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Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Article from _The Economist_; yes it's about basketba...

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  • Andy Finkelstein
    I d be willing to bet that Dampier won t get a good look in the offseason, mainly because he s now out for the year with some sort of injury or other... as
    Message 1 of 9 , Apr 2 8:59 PM
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      I'd be willing to bet that Dampier won't get a good look in the offseason, mainly because he's now out for the year with some sort of injury or other...  as far as I recall reading, anyway....  I bet teams would tend to shy away from him because of this...

      - Andy

      bchaikin@... wrote:

       Because Roland lives in the Bay Area, the SF Weekly took him and me to a Warriors game, where, naturally, Dampier was the topic of conversation.  Neither I nor Roland have Dampier being all that valuable, though others here may value him a lot.  So it ended up in
      Tommy's story and that may be what the Economist picked up on for their work.

      dampier may be valuable now (with the individual numbers he's putting up), but almost certainly won't be as a free agent - i.e. if someone looking at him is expecting this kind of performance in the future from him he won't repeat a season like this with any consistency, if at all. it can easily be shown that dampier is having, as JohnH would say, a fluke season (see posting 3370), a fluke good one in this case...

      he's already in his 8th season and 29 years old, and up and to this point has never demonstrated this kind of production before, despite getting substantial playing time. and although he looks like a monster offensive rebounder now, its actually his defensive rebounding that has improved more (from last season). his touches/min and player attributes (what he does once he gets the ball) are pretty much the same as last season (he is getting fouled more however), and in actuaity his touches/min is down from prior years, as is his shot blocking - those two right there would worry me. he is shooting better than ever, getting to the line better than ever, and committing fouls the least amount of his career. i'd bet he won't keep this up, not for any extended period of time in the future. i can't recall any player that was in the league for 7 seasons that had his career year in his 8th season and kept up that kind of production for any length of time...

      he is putting up impressive rebounding numbers for the same reason ben wallace put up super impressive rebounding numbers last year - the presence of notoriously weak rebounders alongside him - in his case clifford robinson getting major minutes in the frontcourt (pistons last season, warriors now), and mike dunleavy, both of whom are awful offensive rebounders. ben wallace is still a great rebounder now, but is not putting up the super rebounding numbers this year he did last season with robinson and michael curry around. if dampier is traded or signed as a free agent next season by another team expecting from him super rebounding numbers for a few more seasons, they will most likely be disappointed, especially when his rebounding numbers come down along with his shooting, he commits more fouls, and his shot blocking doesn't return to previously high levels (two years ago he was blocking almost 6% of all opponents shots, now he's just a little better than half that)...

      bob chaikin
      bchaikin@...

    • Gabe Farkas
      my guess is that he ll go through a similar hype and courting process that Marc Jackson (the tall one, not the 2nd-all-time-assists one) went through a few
      Message 2 of 9 , Apr 3 9:46 AM
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        my guess is that he'll go through a similar hype and
        courting process that Marc Jackson (the tall one, not
        the 2nd-all-time-assists one) went through a few years
        ago, but in the end not be valued that much.


