers) did for the WNBA did this: assign credit for turnovers to one or more defenders. Even
              Message 6 of 11 , Apr 5, 2004
              • 0 Attachment
                DeanO's defensive box scores that he (and his
                corps of volunteers) did for the WNBA did this:
                assign credit for turnovers to one or more
                defenders. Even steals, which under standard
                statistics get credited to only one player, might
                get credited to two if, e.g. in the opinion of the
                stats-keeper, one player stood up the dribbler with
                a double-team, enabling the other to grab the ball.

                If it was something like a 5-second violation or
                shot clock violation, that credit went to the whole
                team ... or did it go to the 5 people on the floor?
                I forget, but the latter would make sense.

                However, those are special statistics not normally
                collected. For most situations, I think MikeG's
                answer is correct; these unforced turnovers only
                show up very indirectly in the defenders' stats.


                --MKT

                -----Original Message-----
                From: Gabe Farkas [mailto:gabefark@...]
                Sent: Monday, April 05, 2004 7:55 AM


                Mike,

                I'm not sure that's exactly where I was going with
                this.

                Basically, there are two kinds of turnovers: forced
                and unforced. Right?

                So, how can a forced turnover occur? The other team
                steals the ball.

                And how can an unforced turnover occur? Throwing the
                ball away, double-dribble, traveling, charging, etc.

                My question is this: Other than steals, are there any
                recorded and tabulated statistics that are the
                flip-side of turnovers, or that lead to forced
                turnovers?

                Am I oversimplifying?

                --Gabe


                --- Mike G <msg_53@...> wrote:
                > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas
                > <gabefark@y...>
                > wrote:
                > > ... is there any positive value credited to the
                > > Pacers in some way for the balance of Turnovers
                > > committed by the Lakers that were not the result
                > of
                > > Steals?
                >
                > Good question, Gabe.
                >
                > The team gets indirect credit for "turnovers forced"
                > in the final
                > score. It amounts to an extra possession, and
                > "points off
                > turnovers" is a often-tracked quantity.
                >
                > Individual players don't get direct credit, as
                > turnovers aren't
                > credited to players on the defensive side. However,
                > a number of
                > accounting systems give indirect credit for team
                > scoring
                > differentials; as such, credit can be apportioned
                > for a player's
                > minutes on the floor.
                >
                > DanR's "corrections" of Roland's in/out figures
                > would seem to
                > incorporate this "uncounted" stat, within the team
                > +/- .
                >
                >


                __________________________________
                Do you Yahoo!?
                Yahoo! Small Business $15K Web Design Giveaway
                http://promotions.yahoo.com/design_giveaway/



                Yahoo! Groups Links
              • Gabe Farkas
                No, I haven t gotten a chance to read the book yet, but I ve been craving it for a few months now. Just haven t gotten around to picking it up. Can you
                Message 7 of 11 , Apr 5, 2004
                • 0 Attachment
                  No, I haven't gotten a chance to read the book yet,
                  but I've been craving it for a few months now. Just
                  haven't gotten around to picking it up. Can you
                  summarize the book in 25 words or less? Kidding, of
                  course.

                  what about taking Charges? are those tracked?

                  --- Kevin Pelton <kpelton08@...> wrote:
                  > > My question is this: Other than steals, are there
                  > any
                  > > recorded and tabulated statistics that are the
                  > > flip-side of turnovers, or that lead to forced
                  > > turnovers?
                  >
                  > On an individual level? Not yet. Have you seen
                  > DeanO's system?
                  >
                  > some explanation:
                  >
                  http://f2.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/kJBxQCBiN7JnB9ZlKgeKp7wq-
                  > 7TntGsnvp2l3c49Cz03ntrXD0lEWDOD9UVsUoRMb4FPY-1Zb-
                  > PwL31OG7yaucWm7L7I6WyNqF0YkQ/defstophandchart.xls
                  >
                  > of course, it's all explained in more detail in
                  > Chapter 17 of The
                  > Book:
                  > http://www.basketballonpaper.com/book.html
                  >
                  > One of the interesting things about DeanO's system
                  > is that while the
                  > stats are primarily defensive, they can be used to
                  > evaluate offenses
                  > as well. When you break out "unforced" turnovers
                  > that are really
                  > charges and deflections off a player and out of
                  > bounds, etc., you get
                  > really unforced turnovers -- throwing the ball out
                  > of bounds, for
                  > example. It's a useful thing to know about an
                  > offense.
                  >
                  >


                  __________________________________
                  Do you Yahoo!?
                  Yahoo! Small Business $15K Web Design Giveaway
                  http://promotions.yahoo.com/design_giveaway/
                • Kevin Pelton
                  ... I m not sure whether you mean in DeanO s system or in general, so I ll answer both questions. In DeanO s system, they re counted as any other forced
                  Message 8 of 11 , Apr 5, 2004
                  • 0 Attachment
                    > No, I haven't gotten a chance to read the book yet,
                    > but I've been craving it for a few months now. Just
                    > haven't gotten around to picking it up. Can you
                    > summarize the book in 25 words or less? Kidding, of
                    > course.
                    >
                    > what about taking Charges? are those tracked?

                    I'm not sure whether you mean in DeanO's system or in general, so
                    I'll answer both questions.

                    In DeanO's system, they're counted as any other forced turnover, not
                    broken out (though certainly one *could* do that).

                    In real life, I think some teams track this (Denver?
                    http://www.nba.com/nuggets/news/notes.pdf ) but it's not official.
                    I'll take a look and see if they're in Harvey Pollack's book.

                    (As an aside, one of the neat things about being part of The Media is
                    the chance to see what things teams track in their game notes, like
                    the Wolves with what we now know as "Roland Ratio" last year -- when
                    there was a lot of general scoffing at the notion that a team could
                    be 25 points better with its star player on the court.)
                  Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.