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Re: Article from _The Economist_; yes it's about basketball statistics

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  • Mike G
    ... story_id=2494781 ... and alleyoop.com. ... They might have gotten widely praised from one of the websites mentioned. I see Alleyoop has Dampier in the
    Message 1 of 4 , Apr 2, 2004
      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada" <tamada@o...>
      wrote:
      > Here's an article about statistical analysis of sports, in _The
      Economist_:
      >
      > http://www.economist.com/diversions/displayStory.cfm?
      story_id=2494781
      >
      > The article...moves to basketball! With mentions of 82games.com
      and alleyoop.com.
      >
      >...a "flashy and widely-praised player" is ... Erick Dampier. Who
      >I think might actually be underrated now, his rebounding certainly
      >took a big step up this year, as has his FG%.

      They might have gotten "widely praised" from one of the websites
      mentioned. I see Alleyoop has Dampier in the top 25; I've got him
      about #43.

      Dampier is a good example of a player for whom "improvement" can be
      analyzed. Last year, the Warriors (with Murphy and Foyle playing)
      outrebounded oppositions by 3 per game. This year, they have a
      slight rebounding deficit (-0.7)

      If Dampier's rebounding is scaled to a percentage of "total
      available rebounds", then his percentage is way up this year.
      However, if we dissect what is meant by "available", this can have
      differing values.

      If Murphy or Foyle or Jamison has the angle on the ball, Dampier
      would do well to let him have it. Essentially, it isn't available.

      If it's Cliffy and Cardinal, and they're out and about, then Damp
      should go for everything that comes off the rim.

      So, part of the reason for Dampier's increased rebound rate is that
      there are more occasions to rebound. Quantitatively, this can be
      scaled to the opponent rebound rate (rather than to Opp + GS
      rebounds); and Dampier's effective rebounding improvement is reduced
      by some 6-7%

      This is still dwarfed by his overall improvement (some 40%); but the
      increase is a bit muted.

      And since we see improvements in other aspects of his game, we can
      safely conclude he's rededicated himself, worked hard, etc.


      Then, the Economist article also flatly states the
      82games "conclusion", that the Warriors are better with Damp on the
      bench; of course, they were looking at the "uncorrected" version,
      which does not account for other players on the floor.
    • Dean Oliver
      ... moves to American football and Dave Romer s article (the NY Times article about his paper probably helped here, plus the fact that true to its name, _The
      Message 2 of 4 , Apr 2, 2004
        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada" <tamada@o...>
        wrote:
        > Here's an article about statistical analysis of sports, in _The
        Economist_:
        >
        > http://www.economist.com/diversions/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2494781
        >
        > The article starts out talking about Bill James and sabrmetrics, but
        moves to American football and Dave Romer's article (the NY Times
        article about his paper probably helped here, plus the fact that true
        to its name, _The Economist_ does like to keep track of what sorts of
        research economists are doing, though in general it's actually not a
        magazine about economics). And then it moves to basketball! With
        mentions of 82games.com and alleyoop.com.
        >
        > Although _The Economist_ has plenty of reporters in the US, it is a
        British magazine and it shows here, in their unfamiliarity with
        American sports: they manage to misinterpret some of the sabremetric
        recommendations, and the NBA player they choose to use as an example
        of a "flashy and widely-praised player" is ... Erick Dampier. Who I
        think might actually be underrated now, his rebounding certainly took
        a big step up this year, as has his FG%.

        They may be reading the SF Weekly. The SF Weekly did a piece on
        82games that is here:

        http://www.sfweekly.com/issues/2004-02-11/feature.html/1/index.html

        Because Roland lives in the Bay Area, the SF Weekly took him and me to
        a Warriors game, where, naturally, Dampier was the topic of
        conversation. Neither I nor Roland have Dampier being all that
        valuable, though others here may value him a lot. So it ended up in
        Tommy's story and that may be what the Economist picked up on for
        their work.

        DeanO

        Dean Oliver
        Author, Basketball on Paper
        http://www.basketballonpaper.com
        When basketball teams start playing Moneyball, this is the book
        they'll use!
      • Michael Tamada
        ... From: Dean Oliver [mailto:deano@rawbw.com] Sent: Friday, April 02, 2004 8:09 AM [...] ... [...] ... Actually, now I see that there s also a link to that
        Message 3 of 4 , Apr 7, 2004
          -----Original Message-----
          From: Dean Oliver [mailto:deano@...]
          Sent: Friday, April 02, 2004 8:09 AM

          [...]

          >> Although _The Economist_ has plenty of reporters in the US, it is a
          [...]
          >>recommendations, and the NBA player they choose to use as an example
          >>of a "flashy and widely-praised player" is ... Erick Dampier. Who I

          >They may be reading the SF Weekly. The SF Weekly did a piece on
          >82games that is here:
          >
          >http://www.sfweekly.com/issues/2004-02-11/feature.html/1/index.html
          >
          >Because Roland lives in the Bay Area, the SF Weekly took him and me to
          >a Warriors game, where, naturally, Dampier was the topic of
          >conversation. Neither I nor Roland have Dampier being all that
          >valuable, though others here may value him a lot. So it ended up in
          >Tommy's story and that may be what the Economist picked up on for
          >their work.

          Actually, now I see that there's also a link to that article on the
          82games.com website, so _The Economist_ may've found the article there.

          So Erick Dampier may be getting some notoriety -- is he destined to be
          the basketball version of the sabrmetric whipping boy, the player held
          in high esteem by sportswriters and some GMs but viewed as overrated by
          sabrmetricians? Someone like Vince Coleman, or Garrett Anderson (except
          Anderson keeps improving and is now a good player even by sabrmetric
          standards).


          --MKT
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