        --- Andy Finkelstein <andyf@...> wrote:
        > I'd be willing to bet that Dampier won't get a good
        > look in the
        > offseason, mainly because he's now out for the year
        > with some sort of
        > injury or other... as far as I recall reading,
        > anyway.... I bet teams
        > would tend to shy away from him because of this...
        >
        > - Andy
        >
        > bchaikin@... wrote:
        >
        > > Because Roland lives in the Bay Area, the SF
        > Weekly took him and me
        > > to a Warriors game, where, naturally, Dampier was
        > the topic of
        > > conversation. Neither I nor Roland have Dampier
        > being all that
        > > valuable, though others here may value him a lot.
        > So it ended up in
        > > Tommy's story and that may be what the Economist
        > picked up on for
        > > their work.
        > >
        > > dampier may be valuable now (with the individual
        > numbers he's putting
        > > up), but almost certainly won't be as a free agent
        > - i.e. if someone
        > > looking at him is expecting this kind of
        > performance in the future
        > > from him he won't repeat a season like this with
        > any consistency, if
        > > at all. it can easily be shown that dampier is
        > having, as JohnH would
        > > say, a fluke season (see posting 3370), a fluke
        > good one in this
        > > case...
        > >
        > > he's already in his 8th season and 29 years old,
        > and up and to this
        > > point has never demonstrated this kind of
        > production before, despite
        > > getting substantial playing time. and although he
        > looks like a monster
        > > offensive rebounder now, its actually his
        > defensive rebounding that
        > > has improved more (from last season). his
        > touches/min and player
        > > attributes (what he does once he gets the ball)
        > are pretty much the
        > > same as last season (he is getting fouled more
        > however), and in
        > > actuaity his touches/min is down from prior years,
        > as is his shot
        > > blocking - those two right there would worry me.
        > he is shooting better
        > > than ever, getting to the line better than ever,
        > and committing fouls
        > > the least amount of his career. i'd bet he won't
        > keep this up, not for
        > > any extended period of time in the future. i can't
        > recall any player
        > > that was in the league for 7 seasons that had his
        > career year in his
        > > 8th season and kept up that kind of production for
        > any length of
        > > time...
        > >
        > > he is putting up impressive rebounding numbers for
        > the same reason ben
        > > wallace put up super impressive rebounding numbers
        > last year - the
        > > presence of notoriously weak rebounders alongside
        > him - in his case
        > > clifford robinson getting major minutes in the
        > frontcourt (pistons
        > > last season, warriors now), and mike dunleavy,
        > both of whom are awful
        > > offensive rebounders. ben wallace is still a great
        > rebounder now, but
        > > is not putting up the super rebounding numbers
        > this year he did last
        > > season with robinson and michael curry around. if
        > dampier is traded or
        > > signed as a free agent next season by another team
        > expecting from him
        > > super rebounding numbers for a few more seasons,
        > they will most likely
        > > be disappointed, especially when his rebounding
        > numbers come down
        > > along with his shooting, he commits more fouls,
        > and his shot blocking
        > > doesn't return to previously high levels (two
        > years ago he was
        > > blocking almost 6% of all opponents shots, now
        > he's just a little
        > > better than half that)...
        > >
        > > bob chaikin
        > > bchaikin@...
        > >
        > >
        > >
        >
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      • Stephen Greenwell
        my guess is that he ll go through a similar hype and courting process that Marc Jackson (the tall one, not the 2nd-all-time-assists one) went through a few
        Message 3 of 9 , Apr 3 11:22 AM
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          my guess is that he'll go through a similar hype and
          courting process that Marc Jackson (the tall one, not
          the 2nd-all-time-assists one) went through a few years
          ago, but in the end not be valued that much.

          I'm not sure if their situations are completely similar, excluding that they both played for the Warriors.  Jackson signed an offer sheet with the Rockets, but the Warriors matched it and then refused to trade him.  As a result, he pouted, arrived to camp out of shape, languished on the bench while management ordered Winters (or whatever Replacement Coach A they had at they time) not to play him, and then was traded to the Timberwolves for Dean Garrett or Cherokee Parks or Sean Rooks (or some other scrub third string center) and a second round pick.

          In that situation, it was clear that Jackson and the Warriors mishandled the situation; Jackson for whining and thus curtailing his ability to actually get dealt, and the Warriors for continually annoying, stalling on deals, and finally getting little in return for who at one time was a Rookie of the Year candidate. 

          In Dampier's case, it seems more likely that teams will view this last year as a fluke, since as others have noted it's a career year at age 29.  However, since he's a center and breathing, some team will take the chance and give him several million a year for the next couple of years.  See: Olowakandi, Michael and Amacechi, John.

          Stephen Greenwell
        • Gabe Farkas
          don t forget also: McIllvaine, Jim. ie, the contract that ruined Shawn Kemp. anyway, my point of comparison was that both were having good/great years that
          Message 4 of 9 , Apr 4 8:56 AM
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            don't forget also: McIllvaine, Jim. ie, the contract
            that ruined Shawn Kemp.

            anyway, my point of comparison was that both were
            having good/great years that came out of nowhere, and
            both were considered flukes.


            --- Stephen Greenwell <sgre6768@...>
            wrote:

            ---------------------------------
            my guess is that he'll gothrough a similar hype and
            courting process that Marc Jackson (the tall one, not
            the 2nd-all-time-assists one) went through a few years
            ago, but in the end not be valued that much.
            I'm not sure if their situations are completely
            similar, excluding thatthey both played for the
            Warriors. Jackson signed an offer sheetwith the
            Rockets, but the Warriors matched it and then refused
            to tradehim. As a result, he pouted, arrived to camp
            out of shape,languished on the bench while management
            ordered Winters (or whateverReplacement Coach A they
            had at they time) not to play him, and then wastraded
            to the Timberwolves for Dean Garrett or Cherokee Parks
            or SeanRooks (or some other scrub third string center)
            and a second roundpick.

            In that situation, it was clear that Jackson and the
            Warriors mishandledthe situation; Jackson for whining
            and thus curtailing his ability toactually get dealt,
            and the Warriors for continually annoying, stallingon
            deals, and finally getting little in return for who at
            one time was aRookie of the Year candidate.

