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Game State Matrix?

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  • sultanoswat@yahoo.com
    I m a bit confused by the Game State Matrix (.pdf) in the files section. Shouldn t the HomeWin%(lead0) = 1 - RoadWin%(lead0)? If the lead is 0 the game is
    Message 1 of 2 , Mar 31, 2004
      I'm a bit confused by the "Game State Matrix" (.pdf) in the files
      section. Shouldn't the HomeWin%(lead0) = 1 - RoadWin%(lead0)? If the
      lead is 0 the game is tied and it's the same event, so one should be
      the opposite odds as the other.

      It looks like the first line for RoadWin% is messed up, especially
      near closer to the left side.

      Mike
    • Dean Oliver
      ... Uh, yeah, that was a typo or space alien hijacking my computer. I honestly don t know what happened, but that first line was screwed up and I don t know
      Message 2 of 2 , Apr 1, 2004
        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, sultanoswat@y... wrote:
        > I'm a bit confused by the "Game State Matrix" (.pdf) in the files
        > section. Shouldn't the HomeWin%(lead0) = 1 - RoadWin%(lead0)? If the
        > lead is 0 the game is tied and it's the same event, so one should be
        > the opposite odds as the other.
        >
        > It looks like the first line for RoadWin% is messed up, especially
        > near closer to the left side.

        Uh, yeah, that was a typo or space alien hijacking my computer. I
        honestly don't know what happened, but that first line was screwed up
        and I don't know how. I've replaced it. Stupid space aliens.

        Dean Oliver
        Author, Basketball on Paper
        http://www.basketballonpaper.com
        "There are a lot of math guys who just rush from the numbers to the
        conclusion. . .they'll tell you that Shaq is a real good player but
        his team would win a couple more games a year if he could hit a free
        throw. Dean is more than that; he's really struggling to understand
        the actual problem, rather than the statistical after-image of it. I
        learn a lot by reading him." Bill James, author Baseball Abstract
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