            In Dampier's case, it seems more likely that teams
            will view this lastyear as a fluke, since as others
            have noted it's a career year at age29. However,
            since he's a center and breathing, some team will
            takethe chance and give him several million a year for
            the next couple ofyears. See: Olowakandi, Michael and
            Amacechi, John.

            Stephen Greenwell
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          • Mike G
            Dampier had 2 straight 20-rebound games, and a recent rebounding tear that coincided with an 8-1 streak by the team. He s ended his season as he started it,
            Message 5 of 9 , Apr 4 9:53 AM
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              Dampier had 2 straight 20-rebound games, and a recent rebounding
              tear that coincided with an 8-1 streak by the team.

              He's ended his season as he started it, with a relative lull in the
              middle. Is it a fluke season because he's 29 and should be peaking?

              What should define a Fluke Season? A subsequent season that is not
              as strong? Or a next-season that is a reversion to his career
              average?


              I'm curious what people would care to predict about whether these
              players are having Fluke Seasons. We might define it as whether
              next year they've reverted more than halfway back to their career
              norms.

              Lamar Odom
              Brian Cardinal
              Raja Bell
              Erick Dampier
              Donyell Marshall
              Jim Jackson
              Antonio Daniels
              Joe Johnson
              Fred Hoiberg
              Sam Cassell
            • Dean Oliver
              ... I have found out since writing Basketball on Paper that the supposed contract that ruined Shawn Kemp -- that was a fallacy. Kemp s contract was still
              Message 6 of 9 , Apr 4 12:35 PM
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                --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Gabe Farkas <gabefark@y...> wrote:
                > don't forget also: McIllvaine, Jim. ie, the contract
                > that ruined Shawn Kemp.
                >

                I have found out since writing Basketball on Paper that the supposed
                contract that ruined Shawn Kemp -- that was a fallacy. Kemp's
                contract was still making him more money than McIlvaine. The rumor
                that McIlvaine's contract was bigger than Kemp's was started by a
                reporter who didn't do the right homework. Shawn apparently did still
                want more money and was already starting to have some of the other
                problems reported later on about him. I apologize for perpetuating
                the rumor in the book.

                DeanO

                Dean Oliver
                Author, Basketball on Paper
                http://www.basketballonpaper.com
                "Dean Oliver looks at basketball with a fresh perspective. If you
                want a new way to analyze the game, this book is for you. You'll
                never watch a game the same way again. We use his stuff and it helps
                us." Yvan Kelly, Scout, Seattle Sonics
              • Kevin Pelton
                ... It even goes beyond that. If you want to blame McIlvaine for all of Kemp s unhappiness, you have to explain away the fact that Kemp held out of training
                Message 7 of 9 , Apr 4 2:59 PM
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                  > I have found out since writing Basketball on Paper that the
                  > supposed contract that ruined Shawn Kemp -- that was a fallacy.
                  > Kemp's contract was still making him more money than McIlvaine.
                  > The rumor that McIlvaine's contract was bigger than Kemp's was
                  > started by a reporter who didn't do the right homework. Shawn
                  > apparently did still want more money and was already starting to
                  > have some of the other problems reported later on about him. I
                  > apologize for perpetuating the rumor in the book.

                  It even goes beyond that. If you want to blame McIlvaine for all of
                  Kemp's unhappiness, you have to explain away the fact that Kemp held
                  out of training camp briefly into 1994 -- a mere two years before
                  McIlvaine was signed.

                  Not to mention I'm pretty certain that McIlvaine wasn't the
                  anonymous source who told Peter Vecsey that Kemp was an alcoholic,
                  which I believe to have been the straw that broke the camel's back
                  on Kemp's Sonics career. Nobody will ever convince me that it
                  doesn't all eventually trace back to George Karl, because, well,
                  everything during that time went back to Karl eventually.
                • Michael Tamada
                  ... From: Gabe Farkas [mailto:gabefark@yahoo.com] Sent: Saturday, April 03, 2004 9:47 AM ... Didn t Dampier go through that already, after his semi-breakout
                  Message 8 of 9 , Apr 8 6:19 AM
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                    -----Original Message-----
                    From: Gabe Farkas [mailto:gabefark@...]
                    Sent: Saturday, April 03, 2004 9:47 AM

                    >my guess is that he'll go through a similar hype and
                    >courting process that Marc Jackson (the tall one, not
                    >the 2nd-all-time-assists one) went through a few years
                    >ago, but in the end not be valued that much.

                    Didn't Dampier go through that already, after his
                    semi-breakout 1998 season? Have a promising season,
                    get courted, sign a big contract?


                    --MKT
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